Analysis: ‘New normal’ across the Taiwan Strait as China threat looms ever closer

Beijing has ramped up military maneuvers in the 110-mile (180-kilometer) wide stretch of water that separates US Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Daniel Kritenbrink on Thursday called the PLA’s actions since Pelosi’s visit to the island “provocative, destabilizing and unprecedented.”He noted the PLA’s “disregard” for the A report by the China Power Project made a similar assertion, noting the ambiguity of whether something is an exercise or the beginning of an attack is intentional, as outlined in “Science of Military Strategy,” a textbook published by China’s National Defense University. The textbook, which highlights PLA strategy, states exercises can be directed at adversaries with the goal of “making them uncertain about our intentions and making it difficult to determine whether we are conducting routine training, maintaining close diplomatic relations, or taking the opportunity to move into actual combat operations,'” the China Power Project report quotes the textbook as saying.Meanwhile, the restraint shown by leaders in Taipei and Washington as far as a military response to the recent Chinese exercises may embolden the PLA even more, the analysts say.”Beijing will no longer exercise restraint in keeping its own operations mainly west of the Taiwan Strait centerline and will likely engage in operations closer to Taiwan,” wrote Bonny Lin, director of the China Power Project, and Joel Wuthnow, a senior research fellow in the Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs at the US National Defense University, this week in the online journal War on the Rocks.’);$vidEndSlate.removeClass(‘video__end-slate–inactive’).addClass(‘video__end-slate–active’);}};CNN.autoPlayVideoExist = (CNN.autoPlayVideoExist === true) ? true : false;var configObj = {thumb: ‘none’,video: ‘world/2022/08/12/pelosi-taiwan-visit-china-reactions-pkg-wang-ovn-intl-ldn-vpx.cnn’,width: ‘100%’,height: ‘100%’,section: ‘international’,profile: ‘expansion’,network: ‘cnn’,markupId: ‘body-text_34’,theoplayer: {allowNativeFullscreen: true},adsection: ‘const-article-inpage’,frameWidth: ‘100%’,frameHeight: ‘100%’,posterImageOverride: {“mini”:{“width”:220,”type”:”jpg”,”uri”:”//cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/220812045042-split-xi-pelosi-3-small-169.jpeg”,”height”:124},”xsmall”:{“width”:307,”type”:”jpg”,”uri”:”//cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/220812045042-split-xi-pelosi-3-medium-plus-169.jpeg”,”height”:173},”small”:{“width”:460,”type”:”jpg”,”uri”:”//cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/220812045042-split-xi-pelosi-3-large-169.jpeg”,”height”:259},”medium”:{“width”:780,”type”:”jpg”,”uri”:”//cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/220812045042-split-xi-pelosi-3-exlarge-169.jpeg”,”height”:438},”large”:{“width”:1100,”type”:”jpg”,”uri”:”//cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/220812045042-split-xi-pelosi-3-super-169.jpeg”,”height”:619},”full16x9″:{“width”:1600,”type”:”jpg”,”uri”:”//cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/220812045042-split-xi-pelosi-3-full-169.jpeg”,”height”:900},”mini1x1″:{“width”:120,”type”:”jpg”,”uri”:”//cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/220812045042-split-xi-pelosi-3-small-11.jpeg”,”height”:120}}},autoStartVideo = false,isVideoReplayClicked = false,callbackObj,containerEl,currentVideoCollection = [],currentVideoCollectionId = ”,isLivePlayer = false,mediaMetadataCallbacks,mobilePinnedView = null,moveToNextTimeout,mutePlayerEnabled = false,nextVideoId = ”,nextVideoUrl = ”,turnOnFlashMessaging = false,videoPinner,videoEndSlateImpl;if (CNN.autoPlayVideoExist === false) {autoStartVideo = false;autoStartVideo = typeof CNN.isLoggedInVideoCheck === ‘function’ ? 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attack.But US leaders say they recognize the “new normal” Beijing wants to impose must be met with an American response — and soon.US forces will use one of their normal tactics, practicing freedom of navigation, Kurt Campbell, US President Joe Biden’s coordinator for the Indo-Pacific, told reporters at the White House on August 12.”We’ll continue to fly, sail, and operate where international law allows, consistent with our longstanding commitment to freedom of navigation, and that includes conducting standard air and maritime transits through the Taiwan Strait in the next few weeks,” Campbell said at a news conference.Chinese Ambassador to Washington Qin Gang said Tuesday that the US transits only intensify tensions.”I do call on American colleagues to exercise restraint, not to do anything to escalate the tension,” Qin told reporters in Washington. “if there’s any move damaging China’s territorial integrity and sovereignty, China will respond.”South China Sea comparisonThe commander of the Japan-based US Navy 7th Fleet, Vice Adm. Karl Thomas, said Tuesday it is Washington that cannot let things stand as they are, likening the current situation to what has transpired in the South China Sea.China claims almost all of that body of water as its territory, where it has built military fortifications on manmade islands despite a United Nations tribunal ruling it was not entitled to do so and Beijing’s pledge not to militarize them.”That should make the world wake up and recognize that people may say one thing, but if you aren’t careful, a few years later things will be very different,” Thomas said at a meeting with reporters in Singapore.Beijing’s South China Sea position is entrenched for now, but Thomas said the US must challenge it over Taiwan.”I know that the gorilla in the room is launching missiles over Taiwan,” Thomas said.”If we just allow that to happen, and we don’t contest that, that’ll become the next norm. And that’s that’s not acceptable.”