NFL odds Week 4: Bettors strike back at sportsbooks, win big on Chiefs, more

By Patrick Everson
FOX Sports Gambling Writer

The highest-profile game on the NFL Week 4 odds board was, without a doubt, the Kansas City Chiefs at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

It was a Pros vs. Joes matchup, with sharp play coming in throughout the week on Tampa Bay, helping move the Bucs from as much as 3-point underdogs to 2-point favorites at home.

“For one of the few times in the last 20 years, the public is against Tom Brady,” BetMGM vice president of trading Jason Scott said shortly before Sunday night’s game.

And that proved to be the right side for the public, one of several games in which bettors got some redemption after three rough weeks.

Hail to the Chiefs

Kansas City built a 28-10 second-quarter lead and was never really threatened from that point forward. The Chiefs posted a 41-31 victory as consensus 2-point road ‘dogs.

Scott said contrary to the big line move, BetMGM needed the Bucs in all ways. Zachary Lucas, director of retail sports for TwinSpires Sportsbook, echoed that sentiment and then some.

“It was the worst-case scenario. We needed Tampa Bay and Under. The public swept us there,” Lucas said.

Indeed, by kickoff, most books had the total at either 47 or 47.5. K.C. and Tampa practically reached that mark by halftime, with the Chiefs holding a 28-17 lead. A Kansas City field goal less than four minutes into the third quarter made winners of Over bettors.

One sportsbook, though, made out OK with that result. WynnBet actually needed Kansas City.

“Today wasn’t very good for us, although the Chiefs recouped a decent amount of those losses,” WynnBet senior trader Chris Youn said.

Bettors Get Some Back

The first three weeks of the NFL season generally belonged to the oddsmakers, and perhaps professional bettors. Recreational bettors took a bath on the NFL in September.

But the Chiefs’ victory – WynnBet notwithstanding – brought some much-needed positive results for the betting public, as did a few other key games.

“The Bills, Titans and Jets were not great decisions [for us],” Youn said.

Buffalo overcame a 20-3 first-half deficit to beat Baltimore 23-20. WynnBet closed pregame with Buffalo as a 3-point favorite, so everybody who bet Bills -3 got a refund. And everyone who had the Bills on the moneyline – Buffalo was surely in a bundle of moneyline parlays at every sportsbook – got paid out, too.

Tennessee was a public ‘dog at Indianapolis in Week 5, closing at +4. The Titans darted to a 24-3 second-quarter lead and, despite not scoring again, won outright 24-17.

The Jets were 2-point pups at Pittsburgh and rallied from a 20-10 fourth-quarter deficit with a pair of TDs to win 24-20.

Late-Breaking News

For TwinSpires, the Chiefs’ big win capped a run of late decisions that fell in favor of the bettors.

“This was our first losing week of the NFL season, mainly due to the afternoon/evening games. We went 0-4 to end the day,” Lucas said. “The Patriots’ cover was fine, but Green Bay moneyline was a big parlay liability.”

New England was down to its third-string QB. Starter Mac Jones (ankle) missed Sunday’s game, and backup Brian Hoyer suffered a head injury in the first quarter. In came rookie third-stringer Bailey Zappe, and the Pats – who closed as 9.5-point road underdogs – actually led the Packers multiple times.

Green Bay tied it at 24 with 6:24 remaining in the fourth quarter, and the game ultimately went to overtime. A Mason Crosby 31-yard field goal gave the Pack a 27-24 win, and while New England easily covered the spread – a good result for the book – all the Packers moneyline parlay liability survived – a great result for many bettors.

Beating the Bookies

The SuperBook joined the list of losers in the NFL Week 4 odds market. Senior risk supervisor Casey Degnon pointed to two key decisions.

“Our biggest decision of the day was on Houston +5, which didn’t go our way,” Degnon said, noting the book needed a cover from the Texans, who failed to get there in a 34-24 home loss to the Chargers. “The Ravens losing by 3 was no good, and the hometown Raiders covering was also a negative result for us. It was a losing Sunday for the book.”

Las Vegas, a 2.5-point home favorite against Denver, finally got its first win of the season with a 32-23 decision.

Back to School

By contrast, Saturday’s college football docket worked out well at The Superbook. Risk manager Neil Fitzroy pointed to three significant decisions.

“We had an excellent day Saturday. Georgia and Iowa not covering were great for us. Also, Purdue beating Minnesota was huge,” Fitzroy said.

The Georgia-Missouri game was one of the biggest surprises Saturday and would’ve been more so if Mizzou could have finished off the upset. The Tigers twice led by 13 in the first half – 13-0 and 16-3 – and took a 22-12 lead one minute into the fourth quarter.

But the top-ranked Bulldogs rallied with a pair of touchdowns to win 26-22. Still, that left Georgia miles short of covering as a massive 30.5-point road favorite. 

And despite its persistent inability to score much, Iowa got some support at home as a 10.5-point dog against No. 4 Michigan. Perhaps not surprisingly, the Hawkeyes were shut out until the opening play of the fourth quarter and lost 27-14, a field goal short of covering the number.

Meanwhile, Purdue pulled the upset at Minnesota, winning 20-10 as a 9.5-point pup.

WynnBet also fared well in the college football Week 5 odds market.

“It was a decent college football day, with Missouri covering,” Youn said, while also noting wins by Kansas State and Washington State. 

Interestingly, both those teams were favorites, yet the book needed both. Kansas State topped Texas Tech 37-28, covering as a 7.5-point home favorite, and Washington State rolled 28-9 as a 4.5-point home fave against California.

I Like Big Bets and I Cannot Lie

Caesars Sports had a high roller drop into Las Vegas last week, who pounded a few NFL teams with six-figure bets. The results certainly weren’t ideal for that customer.

Topping the list were two $220,000 major wagers: on the Jets +3.5 at the Steelers, a winner for the bettor; and on the Packers -9.5 vs. the Patriots, a loser. The bettor cashed with a $120,000 wager on Cowboys -3 (-120), with Dallas notching a 25-10 victory.

But a pair of $110,000 bets went begging on Buccaneers +1 vs. the Chiefs and the Browns -1 vs. the Falcons. Atlanta won 23-20.

A mixed bag for the gambler, but a net negative result. We move on to next week!

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He previously worked for Covers and is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.

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