Tony Gonsolin’s return a boost for Dodgers’ rotation heading into playoffs

By Rowan Kavner
FOX Sports MLB Writer

The turning point came around the 15-day mark.  

On Aug. 29, the Dodgers placed National League Cy Young Award contender Tony Gonsolin on the injured list due to a right forearm strain. Less than three months prior, that was the same dreaded description that preceded two-time All-Star Walker Buehler‘s season-ending Tommy John surgery and flexor tendon repair.  

But the Dodgers felt confident that Gonsolin’s ailment wasn’t as dire, a belief that was affirmed first by manual tests and then by an MRI that came back, as manager Dave Roberts described it, “as good as we could have hoped.”

At the time of the injury, the Dodgers erred on the side of caution. They placed Gonsolin on the IL and planned to have him skip a start or two.  

“He’s gone so hard all year,” Roberts said at the time. “It just didn’t seem like a whole lot of cost. Hopefully kind of reset him and get him ready for the postseason.” 

It didn’t go exactly according to plan, but the team’s hope for Gonsolin to contribute in the playoffs remains intact.  

Gonsolin returned to the mound Monday for the first time since Aug. 23. He was expected to go three innings, but a lengthy second frame cut the outing short. More importantly, after missing all of September, the All-Star held his velocity, got some swing-and-misses and felt healthy while allowing one run and striking out three with no walks.  

“I noticed when I was warming up, pregame bullpen, during the stretch and all that stuff, I was pretty nervous out there,” Gonsolin said afterward. “I hadn’t felt that in a while.”

The current plan is for Gonsolin to start Game 3 or 4 of the National League Division Series. He’ll join Julio Urías, Clayton Kershaw and Tyler Anderson in the playoff rotation. Andrew Heaney, who has been a starter all year, recently shifted to a piggybacking relief role in preparation for the postseason.  

Because of Gonsolin’s lengthy absence, his first playoff start will be abbreviated. He is expected to be built up to four innings after participating in a simulated game this weekend. There was a sense of relief for Gonsolin on Monday, knowing that he returned in time to contribute to a postseason run.

“It feels good to go out there and face big-league hitters and still get some results that are good,” Gonsolin said. “There were some bad ones in there, but I kind of know what to do to make that adjustment.”

Gonsolin threw a perfect first inning Monday before running into trouble in the second, when three of the first four Rockies batters recorded hits. He finished the outing with back-to-back strikeouts on his splitter to limit the damage to a run and finish a career year with a 2.14 ERA.  

Had Gonsolin qualified, he would trail only Urías for the best ERA in the National League — a sign of the massive jump Gonsolin made from his third to his fourth major-league season. He earned the Dodgers’ fifth starting spot out of spring training this year and ran with the opportunity, becoming arguably the most reliable starter on the top pitching staff in baseball. As other aces went down with injury, Gonsolin served as the model of consistency.  

He was 11-0 with a 2.02 ERA at the break and allowed two earned runs or fewer in each of his first 16 starts of the season to secure his first All-Star nod. He also rocketed past his previous career high of 55⅔ innings pitched, throwing 130⅓ innings this season.

Opponents are hitting .137 against his slider and .130 against his curveball this season, but it’s his splitter that’s doing the most damage. Gonsolin is holding opposing batters to a .113 batting average with 60 strikeouts against the pitch, which he said was the first one to come back to him as he worked his way off injury.  

The splitter helped guide him in his return, as he threw the pitch nine times with five whiffs against the Rockies.  

Gonsolin thought he threw too many “non-competitive” pitches overall Monday, but he was pleased with his velocity (92.9 mph), which sat close to his season average (93.1 mph). He threw another inning in the bullpen after the abbreviated start to continue his buildup.  

“The main thing is we got out of it having him healthy and checked a box,” Roberts said.  

There was nothing particularly out-of-the-ordinary about Gonsolin’s last start of August. He threw 77 pitches in five innings during the appearance, but the Dodgers were obliterating the Brewers early in a 10-1 win, and Gonsolin’s velocity seemed fine. It wasn’t until his next turn in the rotation approached that Roberts realized something was wrong.  

Gonsolin’s forearm began to feel tight coming out of the Aug. 23 appearance. He said he dealt with something similar earlier in the year, but this time, the discomfort lingered. He threw his normal between-start bullpen session and still felt tight, at which point he informed pitching coach Mark Prior. 

Gonsolin thought he would be ready whenever his 15 days on the IL were up. At the time, the All-Star had already thrown more than twice as many major-league innings as in any previous season. Roberts called it “unchartered territory,” but he also didn’t see any markers or fatigue to suggest trouble ahead.  

“I think the one part of it is, yeah, you do lose a little bit of momentum of the season that you’re having,” Roberts said when the Dodgers placed Gonsolin on the IL. “But I think the most important part is we’ve got to do what we can to keep him healthy. If he’s healthy, then we’ll bet on the performance.” 

Despite the encouraging MRI results, Gonsolin didn’t progress as quickly as anyone hoped. Still, as early September gave way to mid-September, Roberts maintained his confidence that Gonsolin could return before the postseason. But that confidence dwindled with each passing day while Gonsolin dealt with residual soreness.  

“It doesn’t feel as strong as he feels it should be or it has been in the past,” Roberts said Sept. 12. “I’m kind of using my eyes in the bullpen as far as the effort he’s exerting and talking to the players.”

Around that time, things started to turn. Gonsolin went from catch play to returning to a mound to a rehab outing Sept. 27 at Triple-A Oklahoma City, where he threw two scoreless innings against the Salt Lake Bees.

Then everything went right the past couple of weeks, and now the top rotation in the majors will have one of its most significant contributors back for October, albeit in a limited capacity. Despite missing 37 games because of his forearm injury, Gonsolin ends his extraordinary 2022 season with a 16-1 record and a chance to finish his unforgettable season on a positive note.

“Looking back, it’s pretty good,” he said of his season. “I’ll take it.” 

Rowan Kavner covers the Dodgers and NL West for FOX Sports. He previously was the Dodgers’ editor of digital and print publications. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.