Analysis: American recession fears collide with reality

The And in some ways that makes sense: Since 1948, every period of back-to-back quarters of negative growth coincided with a recession.But the recession-is-already-here argument has been severely undermined since that GDP report came out. A series of events in the past 10 days suggest those recession calls are, at a minimum, premature.Yes, the Of course, none of this means the economy is healthy. It isn’t. Inflation remains way too high. And none of this means the economy is out of the woods. It isn’t. A recession remains a real risk, especially next year and in 2024 as the economy absorbs the full impact of the Federal Reserve’s The Bureau of Labor Statistics said last week that The yield curve — specifically, the gap between 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields — remains inverted. And in the past, this has been an eerily accurate predictor of recessions. It has preceded every recession since 1955.In all, recent economic data suggests that the potential recession may have been delayed, not canceled altogether.While the risk of a recession over the next six to nine months appears to have gone down, Zandi said, the risk of one in the next 12 to 18 months has gone up.”Recession odds are still uncomfortably high,” he said.