Can Baker Mayfield win Carolina QB competition vs. Sam Darnold?

By Bucky Brooks
FOX Sports NFL Analyst

EDITOR’S NOTE: In “Bucky’s Blueprint,” Bucky Brooks, a former NFL player, scout and executive, pulls back the curtain on front offices around the league to reveal how teams assess players and build rosters and franchises.

It is rare for NFL teams to stage a real quarterback competition without the cards stacked in one participant’s favor. 

Despite coaches and executives repeatedly touting the importance of “earning” the job through performance and production, there are few instances in which the team does not have a clear-cut favorite in the race. 

In Carolina, the upcoming competition between Baker Mayfield, acquired Wednesday from Cleveland for a 2024 conditional draft pick, and incumbent Sam Darnold is a fascinating battle between a pair of former first-round picks with vastly different playing styles and personalities. 

From their size to their arm talent and athleticism to their on-field demeanors, the top two quarterbacks from the 2018 draft class are as different as cats and dogs. Given Carolina’s desperation to find a long-term answer at the position, coach Matt Rhule and general manager Scott Fitterer will now pivot the franchise behind the quarterback who gives the team the best chance to be competitive in year three of Rhule’s rebuilding project. 

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After a little film study on each player and a review of my old scouting reports, here are my thoughts on the Panthers’ impending quarterback competition. 

The book on Baker Mayfield

The former No. 1 overall pick is a gritty competitor with an underdog mentality. As a two-time walk-on who eventually developed into a Heisman Trophy winner, the fifth-year pro does not wilt in a competitive environment. Mayfield knocked off a handful of five-star quarterbacks along the way, and those experiences should give him plenty of confidence heading into his training camp battle against Darnold. 

As a player, Mayfield is a quick-rhythm gunslinger with enough arm talent to make all of the requisite throws in an NFL offense. He can carve up opponents with pinpoint throws between the numbers and down the seams at intermediate and deep range. Mayfield works the middle of the field like an off-speed pitcher and paints the corners with sliders and breaking balls. 

The Oklahoma product is not afraid to challenge defenders on the perimeter, particularly on 50/50 balls thrown along the boundary. Mayfield trusts his wideouts to come down with jump balls, and he has been rewarded for his faith with some spectacular plays on the perimeter. 

From a schematic standpoint, Mayfield has been at his best executing play-action passes from run-heavy sets. The combination of run-action fakes and pocket movement has enabled the 6-foot-1 quarterback to find throwing lanes amongst the trees at the line of scrimmage. In addition, the utilization of play-action passes has enabled Mayfield to exploit voids over the middle of the field to produce big plays in the passing game. 

When Mayfield sticks to the script and avoids playing “hero ball” from the pocket, he is an efficient and effective starting quarterback with the capacity to win games in a managerial role. 

Although being cast as a “game manager” might make the veteran cringe, it is hard to consider him as anything other than that based on his production in Cleveland and his lack of elite physical traits. 

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Mayfield’s career completion percentage (61.6%), pass yards per game (235.4) and passer rating (87.8) rank among the bottom third of qualified quarterbacks since 2018. In addition, he is tied with Jameis Winston for the most interceptions (56) and multiple interception games (14) during that time period. 

Mayfield’s turnover woes are primarily due to his reluctance to dial back his gunslinger approach despite lacking the elite arm talent and athleticism to push the envelope as a playmaker. 

Without the superpowers needed to overcome his size deficiency, Mayfield must be committed to playing disciplined football from the pocket. If he prioritizes decision-making and ball security as a quarterback, he is more than capable of winning games as a starter in this league. 

The book on Sam Darnold

The first four years of Darnold’s career have not been pretty to watch. Despite flashing immense talent and potential, he has not played up to expectations as the former No. 3 overall pick in the draft. The lowlight reels featuring poor throws and suspect decisions have overshadowed the “oooh-aaah” moments that he has produced on occasion with his spectacular throws and impromptu runs on the perimeter. 

Overall, his lack of consistency has prevented the Jets, who drafted Darnold and then traded him to Carolina in 2021, and the Panthers from making a long-term commitment to the fifth-year pro. 

That said, there are certain things to like about Darnold’s game. Measuring 6-3, 221 pounds and featuring A-plus arm strength and above-average athleticism, Darnold is the prototype at the position. He teases and tantalizes scouts with his natural talents, and evaluators have a tough time dismissing his work at USC. 

As an unheralded recruit, Darnold surprisingly snatched a starting job from a five-star recruit and led the Trojans to a Rose Bowl victory. Although his game regressed a bit as a sophomore, the flashes of brilliance led plenty of scouts to tout Darnold as a future all-star at the position. 

While that type of production has not materialized, the Panthers (and Jets) have witnessed some high moments from Darnold. He has flashed exceptional talent as a passer with some spectacular tosses from the pocket and on the move, while also displaying credible running skills on impromptu scrambles and designed quarterback runs. 

With the pro game increasingly incorporating collegiate-like concepts, Darnold’s combination of arm talent and athleticism is certainly intriguing. 

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Despite the flashes, it is hard to ignore the mistakes, turnovers and bonehead plays that repeatedly show up on Darnold’s film. His turnover woes and accuracy issues make it hard for an offense to play winning football with him at the helm. 

Sure, he has not been surrounded by a stellar supporting cast and questions persist about the coaching that he has received throughout his career, but great players overcome their surroundings, and he has simply failed to do so to this point of his career. 

In studying the 2021 season, Darnold certainly took the Panthers’ offense on a roller-coaster ride. After getting off to a fast start with a league-leading five rushing touchdowns through three games, the veteran was unable to sustain his playmaking prowess as the team unraveled down the stretch. 

The combination of poor decisions and spotty play from Darnold prompted the team to bring back Cam Newton and then seek an upgrade at the position in the draft, trading up to select Ole Miss QB Matt Corral in the third round. 

Given Darnold’s subpar completion percentage (59.8%), touchdown-to-interception ratio (54:52) and career passer rating (76.9), the veteran has certainly been a disappointment at the position. He flat-out needs to perform better to be considered a quality starter in this league. 

Who should start Week 1? 

Interestingly, the Panthers host the Browns in Week 1, which would create all sorts of drama if Mayfield were the starter. But with only six weeks of practice and three preseason games to determine the winner of this QB competition, the odds are currently in the incumbent’s favor due to his familiarity with his teammates and system. 

Although Ben McAdoo is in his first year as the Panthers’ offensive coordinator, Darnold has a significant head start on Mayfield, with a full offseason to learn the system in the classroom while applying those lessons in OTAs and mini-camp practices. The offseason experience should enable Darnold to play faster due to his understanding of the concepts and philosophy. 

That said, Mayfield’s success as a pro could enable him to close the gap quickly in training camp. He has won in this league — including an 11-5 record in 2020, when the Browns went to the playoffs for the first time since 2002 — and that confidence could help him attract some support from his new teammates, particularly if he dazzles in practice and preseason games.  

Given the timeline to win the job in the preseason, I would expect Darnold to start the regular season as the Panthers’ QB1, with Rhule keeping him on a short leash. If the incumbent slips up or if the Panthers get off to a slow start, Mayfield could get the nod before the NFL season reaches the quarter-pole. 

Bucky Brooks is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports and regularly appears on “Speak For Yourself.” He has been in or around the league since 1994, playing for or working with, among others, Marv Levy, Tom Coughlin, Mike Holmgren and Ron Wolf. Brooks also breaks down the game for NFL Network and is a cohost of the “Moving the Sticks” podcast.