College football odds Week 3: How to bet Michigan State-Washington
The University of Washington will face Michigan State on Saturday for the first time since 1997, but Huskies starting quarterback Michael Penix Jr. and head coach Kalen DeBoer are familiar with the Spartans.
Penix Jr., then a redshirt freshman at Indiana, completed a school-record 20 consecutive passes in the 40-31 loss to Michigan State in 2019. Penix’s offensive coordinator that season? DeBoer, in his first season as Washington’s coach.
Penix, who was 12-5 as a starter at Indiana before transferring to Washington to reunite with DeBoer, and the Huskies play host to the No. 11 Spartans on Saturday in a matchup of 2-0 teams.
Here’s everything you need from a betting perspective on the Spartans-Huskies game, from the point spread, moneyline and total over/under (odds via FOX Bet):
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No. 11 Michigan State @ Washington (7:30 p.m. ET Saturday, ABC)
Point spread: Washington -3 (Washington favored to win by more than 3 points, otherwise Michigan State covers)
Moneyline: Washington -167 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $15.99 total); Michigan State +130 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $23 total)
Total scoring over/under: 57 points scored by both teams combined
Michigan State coach Mel Tucker is familiar with the Huskies. Before taking over Michigan State, Tucker was the coach in 2019 of the Colorado Buffaloes, a member of the Pac-12 Conference along with Washington.
Quarterback Payton Thorne is 30-for-52 passing (57.7%) for 445 yards, four touchdowns and three interceptions for the Spartans.
Penix Jr. is 46-for-66 passing (69.7%) for 682 yards, six touchdowns and one interception for the Huskies.
Washington leads the all-time series, 2-1.
Michigan State is 5-1 against the spread (ATS) in its past six games.
The total has gone under in the over/under in four of the Spartans’ past six road games.
Michigan State is 2-11 ATS in its past 13 games against an opponent from the Pac-12 Conference.
Washington is 5-11 ATS in its past 16 games.
The total has gone under in the O/U in five of the Huskies’ past seven home games.
The total has gone under in five of Washington’s past seven games against a Big Ten opponent.
Pick by FOX Sports betting analyst Geoff Schwartz:
I’m going with the Spartans getting over a field goal worth of points against the Huskies.
I know what Michigan State is. They are going to pound the rock with Jalen Berger and Jarek Broussard. They have 58 carries and 362 yards through two weeks. Now, Michigan State has played a directional Michigan school and Akron, so they should rush the ball well. But we saw last season this is their identity.
On the other hand, we have a Washington defense that struggled to stop the run last season. After playing Kent State and Portland State, it’s hard to see if any upgrade in 2022 will come from that run defense. Also of note, Washington has struggled as a whole to rush the passer in their first two games. Only 10 pressures and Bralen Trice accounts for half of those.
Washington Huskies fans are delighted to see the return of a downfield pass to this offense. Under first-year head coach Kalen DeBoer, the Washington passing attack is humming through two weekends. Indiana transfer Michael Penix Jr. has completed 69.7% of his 66 passing attempts for 682 yards and six touchdowns.
Now Washington is facing a Michigan State passing defense that was suspect last season so they can move the ball. My concern for the Huskies’ passing attack is Michigan State’s ability to win with its front seven. After two weeks of the season, they rank first in defensive havoc rate with 22 pressures in the first two games. Washington’s offensive line had a rough 2021, and it’s difficult to judge the team’s improvement after two games against teams who didn’t belong on the field with them.
So I expect some tough resistance from the Spartan defense this weekend.
I’m almost always going to back a team strong in the trenches that are getting points. Especially when we know who they are as a squad.
So I’ll back the Spartans in this one.
PICK: Michigan State (+3 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 3 points (or win outright)
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