Pitching Ninja’s Filthiest Pitches: Verlander, Valdez leading Astros into October

By Rob Friedman, aka “Pitching Ninja”
FOX Sports MLB Analyst

The Houston Astros‘ pitching staff is undoubtedly one of the best and deepest in baseball. The Astros rank second in MLB in team ERA (2.93) and fourth in baseball in strikeouts. They have gotten by far the most quality starts from their starters (92; San Diego is second with 81), and they’re second in MLB in batting average against (.213).

Dominant pitching has helped lead the Astros to the second-best record in baseball behind only the Dodgers. Can Houston’s pitching carry the team to a championship? Let’s look at what makes the Astros’ pitching so formidable and dig in to see what weaknesses they might have.

Justin Verlander: Cy Young lock leads the way 

Verlander is the unquestioned ace of the Astros. Despite being 39 years old — an age when most power pitchers have lost their velocity and turn into crafty veterans to navigate a lineup — and even after missing nearly two years due to Tommy John surgery, Verlander can still dominate hitters with overpowering stuff.

He is having perhaps the best season of his career on the mound. He leads the major leagues with a 1.80 ERA, the lowest of any American League pitcher with at least 170 innings since Pedro Martinez’s 1.74 ERA in 2000.

Amazingly, Verlander has four pitches that have held opponents under a .200 batting average. Hitters are hitting .198 against his fastball, .196 against his slider, .158 against his curveball and .176 against his changeup.

Despite being a supposedly “aging” pitcher, Verlander relies on his fastball more than any other pitch in his arsenal, throwing it more than 50% of the time. In fact, his fastball, which still touches 99 mph, is the most valuable four-seam fastball in baseball in terms of run value.

Verlander’s slider has a 33.5% whiff rate and complements his fastball by creating excellent tunneling action. This overlay shows how tough that combination is for hitters.

Lastly, because Verlander often throws elevated fastballs, you must respect his curveball (which he throws 19% of the time). The curveball can look just like a high fastball, but then it suddenly drops into or out of the zone with its ferocious 12-6 downward break.

Verlander also is a postseason veteran, having started 30 postseason games in his career, with a 14-11 record and 205 strikeouts in 187.2 postseason innings. He has been the best pitcher in the American League this season. Expect him to continue to lead the way for the Astros in the postseason.

Framber Valdez: A quality start machine

Valdez has been outstanding this season, breaking the all-time consecutive quality start record with an incredible 25 consecutive quality starts (pitching six innings or more, allowing three earned runs or fewer). Valdez is 16-6 with a 2.89 ERA while throwing 196.1 innings this season, third-most in the American League. 

Valdez’s best pitches are his curveball and his cutter. His curveball is sixth-best in baseball in terms of run value. It averages 2850 RPMs and has an outstanding 45.2% whiff rate, second-highest of any curveball in baseball (min. 600 pitches).

Valdez’s curveball can flat-out embarrass hitters:

The curveball is even more effective because it tunnels very well with his fastball. You can see here how the curveball looks like a fastball but then dives out of the swing path.

Valdez’s cutter looks a bit slider-ish and is another quality off-speed pitch. Opponents are hitting .123 against this cutter.

Valdez stumbled a bit in his past two outings, raising his ERA from 2.57 to 2.89. My concern with him is whether this is a temporary blip in an otherwise stellar season or his heavy workload finally wearing him down. 

Lance McCullers: The Astros’ filthiest starter

McCullers has thrown limited innings in 2022 due to injury, but in those few outings, he has shown that his stuff is as nasty as ever. This season, he has a 2.38 era with 9.7 Ks/9 and a .205 batting average against.

McCullers relies on filthy breaking balls to dominate opponents, throwing both his knuckle curve and slider more than he throws his fastball. Strategically, this makes sense, given that opponents are hitting .100 against his knuckle curve with a 37.2% whiff rate and .163 against his slider with a 33.8% whiff rate.

McCullers’ knuckle curve is legendary, with him once throwing a mind-blowing 24 consecutive knuckle curves to dominate the Yankees in the postseason.

The pitch remains filthy.

McCullers added a slider to his arsenal last year, and that pitch has been an absolute weapon. He can go front door or back door with it, and it breaks up to 20 inches horizontally.

Lastly, McCullers features a top-notch changeup, which averages more drop and arm-side run than most changeups and has a nearly 35% whiff rate. 

McCullers is a fierce competitor with wicked stuff and substantial postseason experience. Look for him to be an X-factor in Houston’s postseason run.

Cristian Javier: Young ace

Javier has been tremendous in 2022, with an 11-9 record with a 2.54 era. With those results, it’s tough to remember that he’s still only 25 years old.

Javier dominates opponents with his invisi-ball fastball; he has held the opposition to a .183 batting average with a 27.3% whiff rate. Despite not having super high velocity (less than 94 mph), the combination of Javier’s arm angle and spin makes his fastball very tough to hit.

Javier’s slider is another important weapon. Opponents hit .121 against the pitch this season, with a 39.4% whiff rate. 

Looking at the movement of that slider, and you can see why:

Ryan Pressly: Shutting the door

Pressly can spin the baseball as well as anyone in the game. His buzzsaw curveball has the highest average spin rate in baseball, averaging 3,274 RPMs, and is a big reason Pressly has picked up 32 saves this season while averaging 12 Ks/9. 

Opponents hit just .133 against Pressly’s curveball.

Pressly also features a wicked slider that has an astonishing 51.8% whiff rate. 

These two breaking balls combined with a mid-90s fastball help make Pressly a reliable shutdown closer.

Ryne Stanek: Power arm with a devastating splitter

Stanek has had a great 2022 season, with a 1.17 ERA and 10.4 K/9. Opponents hit .184 against his combination of an overpowering fastball (averaging 98.3 mph), filthy splitter and slider. 

Stanek’s splitter is particularly lethal, with a 44% whiff rate. I also love how he competes against hitters. You can see both Stanek’s splitter and his competitive fire here.

Other noteworthy arms:

Rafael Montero is a solid bullpen option with a 2.39 ERA and an electric fastball. Opponents hit .191 against his fastball, with a 35% whiff rate.

He occasionally steals souls with his two-seamer.

Hunter Brown: Verlander, part 2?

Brown has been an exciting new option for the Astros’ bullpen. With a fastball that touches 99 mph and a ferocious slider and knuckle curve, he has 1.00 ERA with 19 strikeouts in 18 innings since his major-league debut. I’m a big fan of his stuff.

Brown also features a slider with the highest average velocity of any slider in baseball!

Also worth mentioning is that Brown’s mechanics look eerily familiar to those of his idol, Justin Verlander.

I’d love to see Brown pick up some quality innings in the postseason.

Bryan Abreu’s slider is one of the best individual pitches in the Astros’ pen, with 50.8% whiff rate.

Looking at the movement on his slider, it’s no wonder.

This disgusting slider is a big reason Abreu has 86 K’s in 59.1 innings with a 1.97 ERA this season.

Luis Garcia is a pitcher fans love or hate, almost solely due to his unique salsa/rock the baby mechanics that … well … make him a bit of a human rain delay. 

That said, Garcia provides another valuable option for the Astros’ pitching depth, as does José Urquidy, who can help share the pitching load … even though apparently Urquidy doesn’t like sharing anything.

The Astros have a bunch of tough decisions to make as they fill out their postseason pitching roster, but that’s a first-world baseball problem. 

As you can see, their pitching staff is incredibly deep, and because of this depth, they’ll be a tough out in the postseason. 

Rob Friedman is an MLB pitching analyst for FOX Sports whose work has been featured on many Major League Baseball broadcasts. Follow him on Twitter @PitchingNinja.