NFL odds Week 1: 10 betting trends to know
The NFL regular season is here! (add a little more to this intro)
FOX Sports Research analyzed historical data in Week 1 to give you an edge when making wagers this week. We dissected overall trends and a few coach- and player-specific notes. Here’s a look at the big trends that stood out.
1. Underdogs bark
Since 2000, underdogs are 175-155-14 (53%) against the spread (ATS) and 117-225 (34%) straight up (SU) in Week 1 games. If you go back even further to 1966 (the beginning of the Super Bowl era), the cover rate stays approximately the same at 402-370-25 ATS (52.1%).
2. Double-digit underdogs cover big
Since 2000, double-digit underdogs are 12-7 ATS (63.2%) and 3-16 SU (16%) in Week 1 games. Looking at a more recent sample size, that cover rate jumps to 66.7% as double-digit underdogs are 6-3 ATS in Week 1 games going back to 2010.
3. The under hits
Since 2000, the under has hit in 181 of 344 Week 1 games (52.6%). Going back to 1986 — as early as our over/under data goes back — the under hits at 50.9%, having hit in 275 of 540 games in the opening week.
4. Bills have been dominant against the Rams
Many are surprised that the reigning Super Bowl champs are 2.5-point underdogs at home on Thursday, but it might not come as such a surprise when looking at the numbers from a historical perspective. The Buffalo Bills are 7-2 ATS and SU (77.8%) against the Los Angeles Rams since 1989. As for how the total has gone when these two teams match up, the over has hit in eight of those nine games.
5. Bills might be dominant, but Sean McVay is perfect in Week 1
That being said, Rams coach Sean McVay is a perfect 5-0 ATS and 5-0 SU in Week 1 games during his head coaching career. Meaning that something has to give come Thursday.
6. Reigning Super Bowl champion is rarely a home underdog in Week 1
Reigning Super Bowl champions being home underdog in Week 1 is a rarity. Since 1966, the Super Bowl champ has only been an underdog nine times in Week 1 of the following season. In those games, the champions have gone 5-4 ATS (55.6%) and 4-5 SU (44.4%). However, of those nine instances, four of them were as home underdogs. Those teams went 4-0 ATS and 3-1 SU. Food for thought as the Rams fit that bill in Thursday night’s season opener.
7. Bet on Mike Tomlin to cover
Mike Tomlin is 14-6 ATS (70%) and 11-9 SU (55%) as a road underdog against AFC North opponents during his career. The Pittsburgh Steelers are 6.5-point underdogs vs. the Bengals in Week 1. Tomlin is also 30-20-1 (60%) ATS and 24-27 SU (47%) overall as a road underdog in his coaching career.
8. Andy Reid is ridiculously good as a road favorite
The Kansas City Chiefs are 26-17 ATS (60.5%) and 33-1 SU (97%) as road favorites under Andy Reid since 2013. Reid is also 7-6 ATS (53.8%) and 6-7 SU (46%) against the Arizona Cardinals during his head coaching career. But he is 0-2 ATS and 1-1 SU vs. the Cardinals with the Chiefs.
9. Pete Carroll and Geno Smith historically cover as home underdogs
Pete Carroll is 19-8-1 (70.4%) ATS and 15-13 SU (53.6%) as a home underdog during his head coaching career. Furthermore, he’s 16-7 ATS (69.6%) and 12-11 SU (52.2%) as a home underdog as head coach of the Seattle Seahawks. To be fair, Russell Wilson was his starting quarterback for most of those games. This next stat might be shocking as Geno Smith is 6-3 ATS (66.7%) and 3-6 SU (33.3%) as a starter as a home underdog. Seattle is currently a 6.5-point underdog against the Denver Broncos in what should be a fun Monday Night Football game.
10. Tom Brady shines as a road favorite
Tom Brady is 65-54-1 ATS (54.6%) and 88-32 SU (73.3%) as a starter as a road favorite. Brady is 7-9 ATS (43.8%) and 12-4 SU (75%) as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers starter when a road favorite. Tampa Bay is currently a 2.5-point favorite vs. the Dallas Cowboys in what should be a blockbuster Sunday night matchup.
So are you ready to place some NFL bets? Head over to FOX Bet now for all your wagers!
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