NFL odds Week 4: How to bet Bills-Ravens
The Buffalo Bills hit the road to take on the Baltimore Ravens in Week 4 of the 2022 NFL season.
Buffalo and Baltimore are coming off differing Week 3 outcomes. Buffalo fell to 2-1 with a 21-19 loss to the Miami Dolphins. Baltimore is also 2-1 after defeating the New England Patriots, 37-26.
Is this a preview of another playoff matchup? Can Lamar Jackson get revenge for the last time these teams faced each other — a divisional round loss suffered in January 2021? Or will Josh Allen & Co. make up for last week’s loss down in the heat of Miami?
Who will come out on top in this AFC East-AFC North showdown?
Here’s everything you need from a betting perspective on the Bills-Ravens game, from the point spread, moneyline, total over/under and expert insight from Warren Sharp (odds via FOX Bet):
RELATED: Week 4 lines, odds
Bills @ Ravens (1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)
Point spread: Buffalo -3 (Bills favored to win by more than 3 points, otherwise Ravens cover)
Moneyline: Bills -162 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $16.17 total); Ravens +130 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $24 total)
Total scoring over/under: 51 points scored by both teams combined
FOX Sports Betting Analyst Warren Sharp:
So far on the season, the Ravens have played the Jets, Dolphins and Patriots.
In the first three quarters of games, the Jets and Dolphins are two of the three teams to use 2-high safeties at the lowest rate in the NFL. They simply do not play these 2-high shells at all.
The Jets are about a league-average rate.
But the Bills play 2-high at the No. 2 highest rate in the NFL. Completely different than what the Ravens have faced to date.
The other thing that is similar about all the defenses the Ravens have played thus far is their blitz rate. The Ravens and Dolphins both blitzed Lamar at a well above average rate, which is really no surprise for the Dolphins in particular. And the Jets didn’t blitz as much but generated no pressure unless they did blitz. When not blitzing, they generated pressure at just a 19% rate, well below NFL average.
The Bills, on the other hand, don’t blitz at all, literally, and still rank No. 2 in pressure rate at just over 40%.
Jackson has absolutely diced defenses that blitzed him. He has the No. 1 efficiency vs. the blitz of any quarterback this year.
Jackson has faced 2-high coverage teams last year with a lot of success, but most of the top teams in the NFL, like the Chiefs, Bills, Bucs, Packers and Eagles are all using 2-high a lot more than average, so this is a great test for the Ravens passing attack and the first time this season they’ll face a defense who plays a ton of 2-high, doesn’t blitz and records a lot of pressure.
I think the Ravens could be a frisky home underdog in one of the weekend’s best games.
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