Dodgers' pitching built on depth and competence; will that work in October?

By Pedro Moura
FOX Sports MLB Writer

The Dodgers are a few days away from completing one of the most dominant regular seasons in their sport’s history. Entering play Tuesday, their run differential stood at plus-332, the best since World War II. Since the turn of the 20th century, only four squads — three of them Yankees — have done better. And the Dodgers have not only won 110 games; they have also won them handily.

For all of that rare success, they are likely to begin postseason play in something of a predicament: They can’t count on premier pitchers to handle all the high leverage October will bring.

In fact, the Dodgers’ probable first opponent, the New York Mets, probably boast more elite, healthy pitching than L.A. does. Ask a talent evaluator to select three pitchers from the two teams’ current rosters, and there’s a good chance they’re picking all Mets because Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer and Edwin Diaz are all in top form. The Dodgers would still be favored to outlast the Mets over five games, but it’s an unfavorable situation.

The Dodgers won so much and so easily this season because they have an unparalleled collection of competent players. They were better equipped than their peers to withstand inevitable injuries. This has been the norm for them since soon after Andrew Friedman took over baseball operations before 2015, and 2022 took it up two notches.

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But the playoffs don’t value competence as much as the regular season does. Fewer players are needed in October. Star pitchers can throw a greater percentage of innings.

The Dodgers don’t exactly have star pitchers, though plenty of their pitchers have had plenty of success this season. Likely Nos. 1 and 2 starters Julio Urías and Clayton Kershaw have 2.12 and 2.30 ERAs. Likely Nos. 3 and 4 starters Tyler Anderson and Tony Gonsolin, just returning from injury, have 2.57 and 2.14 ERAs.

No Dodgers have stayed healthy while striking out opponents at the rate that is so important come October, when margins are smaller. Urías’ strikeout rate is a middling 8.6 per nine innings; Kershaw’s is 9.5. DeGrom’s is 14.3, and Scherzer’s is 10.7. The Dodgers’ top reliever is, somehow, Evan Phillips, he of the 1.16 ERA. His strikeout rate is 10.7; Diaz’s is 17.4. Chris Martin, a journeyman who has excelled since his deadline acquisition, is at 11.7.

On the eve of this season, the Dodgers acquired longtime closer Craig Kimbrel for exactly this reason. They already possessed a bevy of bullpen talent, but they deemed it prudent to gamble on one potentially spectacular, strikeout-capable pitcher. It was a sensible bet, but it didn’t pay out. Kimbrel might not even make the playoff roster.

Granted, this might be much ado about nothing. The remaining pitchers didn’t need strikeout stuff to tear through the National League in the regular season. Kershaw, one of the best pitchers ever, was exceptional in the 2020 World Series, and he is not a dramatically different pitcher than he was then. Urías’ stuff served him just fine when he finished the 2020 World Series in dominant fashion. Plus, the Dodgers’ lineup is so potent and so deep that their pitching should have more room for error than their peers’.

If the Dodgers indeed match up with the Mets in the National League Division Series, they will also benefit from a bye. While they rest, Scherzer and deGrom will be tasked with pitching in the Wild Card Series, meaning they could start only two NLDS games on full rest. The absence of the typical off day between Games 4 and 5 makes it unlikely that Díaz could pitch in all five games.

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Depth, it seems, might matter more this postseason than in recent iterations. That works in the Dodgers’ favor, as does so much else. Their offense — balancing contact and power approaches — is simply superior to everyone else’s.

This is why manager Dave Roberts guaranteed a World Series title for his team before the season began. He did issue one condition to that promise — starting-pitching health — but has said in recent weeks that the Dodgers’ rotation stayed healthy enough for his promise to remain intact.

More important than starting pitching this month, though, might be Roberts’ decisions on deploying his relievers. This, too, is a familiar, if uncomfortable, position for the Dodgers and their fans. In postseasons past, series have turned on seemingly minor choices made by club executives and/or Roberts. With the Dodgers on the cusp of tying the 2018 World Series, Roberts replaced starter Rich Hill with an inferior reliever because of a miscommunication. To close out the 2021 NLDS, the Dodgers needlessly called on Scherzer, igniting a week of negative aftereffects that might have cost them the NLCS.

Even after at least 110 wins and nearly unprecedented excellence, this year is primed for more tests of the team’s bullpen decisions. The Dodgers don’t have the sport’s most dominant pitching. Can they navigate around it in another October?

Pedro Moura is the national baseball writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the Dodgers for The Athletic, the Angels and Dodgers for the Orange County Register and L.A. Times, and his alma mater, USC, for ESPN Los Angeles. He is the author of “How to Beat a Broken Game.” Follow him on Twitter @pedromoura.