NFL odds: Over/under win total best bets for every team in NFC North

Nothing says football is back like the official release of next season’s schedule! 

And now that we know the dates of all the NFL regular season matchups for 2022, FOX Bet has released its win totals for every team. Folks, not only do we have ourselves a complete schedule to get excited about, but at FOX Bet, you can now bet on the win totals, too.

Our expert betting analysts — Geoff Schwartz, Sam Panayotovich and Jason McIntyre — analyzed this year’s slate and weighed in on how gamblers should wager on the win totals for each team in every division!

Let’s look at the NFC North.

Last season, the Packers owned the division, making it to the divisional round game that they lost 13-10 to the Niners. Will Aaron Rodgers & Co. rack up enough wins next season to copy the regular-season success they had last year? If second-year quarterback Justin Fields and his young Bears squad have a say, they’d like to replace Green Bay as the new champs of the NFC North. Perhaps Detroit can eclipse its dismal win total next season and do better than 3-13-1 in 2022. Can the Vikings make the offseason adjustments necessary to exceed the 8.5 win total FOX Bet oddsmakers have set?

Here are our experts’ best win total bets, with all odds courtesy of FOX Bet.

6.5 wins for Chicago Bears at FOX Bet

Sammy’s Pick — Under: +100 (bet $20 to win $16.99)

Things could get real ugly for the Chicago Bears this season.

Justin Fields has all the tools to be a franchise quarterback, but the organization has done a horrendous job fixing the obvious needs around Fields to this point. The offensive line is a train wreck, and Darnell Mooney and Cole Kmet are the team’s best playmakers.

Mooney showed flashes with four 100-yard games last year, but two of those came with the now-departed Allen Robinson lining up on the other side of the offense. Chicago has high hopes for Mooney’s future, but I’m not sold on him as a surefire No. 1 receiver just yet.  

On defense, the Bears’ front seven will look drastically different. Long-stays Eddie Goldman, Akiem Hicks, Khalil Mack, Bilal Nichols are all gone, and there will be many new players with new responsibilities on that side of the ball. First-time head coach Matt Eberflus is going to have his hands full implementing a new scheme for a new team.

Chicago is simply a football team in transition and wins will be tough to come by, especially with Aaron Rodgers and Kirk Cousins still lingering in the NFC North. The roster is young, too. And while that should pay off in the future, we’re betting on this year, not a three-year plan.

The Baby Bears must prove they can crawl before they can walk.

11.5 wins for Green Bay Packers at FOX Bet

Geoff’s Pick — Over: +105 (bet $10 to win $20.50 total)

I’m surprised to see the odds shaded toward the under here. 

The Packers have won 13 games in each of the last three seasons, and I’m finding it difficult to make an argument they don’t get to 13 wins again. I imagine there are two assumptions at play here. The first is that the offense will struggle after the Packers traded star receiver Davante Adams to the Raiders this offseason. The other accounts for the natural regression that will come with an aging Aaron Rodgers. 

While the Packers’ offense will need to figure out its rhythm without Adams, judging from the small sample size of the seven games Adams has missed in a Packers uniform, that might be easier than we thought. 

Without Adams in the lineup, Green Bay is 7-0 and there’s no offensive drop-off when he doesn’t suit up. This can be explained by the quarterback-friendly offensive structure that will allow this offense and Rodgers to still function well without an elite receiving option. The team’s offensive line will also be healthier next season, and I expect the run game to be outstanding.

The Packers continue to invest in their defense. They spent two first-round picks on defenders from Georgia as they attempt to help their 22nd-ranked defense from last year. The Packers’ pass defense started fast last season, then struggled with injury and depth before playing better near the end of the season. For them to win over 11.5 games, the defense only needs to be OK.

In the division, the Vikings have a new coach and a roster that’s evolving. The Bears are average at the best, and while I like the roster-building of the Lions, they still have Jared Goff at quarterback. 

The Packers will get at least five wins in their division alone which will help get them over 11.5 wins.

8.5 wins for Minnesota Vikings at FOX Bet

Jason’s Pick — Over: -133 (bet $10 to win $17.52)

I want to like the Minnesota Vikings, but I have a fundamental question now that the offseason is nearly complete. Did they get better? Four picks in the Top 66 netted two defensive backs, a position that notoriously has one of the steepest learning curves of any rookie, and a guard and an LB — neither of which is expected to start. 

The glass-half-empty guy in me says, “An 8-9 team added one new starter in free agency? Meh.” The glass-half-full guy in me says, “Continuity!” The best case for a surge is the Golden State Warriors theory — the pieces have been in place, but coach Mike Zimmer has taken this team as far as possible (two NFC North titles and three playoff appearances in eight years). Now, new blood is needed for a culture change. 

Enter Sean McVay’s disciple Kevin O’Connell. He’s expected to give the offense a jolt, and use Justin Jefferson and Dalvin Cook to take them from being plodding and safe to aerial and aggressive. 

The win total opened at 9 and was bet down to 8.5, but there’s juice if you want the over. It’s a better bet to take them to win the NFC North at +275. 

We know the Bears and Lions won’t be there, and now you’re just betting on the Packers back-sliding enough — they opened 11 and have been bet down to 10.5 — for the Vikings to steal it. 

Here are the QBs Minnesota will face in December and January — Zach Wilson, Jared Goff, Matt Ryan, Daniel Jones, Aaron Rodgers and Justin Fields. 

That’s very favorable to either fend off the Packers or catch them.

6.5 wins for Detroit Lions at FOX Bet

Geoff’s Pick — Under: -120 (bet $10 to win $18.33)

I love the energy coming from Dan Campbell’s squad. They are a physical group, and they’re building through the trenches. When healthy, the Lions have a surprisingly good offensive line for their win-loss record. With the addition of Aidan Hutchinson — the second pick in the NFL Draft — the Lions now have an anchor on their defensive line. They also added pieces via free agency to bolster that defensive unit as they must be better stopping the pass this season. 

But the reason I must take the under for the Lions is because of their quarterback. Jared Goff is just not good, and that’s OK to admit. When he’s not being coached by Sean McVay, Goff’s record is 3-17-1. While I understand QB wins are not a stat, it’s pretty striking to know that he won 42 games and had a Super Bowl appearance under McVay but the offense he led last season finished 29th in DVOA. 

The Lions did add wide receivers DJ Chark in free agency and Jameson Williams in the draft to help this meager passing attack. However, it does feel like both of those players are additions that the franchise made as they eye a future with a new quarterback in 2023.

I just can’t wager on the Lions over with Goff at quarterback. 

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