StaTuesday: Twins’ Cruz set to make mark at 40 years old

Nelson Cruz is back with the Minnesota Twins for another season.

Cruz, entering his third season with the Twins, turns 41 in July. He’s given every indication this won’t be his last year playing, especially since he was looking for a multiyear contract this offseason.

Because baseball-reference.com uses June 30 as an age cutoff (Cruz just missed it, having been born July 1), this is considered his age 40 season.

𝙏𝙝𝙚 𝙧𝙚𝙩𝙪𝙧𝙣 𝙤𝙛 𝙉𝙚𝙡𝙨𝙤𝙣 𝘾𝙧𝙪𝙯.#MNTwins 2021 season preview ⤵️ pic.twitter.com/tucEky8LmG

— FOX Sports North (@fsnorth) March 30, 2021

Last year, in the 60-game shortened season, in what was his age-39 season, Cruz hit .303 with 16 home runs, 33 runs and 33 RBI. Those numbers extrapolate out to 37 home runs, 77 runs, 77 RBI and a .595 slugging percentage. In 2019 with Minnesota, Cruz hit .311 with 41 home runs, 81 runs, 108 RBI and a .639 slugging percentage in 120 games. With Seattle in 2018, he batted .256 with 37 home runs, 70 runs and 97 RBI.

If Cruz can put up his usual numbers in 2021, such as above, he’d be doing things rarely seen by a 40-year old. Let’s break it down.

HOME RUNS

Only two players have hit 30+ home runs in their age-40+ season. We’re not going to say Cruz is a lock to become the third, but we’re not betting against it, either.

In fact, 20 homers have been hit someone 40 years or older just 15 times (three players did it twice in their 40s).

The most: David Ortiz’s 38 in 2016. For what it’s worth, Cruz topped 38 home runs five times from 2014-19.

Most home runs in a season age 40+

RBI

Say what you want about RBI as a statistic, but someone has to drive in runs. Cruz has topped 100 RBI in three of the last four seasons, missing by just three in 2018. He also had 108 in 2014 and 93 in 2015, giving him six straight full seasons of 90+.

Only 11 times in MLB history as a player 40 years or older driven in 90 or more runs in a season – Hall of Famer Cap Anson, who played in the 1800s, had three of those, as does fellow 19th century ballplayer Jim O’Rourke.

That means just six times has it occurred in the 20th and 21st centuries. It’ll be tough for Cruz to break the record for most RBI by a player in their 40s but perhaps he could become the fifth to reach 100.

Most RBI in a season age 40+

*- led league

RUNS

Cruz obviously isn’t blessed with great speed nor is he a leadoff hitter, but he hits enough extra-base hits to get himself in scoring position (or just trot around the bases and score on his own home run) that he’s tallied 80+ runs six times since 2012. He had three straight seasons of 90+ runs from 2015-17.

If he can reach 80, as he did with the Twins in 2019, he’d become the 13th 40-year-old (and 16th time overall) to score that amount in a season. It hasn’t been accomplished since 40-year-old Kenny Lofton had 86 runs in 2007. No 40-year-old has reached 90 runs since Dave Winfield in 1992.

Most runs in a season age 40+

BATTING AVERAGE

Cruz is a lifetime .278 hitter, but he’s topped .300 in both of his seasons with Minnesota. He batted .302 for Seattle back in 2015 (his age-34 season).

This century, Ortiz is the only 40-year-old to bat .300. It occurred three times in the 1990s and once in the 1980s.

In other words, it’s rare. Cruz could become the 10th player in his 40s since World War II to bat .300.

Highest batting averages in a season age 40+ (min. 400 PA)

SLUGGING PERCENTAGE

The last time Cruz didn’t slug at least .500 was in 2012 with Texas (.460). He’s slugged .549 or better in five of the last six seasons.

Only six 40-year-olds have slugged .500 or better (Barry Bonds did it twice) in the history of MLB (with at least 400 plate appearances; if you change it to 300 PA, it’s still only 10 total occasions).

In that group, five slugged better than .509 and just two higher than .550.

Highest slugging % in a season age 40+ (min. 400 PA)