Pitching Ninja’s Filthiest Pitches: Sandy Alcántara leads NL Cy Young race

By Rob Friedman, aka “Pitching Ninja”
FOX Sports MLB Analyst

The NL Cy Young race is a four-horse race, fittingly led by Sandy Alcántara, whose nickname is “El Caballo.”

No doubt, Alcántara has been a workhorse this season, and he has had a big lead in the Cy Young race most of the year. However, in contrast to a racehorse running away from the field in the Belmont, Alcántara seems to be faltering somewhat down the stretch, with a pack of three pitchers behind him making moves. 

Can Alcántara hold off the late-charging contenders? Let’s take a look.

1. Down the stretch, it’s Alcántara out in front.

Alcántara has been brilliant for most of the season. He has carried the heaviest workload of any pitcher in baseball, throwing 196.2 innings so far, or more than 15 more innings than anyone else in MLB. He has thrown four complete games, twice as many as any other pitcher and, amazingly, more than any team this season. Alcántara leads the majors in WAR among pitchers and has an impressive 2.43 ERA over his 196.2 innings.

Alcántara’s changeup is the most valuable changeup in baseball in terms of run value, and it’s the eighth-most valuable pitch overall. It’s also one of the fastest changeups in the game, averaging 91.7 mph. The only starters with faster average changeups are his teammate Edward Cabrera and the most dominant pitcher in baseball, Jacob deGrom.

Here’s a look at Alcántara’s wicked changeup:

Opponents are hitting .148 against that changeup. And what makes it changeup even filthier is that Alcántara pairs it with a high-velocity sinker that averages nearly 98 mph. 

The combination of changeup and sinker is lethal, as you can see in this overlay.

Alcántara also has a unique slider that occasionally breaks the “wrong way,” making it a guessing game for hitters as to how the pitch will move.

This overlay shows how Alcántara’s sinker, slider and changeup work together to create a Bermuda Triangle for hitters. 

Alcántara is undoubtedly the front-runner for the NL Cy Young award, but his past three outings have been less than stellar, as he has given up five or more runs in each. If he continues to falter, here are the three pitchers waiting to make their moves.

2. Max Fried is a few lengths back.

Fried has been outstanding in 2022. He has a 2.50 ERA and is third in pitcher WAR, thanks to his filthy array of fastballs, curveballs, sliders and changeups.

Fried’s changeup has been a new weapon for him this season. He barely threw it in the regular season in 2021 (2.2% usage), but in 2022, Fried has thrown his changeup almost 14% of the time, and it has been a great pitch for him. Opponents are hitting .165 against his changeup, with a nearly 37% whiff rate.

Here’s a look at Fried’s changeup movement: 

That changeup also works well with Fried’s fastball. Here’s an overlay to show how he uses his fastball/changeup combo to keep hitters off-balance. 

Of course, Fried is well-known for having one of the prettiest curveballs in baseball as well. 

When paired with his fastball, the curveball can make hitters look silly, thanks to the movement and velocity differential of those two pitches. 

Here’s a fastball/curveball combination with a 20 mph speed differential:

3. Julio Urías making a move?

Urías’ 2022 season has undoubtedly been one of the best in the National League. He has a league-leading 2.30 ERA combined with an ERA+ of 183 and a 16-7 record. While he has thrown fewer innings than some other Cy Young contenders (152.2, more than 40 fewer than Alcántara), Urías has pitched at an elite level all season.

His curveball is a real sweeper and averages more than 16 inches of horizontal break. Check out the incredible movement of his curveball from this home plate angle.

He also features a nasty changeup that has a more than 30% whiff rate. 

Finally, Urías’ fastball has a batting average against of .174, second-lowest among starting pitchers with more than 250 plate appearances.

4. Zac Gallen‘s late charge

Gallen is perhaps the most underrated ace in baseball. He had an amazing scoreless streak of 44.1 innings snapped this week, the seventh-longest in MLB history, yet it seemed that few outside the most ardent baseball fans noticed.

Gallen has the lowest WHIP among qualified starters in the National League, at 0.91, and has given up only 5.9 hits per nine innings, with an ERA of 2.50.

His arsenal features a hammer knuckle curve that has brought many hitters to their knees.

He also has a knockout changeup, as you can see here. 

Winning the Cy Young would mean a lot to Gallen. Perhaps most importantly, it would mean that Gallen would no longer be most famous for this legendarily hilarious video bomb while he was at North Carolina. 

Honorable mention: Spencer Strider, the NL’s most electric pitcher

While he has thrown only 120 innings, which isn’t enough for him to be considered a Cy Young contender, in my view, the most electric pitcher in the National League is Spencer Strider. Strider has averaged 13.6 strikeouts per nine innings this season and is must-watch baseball every time he steps on the mound. He’s also a leading contender for NL Rookie of the Year.

Strider’s fastball has the seventh-highest run value of any pitch in baseball and has topped out at 102 mph, which at the time was the fastest in Statcast history by a starting pitcher.

And Strider’s slider (yes, I’m a poet), modeled after deGrom’s slider, has turned into a weapon. 

Even though he is shorter in stature, I’ve dubbed Spencer Strider “Quadzilla” because of his powerful lower half that helps generate his devastating velocity.

If Strider duplicates this effort in 2023, look for him to be a contender for next year’s Cy Young award. That is, unless the most dominant pitcher on the planet (deGrom) is healthy the entire season.

Rob Friedman is an MLB pitching analyst for FOX Sports whose work has been featured on many Major League Baseball broadcasts. Follow him on Twitter @PitchingNinja.