NFL odds Week 5: Warren Sharp’s betting edges on Eagles-Cardinals, Cowboys-Rams

By Warren Sharp
FOX Sports NFL Writer

The Week 5 slate features some great matchups, including the Eagles–Cardinals and Cowboys–Rams games on FOX.

I ran my models to give you my favorite betting edges and predictions for Week 5 of the season. My goal for this weekly column is always to provide tidbits you didn’t know before reading. 

So, let’s dive into my favorite edges of the week, with odds courtesy of FOX Bet.

Dolphins @ Jets  (1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)

It will be a welcome relief for the Jets to be finished with the AFC North. The Jets played their first four games against the brutal AFC North, and the last two games came vs. the Bengals and Steelers, both top-10 defenses.

Now, the Jets get to face the No. 5 worst defense in the NFL, the Dolphins.

Miami is allowing the second most yards per pass play this year.

And they have been the worst pass defense in the NFL against play action.  

When QBs use play action, they are recording +0.65 EPA/att, which is No. 1 most in the NFL and well above the NFL average of +0.12 EPA/att.

When teams aren’t using play action against the Dolphins, their passing attempts average +0.05 EPA/att. 

So it has made a huge difference for QBs when facing the Dolphins.

In his game vs. the Steelers, Wilson had massive splits with and without play action on early down passes:

With play action: 

+0.09 EPA/att, 50% success, 8.0 YPA

Without play action: 

-0.23 EPA/att, 19% success, 5.1 YPA

If the Jets have improved Wilson’s usage of play action, and this isn’t the case of a small sample size, it will be massive for them this season.

That’s because Wilson was one of the NFL’s worst QBs with play-action passes last season.

Look at his splits in 2021:

With play action: 

-0.31 EPA/att, 32% success, 5.8 YPA

Without play action: 

-0.10 EPA/att, 37% success, 6.2 YPA

It could end up working out nicely for Wilson to use play action if the line can hold up long enough in protection.

For the Dolphins, I cannot imagine a team that needed 10 days off from a game more than the Dolphins. 

From the game against the Bills in brutal heat to the short turnaround on the road and losing your starting QB to a bad concussion, followed by all of the media blitz and criticism, it’s been a rough patch. Which is why it was a perfect time to have extra days away from the facility to rest up and prepare for this game.

Say what you want about Teddy Bridgewater’s performance after being inserted for Tua last Thursday, but I think he’ll look MUCH better here against the Jets pass defense.

What’s been amazing about Tua and this Dolphins offense is they rank No. 2 in total efficiency, including No. 2 in pass efficiency, despite playing the No. 1 toughest schedule of pass defenses.

They’ve played nothing but three top-10 pass defenses, and the No. 14 thrown in for good measure.

Now, they finally get to go against the No. 4 worst pass defense of the Jets. This will be the very worst pass defense the Dolphins will face all season.

I fully expect Teddy Bridgewater will look fine in this situation, given the players around him, his coaching and the amount of time he’s had to prep. He won’t outperform Tua, but against this defense, he should be satisfactory.  

Keep in mind that last year, when quarterbacking Vic Fangio’s Broncos, Teddy Bridgewater faced this very same Jets defense and went 19-of-25 for 235 yards (9.4 YPA), +0.37 EPA/att and 48% success while putting up 26 points. That was a far less creative, talented and well-coached offense than what he is in now with the Dolphins.

I’d look at the Over in this game.

Eagles @ Cardinals (4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX)

Jalen Hurts has one of the highest average time-to-throw numbers in the league. He averages 2.97 seconds per attempt, which is the fifth highest in the NFL.  

However, there is a uniqueness to his game that differs from most QBs that also have high time-to-throw.

Leaders in time-to-throw include Justin Fields, Daniel Jones, Marcus Mariota, Lamar Jackson and Jacoby Brissett.

Most of these QBs also have a well below-average rate of passes thrown in under 2 seconds and passes thrown in under 2.5 seconds. But Hurts does not.  

57% of his overall attempts are thrown in under 2.5 seconds.

That ranks 12th highest. 

Those other QBs are down in the 30% to low-40% range for percentage of attempts thrown in under 2.5 seconds.

Hurts throws timely on most of his attempts, but some of his attempts simply take forever to be released as he’s scrambling and creating, either due to pressure or to work deeper down the field as he buys time.

When Hurts throws in less than 2.5 seconds, only 4% of his attempts are off-target (second best in the NFL) and 10.5% of his attempts gain 20-plus yards (fourth best in the NFL).

The problem for the Cardinals defense is they’ve been better when QBs get rid of the ball quickly.

If QBs throw the ball in less than 2.5 seconds, this pass defense allows +0.13 EPA/att (No. 21) and 6.7 YPA (No. 22).

But if QBs throw the ball 3-plus seconds into their dropback or longer, the Cardinals are the NFL’s worst defense by a mile.

They allow +0.70 EPA/att (No. 32). The No. 31 team is +0.42, and the league average is +0.05.

And they allow 11.9 YPA, which also ranks No. 32.

To be fair, Arizona has played Patrick Mahomes, Derek Carr, Matthew Stafford and Baker Mayfield, so it’s not as if they’re allowing insane yardage to terrible QBs (Mayfield aside and current form Stafford noted).  

But, notably, they are significantly worse when a QB can extend a dropback as their coverage in the secondary breaks down.  

The Eagles are facing the NFL’s No. 5 worst pass defense in the Arizona Cardinals. Arizona’s defense as a whole ranks No. 31 in early down success.

While the Eagles offense has been highly adaptable to different environments, the Cardinals offense can’t even thrive in the most benign setting.

This passing attack ranks No. 25 despite playing the third-easiest schedule of pass defenses.  

They rely almost entirely on the pass, being the No. 5 most pass-heavy offense, but cannot execute consistently.  

And they haven’t even played a pass defense so far this season which ranks even league average at 16-17. Let alone having to face the Eagles No. 2 ranked passing offense, which will occur on Sunday.

Arizona Cardinals third down conversion rate is abysmal in 2022. I discussed this a lot this summer and how absurd it was in 2021.  

It was the No. 1 third down conversion rate above expectation, given their average distance to go on third down.

I predicted regression, and it’s hit hard.

Kliff Kingsbury’s offense has the NFL’s No. 32 third-down conversion rate over expectation this year.

And that’s despite playing the No. 22 most challenging schedule of third down defenses.

In the first half of games, it’s even worse.

The Cardinals are facing an average to-go distance of 7.6 yards, which ranks league average.

But they are converting just 22% of third downs, which ranks No. 31 in the NFL.

This is a huge reason why the Cardinals first-half drives average:

No. 3 most punts per drive (55%)

No. 3 fewest scoring drives (18%)

No. 1 fewest points per drive (0.73)

But what is also wild is even when the Cardinals do make it down into the red zone, they’re scoring touchdowns on just 25% of their first-half red zone drives, which ranks third worst in the NFL.

Arizona is still the only team in the NFL without any points scored in the first quarter this season. 

At one point, the Cardinals were incredible at home. From 2013-2017, they covered at a 54% rate at home, which was 10th best in the NFL.

But under Kliff Kingsbury since 2019, the Cardinals are 9-17 ATS (35%) at home, the No. 2 worst in the NFL.

And since 2021, they rank dead last at a 20% cover rate in Arizona.

I think the Eagles can jump out early.

PICK: Eagles -3 first half

Cowboys @ Rams (4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX)

Last week the Rams absolutely could not run the ball on one of the best run defenses in the NFL of the 49ers. On early downs, RB-runs recorded -0.39 EPA/att, which was the second worst in the NFL last week.

But this is deeper than just one game.

The Rams have the NFL’s third worse early down offense.  

Last week the Cowboys defense held the Washington Commanders to just 3.3 YPA on early downs. 

That’s not YPC, that’s YPA. In fact, the numbers look like they should be reversed, as RBs averaged 5.5 YPC on early-down runs. Washington was able to get the ground game going, which kept the game close. But they couldn’t do anything via the air.

This is a theme for the Cowboys defense on the season, however.

Dallas is No. 5 vs. the pass and No. 25 against the run.

Dallas ranks No. 1 vs. explosive passing and No. 32 against explosive rushing.  

And what makes these run defense numbers so concerning is the fact they’ve played the fifth easiest schedule of run offenses.  

The Commanders, Bengals and Bucs rushing offenses all rank No. 27, 28 and 29 in rush efficiency.

Yet Dallas has a terrible run defense.

This is where the Rams must capitalize.

Behind this offensive line, Matthew Stafford will be a wounded antelope for a pride of lions if McVay calls too many early down passes.

Their one chance is to slow down the pass rush with a higher-than-average rate of runs.  

Dallas has allowed a touchdown on 9% (4-of-44) of opponent possessions, second best in the league.

I think the Cowboys and Cooper Rush have pulled the wool over everyone’s eyes.

They trailed the Giants in Week 3 13-6 in the late third quarter. They had back-to-back elongated TD drives to close the third and start the fourth quarter against a bottom-10 Giants defense to take the lead and make the final score look lopsided.

Week 4, they were up only 15-10 in the fourth quarter over Washington and had to outscore Washington 10-0 in the fourth quarter to make the final score look lopsided.

The Rams run defense ranks No. 3 in the NFL and should limit the Cowboys rushing attack and force more onto Rush’s plate.  

63% of the Dallas scoring plays have been field goals, the highest rate in the league. League average is 42%.

I see enough edges for both teams’ defenses to support leaning toward the Under.

Titans @ Commanders (1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)

The only positive thing you can really say about the Washington Commanders through four weeks is they’ve played a brutal schedule, and it can’t get much worse.  

Washington has played three top-6 teams so far this season. The Jaguars are playing tremendously on both sides of the ball, the Eagles have the best metrics in the NFL and the Cowboys are playing well over their head through four weeks.

Now, Washington will be going up a Titans defense which has several areas they should be able to exploit. Assuming Carson Wentz doesn’t cost the team another game, which is entirely possible.

The Titans are the No. 1 most sensitive team to play action in the NFL. And Washington uses play action at a well above-average rate.

Look at Tennessee’s splits for play action on early downs in the game’s first three quarters:

Vs. play action: 

+0.66 EPA/att (No.32)

Without play action: 

-0.23 EPA/att (No. 9)

Washington uses play action at the NFL’s No. 1 highest rate on early downs in the first three quarters.

So on paper, this is a great matchup for Washington.

However, nearly 50% of the Commander’s play action attempts are thrown behind the line of scrimmage.

I haven’t been overly impressed by the Titans on the season. But they are one of the best offenses out of the box on the season.

The Titans have scored on 12-of-19 drives (63.2%) in the first half this season, the highest rate in the league, but they have scored on just one of their 23 possessions in the second half this season, the lowest rate in the league.

Tennessee has scored a touchdown on every single opening drive of the season, the only team to hit that mark.  

They are averaging 4 points per drive on their first four drives, which is the highest mark in the NFL. 

Their 50% TD rate on their first four drives also ranks No. 1 in the NFL.

The Titans may have some success scripting some explosive passes into their early offense this week against Washington.

Washington has the No. 30 defense vs. explosive passes, while the Titans have the NFL’s No. 2 most explosive passing attack.  

Washington has allowed an average of 15.3 first-half points, including allowing just three to the Jaguars in Week 1.  

While I have no opinion on the side and think the Commanders may put up a fight, I think the Titans offense does enough early to exceed their first-half team total of between 10 and 10.5 points.

PICK: Titans Over 10.5 team total in first half

Warren Sharp is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He is the founder of Sharp Football Analysis and has worked as a consultant for league franchises while also previously contributing to ESPN and The Ringer, among other outlets. He studied engineering before using his statistical acumen to create predictive football models. You can follow Warren on Twitter at @SharpFootball.

---

---

---