Week 11 college football picks against the spread recap with Jason McIntyre | WHAT DID YOU LEARN?

Longtime gamblers know that the value usually lies in underdogs … because the house knows the public almost always will lean to the favorites. This year in college football, the elite teams – Ohio State, Clemson, LSU are dominating – going 8-1, 7-3 and 6-3 ATS, respectively.

The Buckeyes have been even better: Going 9-0 in first halves. Backing them in the first half is the move because they’re often resting their starters by the third quarter. Selectively in gambling is how you win … you can certainly find value in underdogs, but for me this season – my success has been backing the top three teams.

LSU continues to be a bet-on team

This one was surprisingly easy, as LSU took a 10-0 lead and never trailed. There were some tense moments about blowing a 33-13 lead … but LSU quarterback Joe Burrow was just fantastic on the ground (64 rush yards) and through the air (31-of-39 for 393 yards and three touchdowns). He made pivotal plays on two fourth quarter touchdown drives to keep Alabama down two scores. As I said on Wednesday: This Alabama defense just isn’t very good. LSU had 559 yards of total offense and averaged 7.1 yards per play.

Don’t underestimate the value of an undefeated team

Minnesota was impressive: They led from start-to-finish and easily covered 6.5 at home. Penn State came in allowing 3.98 yards per play – fourth best in the country but Minnesota rang up 7.7 yards per pass and moved the ball at will all afternoon. The Penn State quarterback Sean Clifford had only been intercepted three times all season … he was picked off three times by Minnesota – including one in the end zone in the final minute.

Wisconsin needs to increase offensive efficiency to be a bet-on team

The Badgers led 21-6 after three quarters … and given how inept the Hawkeyes offense had been all season – Wisconsin’s cover of nearly double digits felt safe. But just like Wisconsin quarterback Jack Coan did against Illinois, he threw a fourth quarter interception. Later, Wisconsin settled for a field goal and gave up a 2-point conversion … and the Badgers were fortunate to survive another uninspiring second half performance.

Ohio State is the best bet in college football

The spread was 42 … the highest the Big Ten has seen in four decades – and the Buckeyes covered easily. Specifically the first half, where they led the overwhelmed Maryland 42-0 – clearly covering the 28 points. Ohio State pulled most starters at the half and still held Maryland to 139 total yards … even without Chase Young (the best defensive player in college football).

Ohio State had a staggering 40 first downs and 705 yards of total offense. I’m not sure how high bookmakers can make OSU’s first half line next week against Rutgers much higher – but I can already tell you I’m taking it.

Sometimes all a team needs is a little motivation to be a bet-on team

Clemson had 28 points before NC State had 28 yards … just wrap your mind around that. Clemson led 42-0 at halftime, and the cover of -32 was never in doubt – even after Clemson played the backups. The Tigers played lethargic through the first month … but finally seem to have shaken it off. Next up is a puzzling Wake Forest team ( 7-2) that was crushed by Virginia Tech, lost 62-59 to Louisville and will be looking for some revenge after Clemson beat them 63-3 last year.