College football odds Week 5: USC to cover, other best bets

By Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports NFL Analyst

Another awesome weekend of college football is on the horizon. After four weeks, we have a better idea of what each team will actually look like for the remainder of the season. 

In Week 5, I’m looking at what we now know and placing my wagers accordingly. Like last week, I’ve got my eye on the Pac-12, as that is my bread and butter. 

There are some intriguing matchups in the conference this week. Can we trust the Ducks to cover? Will the Beavers bounce back after almost beating the Trojans?

Let’s dive into my best bets for Week 5 of this college football season!

Arizona State @ No. 6 USC (10:30 p.m. ET Saturday, ESPN)

Things could not get worse for Arizona State right now. The Sun Devils head coach got fired two weeks ago. Then they didn’t even look slightly competitive against a strong Utah squad last weekend, losing 34-13. Now they travel to Los Angeles to face a USC offense primed for a get-right game. USC will pour on the points. 

The Trojans have an explosive offensive attack. They’ve got Heisman hopeful Caleb Williams at quarterback, Jordan Addison and Mario Williams at receiver and Travis Dye at running back. They are 18th in explosive play rate, 12th in rushing success rate, and they convert nearly 50% of their third-down opportunities. However, they did not play up to expectations on Saturday night against Oregon State. 

Caleb Williams was 15 of 36 for 160 yards and only one passing touchdown. Credit Oregon State for its defensive strategy. The Beavers have the most veteran secondary group in the conference, and they played to their strength. They were not going to allow big plays through the air, but instead, they conceded rushing numbers. USC had 101 rushing yards in the first quarter before going away from the run until the fourth quarter. Arizona State does not have the defense or the patience to attempt what the Beavers did on Saturday night. 

Arizona State’s defense ranks 85th in points per drive, 112th in rushing success rate and 122nd in passing success rate. As you’d expect, the Sun Devils don’t rush the passer well and don’t create the havoc plays needed to slow down the Trojans. Before the Oregon State game, USC had scored 11 touchdowns on 15 first-half drives, with two of the non-touchdown drives ending with the half. 

I expect to see that offensive efficiency return against a Sun Devils squad looking to ride out the season until they find a new head coach. 

I’ll take USC to cover the first half before the Trojans let their foot off the gas.

PICK: USC -14.5 1st half

Stanford @ No. 13 Oregon (11 p.m. ET Saturday, FS1)

No matter the point spread, the records or how we think the game should go, Stanford always finds a way to be a thorn in the side of the Ducks. Whether they are derailing a 2012 championship run, coming back from 17 points down in Autzen to win in overtime in 2018 (the last home loss for the Ducks) or just playing their best game of the season to beat Oregon (2021), they are always a pain in the butt. 

Stanford has stunk lately. They’ve lost nine straight games to Power 5 opponents by an average margin of almost 20. But I still cannot wager on the Ducks to cover. However, I also don’t feel comfortable wagering on Stanford because they are not good. The only case I can make is that this game stays close. 

But I do love a wager in this game. 

It’s fair to say I had some skepticism about the Ducks’ offense heading into this season. Oregon’s offensive coordinator is 32 years old and had not been in charge of his own offense yet. The Ducks got transfer quarterback Bo Nix from Auburn, who tends to have “Bad Bo Nix” moments. However, outside a few throws against Georgia and that one horrendous interception against Washington State last weekend, Nix has been outstanding. 

The Ducks’ offense is driven by their offensive line. They allow no sacks and rank first in pressure rate allowed. They are fourth in rushing success rate, and they have four running backs averaging over five yards a carry. Nix has led a passing attack that is fifth in success rate and ranks 18th overall in points per drive. This number includes a three-point output against Georgia. This offense is humming, and Stanford should not pose a threat. 

Stanford’s defense ranks 110th in success rate, 113th in stopping the run and 94th against the pass. Their overall defensive havoc rate is 130th! They are 100th in points per drive and have allowed opponents 41 and 40 points over the last two games. Because of Oregon’s ability to run the ball, even if the Ducks get up big and slow the offense down, they will score points with huge chunk plays. 

Give me Oregon over 40.5 points this weekend.

PICK: Oregon team total over 40.5 points

Oregon State @ No. 12 Utah (2 p.m. ET Saturday, Pac-12 Network)

Poor Beavers. Coach Jonathan Smith has been building this program over the last four seasons to be ready for the kind of contest they had Saturday night when the Beavs had a chance for a huge upset. They led USC late in the fourth quarter before losing 17-14. Now they travel to Utah to play the best team in the conference and are bound to have an emotional letdown in this game.

For starters, playing in Utah is brutal. The Utes have not lost a home game since early 2018 and often win their home games by double digits. They are an offense built on physicality — rushing the ball with a purpose. They are 25th in rushing success rate, even with their best running back missing parts of games. 

Why is this important? Because Oregon State struggles to stop the run. The Beavers rank 110th in rushing defense. This allows offenses to have manageable third downs. Ultimately, teams convert on third down with too much ease against the Beavers’ 85th-ranked third down defense. This is not ideal against a Utah offense led by quarterback Cam Rising, who is steady and mistake-free. Now, Utah’s offense will need to adjust to losing their best offensive weapon in tight end Brant Kuithe, but I do not believe that will matter too much this weekend.

On the flip side, we saw the biggest weakness on the Beavers’ offense last weekend – quarterback Chance Nolan. I love the creativity in their offense as it generates big plays for their passing game via play-action pass. However, when they can’t run the ball and have third-and-long situations, Nolan struggles to move the offense. Utah has the rushing defense to bog down the Beavers’ rushing attack and force Nolan to have to be the offense.

This is not ideal for the Beavers, and it feels like a game where things spin out of control quickly. 

I like the Utes to cover the 10.5

PICK: Utah (-10.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 10.5 points

Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

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