NFL odds: Will refs’ point of emphasis change have a betting impact?

By Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports NFL Analyst

As teams started their preseason games, the NFL released their points of emphasis for this season: illegal contact and clarification about roughing the passer. 

One of these can really impact games from a betting perspective, so let’s talk about it.

It’s fun to complain about the officiating on social media, especially when our favorite team is on the short end of the stick. Occasionally, I participate in these frustration-releasing rituals when a big play is on the line. 

However, I do believe officials get too much grief. Slow motion replay from the dozens of cameras provided each telecast gives fans the impression that officiating is easy, hurting the referees’ reputation. But football is a fast game, and making real-time calls on the field is much harder than critiquing from the couch as you eat popcorn and sip a beer.

This is the main reason why I do not believe NFL officials should be given points of emphasis every preseason. I understand that the league wants to improve the officials’ success rate and make the game smoother, but these points do not make the game better. The job is tough enough, and officials should flag what they see on the field, not narrowly focus on a couple of rules to emphasize. Year after year, we have seen that this process is not efficient.  

The NFL usually starts the season calling an egregious number of emphasized penalties. For example, in 2014, illegal hands to the face flags increased by 163% in the early weeks, only to eventually fall back to normal levels in the latter half of the season. It’s not like the players just stopped all the incidental contact to the face because of these flags. How do I know? Because I was still in the league. The NFL just decided to stop calling it. How is that good for the game? 

This is why I roll my eyes when I see news that the league has instructed officials to emphasize illegal contact penalties early in the 2022 season. The NFL notes that between 2012 and 2020, including playoffs, there were an average of 97 penalties per season for illegal contact, dropping to 37 last season. Digging a tad deeper, we saw 38 illegal contact penalties in 2019 (regular season only) and 44 in 2018. So that number has been creeping down the last couple of seasons.

There’s a good explanation for this decrease. Offenses using motion and spread-out formations have increased, and defenses have responded by keeping everything in front of them. As a result, the defenders are less likely to start each snap in the face of an eligible receiver, thereby reducing the number of these penalties per season. 

So what does this all mean from a gambling perspective? Simple. If NFL officials follow through with their point of emphasis, scoring will increase during the high enforcement period. 

While these are only five-yard penalties, they are automatic first downs — a killer for defenses. One or two of these per game could result in an extra field goal or touchdown. 

Even though I am against these points of emphasis rules, be on the lookout for some fishy overs early in the season while the refs are on quota patrol. Hopefully, you can use the NFL’s points to emphasize your wallets.

Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

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