Yankees, Orioles, Paul Goldschmidt, Manny Machado highlight MLB first-half surprises

By Pedro Moura
FOX Sports MLB Writer

Every MLB team is more than halfway through its season. The All-Star Game is days away. As most of the sport prepares to take a brief break, it’s a fine time to review the most unexpected elements of the first half of play. 

Here are 10 of the biggest surprises in baseball so far in 2022.

1. Two 30-something stars are having the best offensive seasons of their careers for the same team.

We speak, of course, of Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, who are collectively carrying the Cardinals, despite some significant gaps in their team’s pitching staff. It’s not surprising in itself that Goldschmidt and Arenado have been great; they each entered this year as potential Hall of Famers.

But it’s very surprising how well they have hit, especially given the sport’s weaker offensive environment. By wRC+, which accounts for that, Goldschmidt has hit 25% better than ever before, and Arenado has been 15% better. Put another way, Arenado has already surpassed the value, by WAR, that he added last season, and Goldschmidt is on track to do so in a few weeks.

2. The Yankees.

I had the Yankees out of the playoffs in my preseason predictions. That’s already essentially guaranteed to be incorrect. Many others were higher on them, but I’m not aware of anyone who expected them to be this great. 

Aaron Judge has delivered despite the pressure, the rotation has been outrageously consistent, and the bullpen has been baseball’s best. The Yankees have also landed in some lucky spots, like plucking resurgent veteran Matt Carpenter away from the Rangers, who could’ve really used him.

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3. The AL Central has played out like few expected.

Not only have the White Sox disappointed, but also the Twins and Guardians have both sizably exceeded expectations through the first half. The result is the only American League division race that will retain any suspense for the final two months of 2022. It’s close enough between the three that it’s difficult to handicap. 

Should you believe in this year’s results or the long-term track records? The former would lead you to the Twins, the latter the White Sox. And Cleveland is in there at .500, mucking up things.

4. Manny Machado can lead an offense.

We’ve known Machado can hit and field with the best of them. But between Baltimore, Los Angeles and San Diego, he never exactly led a contender, as he has done through these three months with the Padres. And he should not have to for much longer, as Fernando Tatis Jr. is expected back around month’s end. 

While Tatis was out, Machado put up career-best numbers when his team sorely needed them.

5. Juan Soto has set expectations so high that a season 45% better than average is widely considered a disappointment.

That’s how good Soto is. As of Tuesday, he had a 145 wRC+ in 367 plate appearances for the Nationals, exactly the same statistics as those of division rival Pete Alonso of the Mets. In the popular imagination, Alonso is carrying his club, and Soto is struggling. He sort of is. But he is so good and has been unlucky enough on balls in play that there’s no cause for concern.

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6. A couple of the most highly touted rookies have come up empty.

By FanGraphs’ measurement, the worst position player in the sport entering play Tuesday was Tigers first baseman Spencer Torkelson. That’s a surprise. Torkelson, 22 through next month, previously hit at every level he’d ever played. He dominated college and the lower levels of the minor leagues and more than held his own at Triple-A. 

But in the big leagues, he has been incompetent, unable to clear .300 with his on-base or slugging percentage.

Few in the game expect that to continue; Torkelson just played his 200th professional game. But the slow start is alarming, as it is with Mariners outfielder Jarred Kelenic, who struggled so much in the majors that he has been a minor-leaguer for months now. Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. fit into this category for the first five weeks of his career, but he has been great the past two months.

7. The Orioles have been OK!

The last time the Orioles were even remotely relevant was two presidential administrations ago. Chris Davis was still good then. Ubaldo Jiménez and Yovani Gallardo were still in the league. 

So Baltimore’s recent winning streak comes very much as a surprise. No one expects this team to make the playoffs out of baseball’s toughest division, but this season shows that there is finally homegrown talent assembled here. That wasn’t clear for quite some time.

8. Two of the most impressive rookies are Braves, and neither was a longtime top prospect.

Right-hander Spencer Strider, 23, and outfielder Michael Harris, 21, are two of the main reasons Atlanta has come back from a slow start to 2022. To be clear, Harris became a real prospect about a year ago, but neither player made a top-prospect list until this year. 

Strider, a 2020 draft pick, has been racking up absurd strikeout totals. Harris is demonstrating plenty of speed and power.

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9. The Angels’ offense is insufficient.

To many in the sport, it’s no surprise that the Angels are again trending to miss the playoffs. This team has again and again been built with too much short-term vision and too little long-term development.

The surprising part about 2022 is that the Angels’ offense is the culprit, not their pitching staff. By wRC+, the offense ranks 21st. By most measurements, the pitching staff ranks almost exactly average: 14th in WAR, 15th in ERA, 15th in FIP.

If you knew in March that the Angels’ pitching would be average, Mike Trout would be slugging .600, and Shohei Ohtani would be doing wonderfully once again, you would have projected this team to at least be in contention. Instead, the Angels are double-digit games under .500 and fully out of the AL West race. Blame lack of offensive depth and another Anthony Rendon injury.

10. The Astros’ offense isn’t missing Carlos Correa whatsoever.

No, really. Rookie shortstop Jeremy Peña has been nearly as good, Yordan Álvarez has been the best hitter in baseball, Jose Altuve has been a star again, Michael Brantley has been who he always is, and Kyle Tucker has kept his 2021 momentum going. It hasn’t mattered that age has appeared to finally catch up to 38-year-old Yuli Gurriel. 

Houston is on pace to soar past 100 wins.

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Pedro Moura is the national baseball writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the Dodgers for three seasons for The Athletic and, before that, the Angels and Dodgers for five seasons for the Orange County Register and L.A. Times. More previously, he covered his alma mater, USC, for ESPNLosAngeles.com. The son of Brazilian immigrants, he grew up in the Southern California suburbs. His first book, “How to Beat a Broken Game,” came out this spring. Follow him on Twitter @pedromoura.