5 NFL Week 1 lines we already love, from two big underdogs to the Patriots’ season opener

Historically, my favoriteWeek 1 bets have been targeting a team that didn’t make the playoffs the previous year against a team that was in the playoffs. The logic is simple: The public overvalues playoff teams from the year prior, and thus lines are slightly inflated.

When you toss in the fact this is a heated divisional rivalry, I love the Browns even more. This will be the fourth time the Browns defense has seen Lamar Jackson, and last year, they did well against him in the first meeting (four sacks, two interceptions), and bottled him up for much of the fist half before some horrendous decision-making by former coach Freddie Kitchens flipped the game.

Yes, I have some concern about the Browns starting two new tackles (first round pick Jedrick Wills and free agent signee Jack Conklin), but expect the Browns under new coach Kevin Stefanski to operate out of more two-tight ends sets and run the ball far more than Cleveland did last year. In the first meeting, Nick Chubb had 165 yards rushing; in the second game, he inexplicably had just 15 carries.

Plus, the Ravens may have three new starters in the front seven, and the last time we saw their run defense, it was getting shredded by Derrick Henry in the playoffs. Biggest concern is 1st time head coaches have understandably struggled in the first two weeks over the last two season (1-9-1 straight up, 4-7 ATS).