NFL odds Week 4: Are bettors getting over on the under?

By Patrick Everson
FOX Sports Gambling Writer

When it comes to NFL betting, scoring is what most wagering customers want. And even when the evidence suggests going against that want, well … points are what most wagering customers want to see. But can stats stop gamblers from banking on points when betting on the NFL?

Let’s dive in.

Public knows what it wants

Most bettors – read: public bettors – generally want to fire on the over. But, over the first three weeks of the season, the under in the over/under (O/U) is 30-18 (62.5%).

The under trend is even stronger in primetime games, sitting at 7-3 so far.

Jason Scott, vice president of trading for BetMGM, is well aware of the under trend in all 48 games played this season and more so in the primetime tilts. But he’s not seeing much, if any, change in habits.

“We haven’t seen a substantial alteration in betting pattern from the majority of our customers, and certainly no differentiation between day and night games,” Scott said.

Scott’s latter point is interesting because primetime unders – while paying off nicely at a 70% clip – could easily be sitting at 9-1 this season.

The Week 3 Thursday night game between the Steelers and Browns had a closing total of 38. At the two-minute warning, Cleveland led 23-14. Pittsburgh kicked a field goal to pull within 23-17 with 1:48 remaining to secure the over. Then, after getting the ball back in the waning seconds, the Steelers fumbled, and the Browns recovered in the end zone, sealing a 29-17 victory.

And the Week 3 Monday night game – with a consensus closing total of 38.5 – saw the Cowboys leading the Giants 6-3 at halftime. It took a 30-point second half – capped by New York kicker Graham Gano’s 51-yard field goal with 3:37 remaining – for the game to barely crawl beyond the total, with Dallas winning 26-13 on the road.

There is NO quarterback controversy in Dallas right? | THE HERD

Dallas Cowboys insider Matt Mosley joins Colin Cowherd and discusses whether or not there is a quarterback controversy in Dallas.

Magnetic attraction

Scott noted an interesting dynamic, as his book – and surely others – have been adjusting totals this season, but that’s only made overs more appealing.

“Totals are opening lower than previous seasons, which also attracts customers that like to bet the overs,” Scott said.

At some point in most NFL seasons, whenever bettors are on a good run against the bookmakers, or vice versa, the pendulum ultimately swings the other way. Perhaps bettors are banking on that happening soon. More so, they just want excitement on the field, and their financial backing reflects that desire every week, regardless of trends.

“People like points and big plays, so the recreational players are still leaning to betting the overs at the same rate as we have previously experienced,” Scott said.

Get in early on primetime

Hand-in-hand with the primetime under trend is the primetime first-half under. That trend is middling so far this season, with the under sitting at 5-4-1 in night games. But it went 2-1 in Week 1 and 2-1 in Week 3.

James McWilliams, sportsbook operations manager for BetFred, has been tracking primetime first-half unders since the beginning of the 2021 season. His recap? It’s been paying off for those who latched onto it.

After a 2-4 start through two weeks of last season, primetime first-half unders were 27-14 through Week 13, representing the high point of a 65.8% cash rate. First-half unders in night games finished at 33-21 last season, still a money-winning 61%.

“Primetime unders have always been circled on my sheet,” McWilliams said. “NFL primetime typically, in my experience, has brought gamblers out from the dark. We all know people love betting overs, and that’s where the opportunity comes in.”

Particularly, McWilliams said, with first-half unders in night matchups.

“All it really takes is two to three drives in the first quarter that end with a field goal or turnover, and you’re sitting on a gold mine,” he said. “NFL drives, for the most part, kill five to eight minutes if they go the length of the field. And tons of kickers can hit field goals consistently.”

Directly related to the preponderance of field goals: conservative play-calling is often prominent in the first half.

“Coaches like to play it safe, as we all know, where kicking 48- to 58-yard field goals is an easy decision in most cases. And that’s where you get the opportunity for misses,” McWilliams said. “Primetime games also just feel bigger for the players, and it always feels like defenses play at a different intensity in these games.”

Emptying the bottle

McWilliams said NFL primetime games tend to attract four times the ticket count of typical Sunday NFL games at BetFred. And with people betting overs in these high-profile standalone contests, be it the full game or first half, the totals tend to get inflated, a point McWilliams can’t stress enough.

“I view the over/under as always inflated, based on knowing the public is going to back the over regardless of the number. Nobody ever wants to bet an under,” McWilliams said. “The way NFL turnovers and penalties have been occurring, it’s just really hard to hit these over numbers. Holding penalties, which happen often, are absolute drive killers. NFL punters, for the most part, flip the field.

“A few punts from each team, and you’ll see that clock drain faster than a bottle of Jameson in an Irish pub.”

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He previously worked for Covers and is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.

Download the FOX Super 6 app for your chance to win thousands of dollars on the biggest sporting events each and every week! Just make your picks, and you could win the grand prize. Download and play today!