Chiefs, 49ers top Nick Wright’s NFL tiers entering Week 1

The 2022 NFL season kicks off Thursday night as the Buffalo Bills hit the road to take on the reigning-champion Los Angeles Rams.

Nick Wright and his “committee” debuted their Week 1 NFL tiers on Wednesday’s “First Things First.” His beloved Kansas City Chiefs stood alone at the top when Wright last conducted this exercise just after Super Bowl LVI. How much has changed in seven months? 

Here are the tiers, beginning with the bottom.

THOSE WHO MUST NOT BE NAMED: New England Patriots, Cleveland Browns, Detroit Lions, Houston Texans, Chicago Bears, New York Giants, New York Jets, Seattle Seahawks, Atlanta Falcons

Wright’s thoughts: “These are nine teams that have no chance to make the postseason. One of them made the postseason last year: the Patriots. They’re out. We don’t need to worry about them.”

Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs top Nick Wright’s NFL Tiers entering Week 1

Nick Wright tiers all 32 NFL teams ahead of Week 1.

TOUGH OUT: Miami Dolphins, New Orleans Saints, Pittsburgh Steelers, Jacksonville Jaguars, Carolina Panthers, Washington Commanders

Wright’s thoughts: “Each of these teams had a different committee member argue they were going to make the postseason. I argued Jags and Panthers would make it. There were some Steelers like ‘hey, did they actually get better at quarterback from decrepit Ben Roethlisberger to Mitch Trubisky or Kenny Pickett? 

“The Commanders have a little bit of buzz thanks to Carson Wentz and regular-season success. We know some people believe in the Saints defense, and Brou is a big Tua believer. They’re tough outs. At least one, probably two of these teams make the playoffs, but not good enough to be on the next rung.”

REGRESSION SEASON: Dallas Cowboys, Tennessee Titans, Las Vegas Raiders, Arizona Cardinals 

Wright’s thoughts: “Four teams that all made the playoffs last year that all should be competitive this year, but none of which will make the playoffs this year. For the Dallas Cowboys, the first-place schedule plus the loss of Amari Cooper, the injury to Michael Gallup. All of it’s too much.

“For the Titans, the loss of A.J. Brown, Derrick Henry post-Jones fracture and the hangover of Ryan Tannehill‘s playoff game. The Raiders’ division, just too much, we apologize. And for the Cardinals, no Nuk Hopkins for six games and too much Kliff Kingsbury for at least 16 games.”

TOO MUCH HYPE: Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Denver Broncos, Philadelphia Eagles, Minnesota Vikings

Wright’s thoughts: “Some of you believe in the Bucs more than Tom Brady does. The Broncos have a rookie head coach and a YouTuber at quarterback (Russell Wilson). I like the Eagles to win the division, but these folks saying they can be the No. 1 seed in the NFC, it’s Nick Sirianni and Jalen Hurts. There’s a ceiling there just like there’s a ceiling to the Vikings with Kirk Cousins at quarterback: should be good, can’t be great.”

GET OVER THE HUMP: Buffalo Bills, Green Bay Packers, Cincinnati Bengals, Indianapolis Colts

Wright’s thoughts: “The Bills … we know what the hump is: great regular season, great offense, Josh Allen can throw the ball out of the stadium. What he can’t do is go to a particular stadium, namely Arrowhead, in January and win a football game. Green Bay, what’s the hump? The NFC Championship Game. Bengals, are they going to have a Super Bowl hangover? That roster is loaded. 

“And the Colts, could this be the best quarterback Frank Reich’s ever had (Matt Ryan)? I think so. Can they get over the hump and finally be on the field the team they’ve been on paper?”

SUPER BOWL CALIBER: Baltimore Ravens, Los Angeles Chargers, Los Angeles Rams

Wright’s thoughts: “The Ravens, they dealt with devastating injuries all of last year. They will have far better injury luck this season and a motivated Lamar either because he got paid or because he’s gonna get paid. The Chargers, on paper, have the most talented roster in the NFL. Top to bottom, they have more stars than any team in the NFL. And then, of course, there’s the Rams, you know the team that’s underdogs at home to start the season who all they did last year was win the Super Bowl.”

NO. 1 CONTENDERS: San Francisco 49ers

Wright’s thoughts: “Devastating defense, devastating running game that’ll be the best that Kyle Shanahan’s ever had because he now has a quarterback who can execute that running game. Deebo Samuel under contract. Brandon Aiyuk having his best camp ever. George Kittle‘s the second-best tight end still looming out there.

“They will have a better quarterback than they have had at any point in the Shanahan era by the end of the year once Trey Lance has starts under his belt.”

FAVORITES: Kansas City Chiefs

Wright’s thoughts: “We all know they have the best coach-quarterback combo in football, but right now, given that Belichick is in his silver years, do they have the single-best coach in football (Andy Reid) and the single-best quarterback in football (Patrick Mahomes)? They might. They have a young, hungry defense, and have you heard that the old Frank Clark could be back? The Chiefs and they’re underdogs now? Feels like the favorites.”