NFL odds: Hall of Fame Game best bet, profitable preseason trends

By Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports NFL Analyst

I am beyond thrilled to write this sentence: The NFL is back, with preseason starting on Thursday with the Hall of Fame game!

The Jacksonville Jaguars and Las Vegas Raiders square off in Canton, Ohio to kick off the 2022 season. And if a game is played, money is to be made, even if it’s the preseason. 

Let’s talk about a couple of ways to wager on the Hall of Fame Game and preseason in general.

In the past, there have been two ways to make money on the NFL preseason: wagering on coaches or wagering on unders. 

The first is super simple. There are several coaches with outstanding records covering the spread in the preseason. John Harbaugh has covered 71.5% of the time, followed by Frank Reich (70%), Sean McDermott (66.6%) and Pete Carroll (64.2%). What do three of these four coaches have in common? They are not offensive-minded coaches. 

Offensive coaches have a plan of attack for the game and do not care about winning. They are doing what is best to prepare the offense for the season. On the other hand, defensive coaches are wired to play defense for the entire 60 minutes. They try to stifle the opponent from the start, and their teams play these games more intensely. The Ravens are a combination of both. They play excellent defense but also feature a tough offense to prepare for, so they just run over everyone. This is why they have won 20 straight preseason games and are 17-2-1 against the spread in that span. Overall, I like to auto-bet these aforementioned coaches in the preseason, so definitely file those names away.

We have two coaches with boring preseason cover records in Thursday’s matchup. Jaguars coach Doug Pederson is 8-8 ATS in the preseason, while Raiders head coach Josh McDaniels is 3-5 in his eight preseason games as the Broncos coach. No edge there, so let’s move on to my next angle that does come into play for the Hall of Fame Game.

The second way to make money before the season starts is on the under. With every team’s major players unlikely to see more than a few snaps, the under has hit in seven of the last nine Hall of Fame Games. 

Unsurprisingly, the Jaguars have already announced their top two quarterbacks aren’t playing. I expect the Raiders to do the same. Scoring will be tough if both starting quarterbacks and backups aren’t playing. How many third-string quarterbacks move the ball at will in a preseason game? None.  

So my best bet for Thursday night, especially with Trevor Lawrence out, is the under.

PICK: Under 30.5 points scored by both teams combined at FOX Bet (bet $10 to win $19.09 total)

Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

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