College football odds: ACC betting preview and best bets

By Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports NFL Analyst

Are you ready for some college football? Well, you should be because kickoff is right around the corner! 

There will be so much football to watch from Thursday to Monday every week, which means there are a lot of teams in college football to study up on from a gambling perspective. And because I’m a nice guy — as former linemen tend to be — I’m going to help you make some of those tough decisions about how to wager your money. 

Bettors are already looking ahead to which teams they want to lay money on, so I wanted to do a betting preview for every Power 5 conference. I’ll break down my best bets for which team I think will win the conference, my potential dark horse pick and then two of my favorite over/under win total bets. 

It’s a lot to digest, but I got you covered. Let’s dive into it my best bets for the ACC (with all odds via FOX Bet).

CONFERENCE BEST BET

Clemson: -133 at FOX Bet (bet $10 to win $17.52 total) to win ACC

As we continue this series, my picks for conference winners will seem pretty predictable. The most talented teams usually take the conference every year, so those are the teams I’m picking to win — the most stacked, most talented squads. Notice I said usually and not always. The way the ACC unfolded last season is one reason I have to choose my words carefully. 

Let’s look at Clemson. They had an insanely talented roster last season and even won 10 games.  But, those 10 wins still fell short of the lofty expectations, and Pittsburgh won the ACC. Pittsburgh! That won’t happen again this season.

The reason behind that Panther surprise was that the Tigers had a dreadful offense last season. They finished 71st in the country in efficiency and 114th in explosive play rate. Quarterback DJ Uiagalelei, a top recruit, struggled during his first season as the Clemson starter. He only completed 55% of his passes with nine touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Clemson has a new offensive coordinator, and he will need to light a fire into this offense. The talent at skill positions is there and a slight improvement in this offense will have the unit good enough to win the conference.  

Clemson’s defense will play a huge part in the Tigers claiming the ACC crown this season. While they lost long time DC Brent Venables to Oklahoma, this unit returns monsters at all three levels. Clemson did lose three secondary pieces, but again, the Tigers replace those guys with blue-chip recruits.

I’m picking Clemson for these reasons, but I’m also mindful of the talent around the conference. If Clemson’s offense improves from last season, is there a team that could take the Atlantic Division title or beat the Tigers in the ACC Championship game? Wake Forest has defensive concerns, Florida State has concerns all the way around and NC State is always just good enough but not great. Clemson will most likely face Miami in the ACC Championship game, and the Hurricanes are still at least a year away when it comes to having the kind of talent needed to compete against Clemson.

Take the Tigers.

Long shot — Miami: +600 at FOX Bet (bet $10 to win $70 total) to win ACC

Big surprise, huh? The next-best odds to win the conference. I wanted to make a case for Wake Forest, but yeah, that’s not happening. 

North Carolina and Pittsburgh both lost starting quarterbacks. So when it comes to long shot teams that stand a chance to take the ACC, is it Virginia Tech? NC State? Who has a real chance at being the surprise team? 

Well, Miami has the best quarterback in the conference and a supreme coaching staff. I’m just not sure that the Hurricanes have enough talent at the moment to win the conference, but they do have the best chance of any squad not named Clemson. 

BEST OVER/ UNDER WIN TOTAL BETS

Wake Forest — Over 8.5 wins: +100 at FOX Bet (bet $10 to win $20 total)

Coach Dave Clawson’s Demon Deacons had been slowly building toward the 11-win season that we saw them have in 2021. Clawson won three games in each of his first two seasons but then jumped to seven wins in his third season. Wake won eight games in two of the next three seasons before winning only four during the COVID-19 year. I’ve said it before, and I’m reminding you again; my general rule is to always throw out the COVID-19 year for any discussions about the sport. 

The Deacons were able to win 11 games last season because of their offense, which finished fifth in points per scoring opportunity. They averaged 41 points per game using their slow-mesh style which is extremely frustrating for teams to defend. Wake returns its quarterback, four offensive linemen and a bunch of skill position players. 

The Deacons’ defense was not good last season, but they won in spite of that. Purdue finished 25th on defense last season, but a change at coordinator — the addition of Purdue’s former defensive play caller — should help. Wake’s schedule features VMI, Vandy and Liberty, and all three of those games should be wins. 

Wake Forest will be favored in home games against Duke, Syracuse, North Carolina, Army and Boston College. The Demon Deacons will win at least nine games.

Pittsburgh — Over 7.5 wins: -167 at FOX Bet (bet $10 to win $15.99 total)

This number surprised me. It feels like an overreaction to some roster movement. 

Yes, Kenny Pickett is gone, but he’s being replaced by USC transfer Kedon Slovis. In a functional offense with a strong offensive line, Slovis will be fine. Pittsburgh returns its entire offensive line, and while they do lose Jordan Addison, I don’t think losing one playmaker at receiver will make or break the season. 

The Panthers return six All-ACC defensive starters from a unit that finished seventh in sack rate and 29th overall. 

Pitt has enough talent and a favorable enough schedule to win eight games. 

Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

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