NBA odds: Finals MVP futures lines and picks

The NBA playoffs are down to the final four teams as the Conference Finals are in full swing.

With only three matchups remaining, futures bettors have their eyes locked on potential winners of the Bill Russell Trophy, better known as, the NBA Finals Most Valuable Player award.

Will the scintillating Steph Curry, owner of three championship rings, finally get his hands on the coveted Finals MVP trophy? Can Luka Doncic continue his surge into the annals of basketball history by winning the Finals MVP as he guides the Dallas Mavericks in their most successful postseason since the great Dirk Nowitizki led them to the mountaintop in 2011? Or will Jayson Tatum — playing in his third conference finals in his five-year career — earn it by leading his Boston Celtics to their first title since 2008?

It doesn’t take long for betting lines to shift in the Association. Let’s take a look at the Finals MVP odds for the top players in the Conference Finals as we approach the end of the NBA’s 75th season (with all odds via FOX Bet).

ODDS TO WIN 2022 NBA Finals MVP*

*odds as of 5/23/2022

As for how to bet the award, FOX Sports betting expert Jason McIntyre shares his insights below.

When it comes to the odds of winning the NBA title, the Warriors went into the conference finals nearly even with the Celtics. That has changed dramatically with how the Warriors have pushed the Mavericks to the brink.

Golden State is now the overwhelming favorite to win the Larry O’Brien trophy, but there isn’t much value left in that number. And, if you know me, I’m always looking ahead. This leads me to the NBA Finals MVP market.

There is only one player you can confidently bet to win the Finals MVP from Golden State — Stephen Curry (+110 at FOX Bet). Klay Thompson and Jordan Poole have been inconsistent the last two rounds. Curry has been their North Star in the playoffs, averaging 28 points per game against Denver (50/40/77 shooting splits), 26 points vs. Memphis (41/32/85) and 28 against Dallas through three games (48/47/85). Also, keep in mind that the only piece of NBA hardware he doesn’t have is a Finals MVP. This may sway voters if it’s close at the end.

The problem could come against Boston, which matches up very well with the Warriors. If you are looking for a long shot to win the award, there may be value in betting Marcus Smart (+3300 at FOX Bet) to win the Finals MVP because he’s such a defensive pest and has the frame and length to give Curry problems.

Boston will also throw Jaylen Brown and Derrick White at Curry, and the Celtics will probably switch everything on the perimeter. The last time we saw a great defensive player steal the NBA Finals MVP was Andre Iguodala against LeBron James in 2015 (I still maintain Curry should have won that Finals MVP, and his stats back me up).

Jayson Tatum (+450 at FOX Bet) will be the other heavy favorite if it is Celtics-Warriors in the NBA Finals. And if Andrew Wiggins thinks he has his hands full with Luka Doncic, wait until he goes up against Tatum, who is arguably the best 1-on-1 offensive player in the NBA. Wiggins has seen speed (Ja Morant) and skill (Luka Doncic), but Tatum will be a combination of them.

Having dispatched Kevin Durant and Giannis, I think Tatum will probably average 30 ppg in the series and be the favorite after Curry to capture the award.

So if you like the Warriors to win it all, Curry is your choice. But if you think the Celtics can pull a small upset, I’d look at Tatum or Smart to get the most bang for your buck.

So how will the race shape up for these stars? Who do you like for Finals MVP? As usual, check out FOX Bet to place your wagers.

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