MLB odds: Surprising team back on bettors’ radar

Can an MLB team with the longest active postseason drought finally reach the playoffs this season? A growing contingent of bettors hopes so.

Expectations were high for the Seattle Mariners during spring training as they were a popular team with bettors, but hopes cooled as the M’s were 17-25 on May 22 (fourth place in the American League West Division, a half-game out of last place).

Yet the Mariners never gave up the ship, and they eventually started winning, which renewed their backers’ hope.

Let’s dive into everything you need to know about Seattle and the team’s odds for the MLB season via FOX Bet.

Seattle recently surged back above .500, thanks to an eight-game winning streak and then taking six consecutive series. The M’s are 45-42 after winning 16 of their past 19 games. 

Though the Mariners are a distant 12 games behind the AL West-leading Houston Astros, they are in the playoff mix. Seattle is tied with the Toronto Blue Jays for the expanded third AL wild-card spot. This, despite the Mariners being 11th in the AL in team batting average (.234) and tied for 10th in saves (19).

How are the Mariners doing it? It all starts with defense (Seattle leads the majors in fielding percentage, .990, along with the San Diego Padres) and pitching (second in the AL in quality starts with 42 and fourth in team earned-run average, 3.58).

MARINERS ODDS at FOX Bet *

Win American League West Division: +6600 (bet $10 to win $670 total)

Win American League pennant: +3500 (bet $10 to win $360 total)

Win World Series: +8500 (bet $10 to win $860 total)

Julio Rodriguez to win AL Rookie of the Year: -303 (bet $10 to win $13.30 total)

Yes, you read the above correctly — the Mariners have longer odds to win their division than to represent the American League in the 2022 World Series.

“Funny how they have lower odds to win the American League over the division with the Astros currently at -5000 to win the AL West,” FOX Bet associate trader Steven Hemke explained.

BetMGM data analyst John Ewing said the Mariners opened at +4000 to win the World Series. They were at +125000 in late June — their longest odds of the season — but moved to +10000 entering play Sunday, Ewing said.

Why the skepticism from oddsmakers? 

Well, the Mariners have the longest active postseason drought among North America’s “Big Four” sports, having last reached the playoffs in 2001. 

Yet there was optimism heading into the season after the Mariners surprised many by finishing second in the AL West last season (90-72), their first winning season since 2018.

“Last year, Seattle was more about ‘fun differential’ than ‘run differential,’ outperforming the record they should have had,” FOX Sports MLB betting analyst Edward Egros said. “Now, their pitching and defense have given them a more respectable ballclub.  

“I’m as curious about what the Mariners will do at the trade deadline as any team in baseball. If they make the right moves, they should be a value play at their current odds.”

Speaking of right moves, the Mariners have made a couple this season. Seattle backers are banking on two new Mariners, pitcher Robbie Ray and center fielder Julio Rodriguez, to help put an end to the playoff drought.

Ray (7-6, 3.51 ERA, 10 quality starts) signed as a free agent during the offseason after winning the 2021 AL Cy Young with the Blue Jays.

Rodriguez, who signed by Seattle as an international free agent in 2017 when he was 16, is hitting .274 with 15 home runs, 44 RBIs and 21 stolen bases and leads all AL center fielders in putouts with 246. He was the AL Rookie of the Month for May and June and was named an All-Star reserve on Sunday.

But, Carlos Santana could be the key. The M’s are 11-1 since getting Santana in a trade from the Kansas City Royals on June 27.

“With the expanded playoffs this year adding the one wild-card spot, the Mariners are primed to make their first postseason in years,” Hemke said. “I think Boston gets in, then Toronto, and either Tampa Bay or Seattle.  Whichever team makes the biggest deadline deals may get that final spot.  

“Do the Mariners stay put or go for it? With the race for that final spot coming down to the last few days, I give the Mariners a 40% chance to make the playoffs.”

Do you like the Mariners’ chances of ending their lengthy postseason drought? Either way, head over to FOX Bet for all your MLB wagers.

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