How sharp bettors are playing Cowboys-Rams, Michigan-Indiana, gambling nuggets

By Patrick Everson
FOX Sports Gambling Writer

There are a few intriguing matchups on the NFL Week 5 odds board. Prime-time battles between the Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens, and the Las Vegas Raiders and Kansas City Chiefs arguably lead the way.

But on both sides of the NFL betting counter, these FOX games stand out: the Dallas Cowboys at the Los Angeles Rams and the Chicago Bears at the Minnesota Vikings.

Here are insights on those two matchups and several more betting nuggets on NFL Week 5 odds and college football Week 6 odds.

No Dak, No Problem

Believe it or not, the Cowboys are 3-0 without starting quarterback Dak Prescott. Better still for bettors, Dallas has covered the spread in all three games with backup Cooper Rush under center. The Cowboys are now 3-1 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) this season.

There was hope in Jerryville that Prescott might return for Sunday’s 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff against the defending Super Bowl champion Rams (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS). But that hope was squelched Tuesday on news that Prescott will sit at least one more week.

But that’s not scaring off Cowboys backers at WynnBet, where Dallas is a 5-point underdog midweek. And it’s sharp money on Dallas, no less.

“Dak officially ruled out again this week is no surprise. However, some would say the 3-1 Cowboys are a surprise,” WynnBet trader John Manica said. “Leaning on a strong defense and adequate offense, the Cowboys have rattled off three wins in a row. The early action is heavy on the Cowboys, as we have taken two bets from respected parties, one at +6 very early and the other at +5.5.”

Manica noted that L.A. played a physical game Monday night at San Francisco, a 24-9 Rams loss, which is also impacting opinions. The matchup is also developing into a Pros vs. Joes game at WynnBet, with professional bettors on the underdog and the public on the favorite.

“The Rams on short rest and the Dallas style certainly comfort bettors taking the ‘dog here,” Manica said. “The Rams will come with an A-effort at home to avoid back-to-back losses and slipping further down the NFC West standings. The ticket count favors the Rams. We may again see a professional stance on the Cowboys, but the masses will be on the Rams.”

Money on Minny

In a 1 p.m. ET kickoff on FOX, the Bears and Vikings renew their NFC North hostilities. Chicago is 2-2 SU and 1-2-1 ATS; Minnesota is 3-1 SU but just 1-3 ATS, failing to cover the number in its last three games.

That’s not stopping one professional bettor from laying a touchdown with the Vikings.

“I’m on Minnesota -7. I like where this team is headed,” he said, “Chicago is among the top three worst teams in the NFL, and I expect Minnesota to pile it on in this game. The coach [Kevin O’Connell] and team are happy together. And a fast track warrants this play.”

That would be the indoor turf of U.S. Bank Stadium.

Backing the Bolts

That same sharp bettor is on a short favorite making a long trip this week: the Los Angeles Chargers (2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS) travel to Cleveland to meet the Browns (2-2 SU and ATS).

“I’m on Chargers -2.5. This team is getting healthier offensively, and I expect them to play well on both sides of the ball in this matchup,” he said, noting he also expects the Browns to be playing from behind, which doesn’t suit them.

Further, he’s not concerned about QB Justin Herbert & Co. on this lengthy trip.

“It’s a blessing in disguise for the Chargers to be on the road. No. 10 will look to prove he is elite,” he said.

College Football Rocks on FOX

Jumping to Saturday for a moment, FOX has a triple dip that kicks off in the Big Ten, then goes to the Pac-12 for a pair of games.

The day begins with the Big Noon Kickoff and the incomparable Gus Johnson on the call for No. 4 Michigan at Indiana. The Wolverines (5-0 SU, 3-2 ATS) covered last week as 10.5-point favorites at Iowa, winning 27-14, but haven’t covered in back-to-back games this season.

And in this contest, Michigan is a hefty 22.5-point favorite against Indiana (3-2 SU, 1-4 ATS).

Still, bettors aren’t really pulling back on the Wolverines. As of late Wednesday night at DraftKings, Michigan was taking 74% of point-spread bets and 79% of point-spread money.

At 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday on FOX, No. 11 Utah (4-1 SU and ATS) meets unbeaten and 18th-ranked UCLA (5-0 SU, 3-2 ATS). The Utes are 4-point road favorites at DraftKings after opening -3.5, dipping to -3 and spending time at -4.5 this week. Utah is getting 56% of early tickets on the spread and 71% of early money on the spread.

Finally, in a 7:30 p.m. ET Saturday start on FOX, Washington State (4-1 SU and ATS) visits No. 6 USC (5-0 SU, 3-2 ATS). The Trojans opened as 13.5-point favorites Sunday afternoon but dropped to -11 within a couple of hours. By Monday afternoon, Southern Cal rebounded to -13 and stuck there through Wednesday night.

USC is netting 60% of early point-spread tickets, but point-spread money is almost dead even, at 52% on the Trojans.

A Rare Big ‘Dog

Back to the NFL. There are many positive things you can say about the Pittsburgh Steelers based on their body of work over the past 50 years or so. How consistently good have the Steelers been? Well, according to ESPN Stats & Info researcher Mackenzie Kraemer, Pittsburgh is the only team since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger to have never been an underdog of 14 or more points.

Until now.

Pittsburgh (1-3 SU, 1-2-1 ATS) has been a steady 14-point underdog all week for Sunday’s game at Buffalo (3-1 SU, 2-1-1 ATS). The Steelers will send out rookie QB Kenny Pickett, which certainly factors into the big spread, as does the Bills’ standing as the consensus Super Bowl favorite.

Still, Pittsburgh’s run is nothing short of impressive. Every other team in the league has been a 14-point underdog at least once since 1970, and a lot of teams have been such ‘dogs several times.

“It speaks to how consistent the organization is,” said John Murray, executive director of The SuperBook. “They aren’t a franchise that is firing the coach and overhauling the front office every few years. They have a plan and they stick to it. They don’t end up with a bunch of bad contracts, and they don’t trade away their draft picks.

“They never have to launch into a full-on rebuild. They’re always at least competitive. They’re a smart organization. That’s pretty rare in sports.”

And in sports betting. We’ll see Sunday if the Steelers can prove the oddsmakers wrong with that 14-point spread.

Chief Concern

In Week 4, Kansas City put up 28 first-half points on a Tampa Bay defense that had previously been impenetrable. The Chiefs went on to a 41-31 win as 2-point road underdogs under the Sunday night lights.

This week, K.C. (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) is again in prime time on Monday night against the Raiders (1-3 SU and ATS). Bookmakers are bracing for a big decision as public bettors fall in line behind Patrick Mahomes & Co.

“The Chiefs are coming off an ultra-impressive prime-time win over the Bucs, and the Raiders [are coming] off a must-win game against Denver,” WynnBet’s Manica said. “The number opened Chiefs -6.5 and didn’t last long, as -7 came soon after. I expect this to be a lopsided decision for most books, as several operators will be Raiders fans come kickoff of Monday Night football.

“K.C. appears to be rolling on offense, and the Raiders generally struggle in this matchup, especially on the road, with their only road victory in the last decade coming in 2020. The Raiders were blown out twice last year, 90-23 combined. We have a decent liability already accumulated on K.C., mainly through smaller action, as the sharps have not revealed their opinion.”

I Like Big Bets and I Cannot Lie

With the NFL season about a month in, Caesars Sports sent along some interesting notes on Super Bowl odds and action. Per Caesars Sports’ Max Meyer, there have been 36 Super Bowl bets of at least $10,000.

Fourteen of those bets are on the favorite Bills. Tom Brady and the Bucs have six such bets, and a gaggle of teams has two apiece: Eagles, Packers, Colts, Broncos, Rams, Ravens and Chiefs. The Saints and Patriots have one apiece.

The biggest bets thus far at Caesars:

• $50,000 on Bills +450, for a potential win of $225,000
• $30,000 on Bills +600, to win $180,000
• $30,000 on Eagles +850, to win $255,000

There have also been some flier bets, including a couple perhaps tinged with regional bias and that have little chance of paying out:

• $5,000 on the Jets at 200/1, for a potential $1 million win, from a New York customer
• $5,000 on the Lions at 150/1, to win $750,000, from a Michigan customer

May your weekend wagers stand a better chance of cashing than those two tickets.

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He previously worked for Covers and is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.