Justin Verlander to injured list: What it means for Astros, AL Cy Young race

By Jake Mintz
FOX Sports MLB Writer

For a half-decade, Justin Verlander has waged a successful and admirable battle against the inevitability of time. Whereas most big-league hurlers see their effectiveness slide as they age into their mid-to-late 30s, Verlander has remained one of the game’s most dominant pitchers, even at age 39.

His resurgence this year after undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2020 at age 37 — an unprecedented age for a pitcher to have his elbow reconstructed — has been downright remarkable. Through 24 starts in 2022, Verlander has posted a league-leading 1.84 ERA with 154 strikeouts in 152 innings. The American League Cy Young award, it seemed, was all but his.

But time comes for us all, even the eternal Justin Verlander. And maybe, just maybe, his age is starting to show.

On Tuesday, the Houston Astros placed the 39-year-old righty on the 15-day injured list due to a right calf issue, which came as little surprise considering that Verlander was pulled after just three innings Sunday against the Orioles. Later that night, the team announced that his calf was the cause of his early departure, but it did not officially place him on the injured list until two days later.

Verlander’s trip to the IL raises a number of questions — for him, for the team and for the AL Cy Young race. How long will he be sidelined, and how severe is this injury? What does his absence mean for a juggernaut Astros team reliant on his magnificence every fifth day? And could a month on the shelf reopen a Cy Young race that appeared done and dusted just a few days ago?

According to the club, via Houston Chronicle reporter Chandler Rome, an MRI on Verlander’s leg revealed “fascial disruption but no muscle fiber disruption.” Per team GM James Click, that’s a key distinction, as damage to the muscle fibers in Verlander’s calf would have required even more recovery time and the team’s ace would have almost certainly missed some of the postseason.

Verlander appeared optimistic Tuesday in his Zoom call with reporters, despite sharing that he felt a pop in his calf during that Sunday start.

“It is an injury,” he said. “It’s not nothing. I went on the IL, so it is disappointing, but on the spectrum of calf injuries go, this is as good of news as I could have gotten.”

The team avoided providing a specific timeline for Verlander’s return, but Click noted that “the hope and expectation is that this should be relatively short-term.” There will most likely be some sort of update later this week, once Verlander is reevaluated after giving his calf some time to heal.

Whenever a pitcher of Verlander’s age picks up a seemingly minor injury such as this, it comes with an increased level of scrutiny, fair or not. Verlander is an aberration, a magical outlier who has maintained his excellence despite his fast-approaching 40th birthday. But even though his surgically repaired arm hasn’t shown any causes for concern in his first season back, this calf problem is a reminder that he’s still a human being, and someday, he’ll have to hang ‘em up.

As far as this season goes, the Verlander-sized hole in Houston’s rotation shouldn’t impact the final standings. Leading into play Tuesday, the Astros led the Mariners by 11.5 games in the AL West and led the Yankees by four games for the best record in the AL. 

Until last week, Houston had utilized a six-man rotation to try to take some of the stress off the recovering Verlander, but the Astros switched to a five-man rotation for their recent series against Baltimore, with Cristian Javier moving to the bullpen. The 25-year-old Javier, who has been phenomenal all season, to the tune of a 2.97 ERA in 115 1/3 innings, will likely leap back into a starting role to cover Verlander’s spot for the time being.

Obviously, losing Verlander for at least the next few weeks hurts, but only a complete catastrophe would derail the Astros at this point. Their lead over the Yankees for ALCS home-field advantage could come into jeopardy, but New York, loser of three straight, has looked flaky recently anyway.

Most interestingly, Verlander’s IL stint could completely reshape the American League Cy Young race. Winner of the award twice in his career, Verlander looked set to sleepwalk his way to a third. But if he misses most or all of September, his full-season numbers might not be sturdy enough to edge out the competition. That leaves the door open for a fascinating final month of pitching from the best in the AL.

Shane McClanahan and Dylan Cease, who have nearly identical numbers (147 1/3 IP vs. 144, 2.20 ERA vs. 2.27, 182 K’s vs. 190), would be the front-runners if Verlander stays sidelined. McClanahan was untouchable in the first half of the season, earning the right to start the All-Star Game, but has been much more mortal of late. Cease turned in a masterful June and July but then took a small step back in his five August outings.

Behind that pair, there’s a mishmash of guys with great numbers. Shohei Ohtani trails a bit in the innings department — not sure if you saw, but he hits, too — but might be the most untouchable pitcher in the world right now (12.38 K/9 and a 2.67 ERA in 128 IP). Toronto’s gregarious husk-lord Alek Manoah has a 2.60 ERA but is striking out less than a batter per inning. Finally, Verlander’s teammate Framber Valdez, with his 2.65 ERA in 156 IP, is also in the mix, especially when you consider Valdez’s incredible streak of 21 consecutive quality starts.

Jake Mintz, the louder half of @CespedesBBQ, is a baseball writer for FOX Sports. He’s an Orioles fan living in New York City, and thus, he leads a lonely existence most Octobers. If he’s not watching baseball, he’s almost certainly riding his bike. Follow him on Twitter @Jake_Mintz.