NFL odds Week 5: How to bet Eagles-Cardinals, pick
The Philadelphia Eagles look to start the season 5-0 for the first time since 2004 while the Arizona Cardinals look to score in the first quarter for the first time this season as the longtime NFL franchises meet Sunday in the desert.
The Cardinals, the lone team to not score in the first quarter this season, lead the all-time series 60-56-5 after winning six of the past eight games. The series started in 1935 when the Cardinals were in Chicago.
Here’s everything you need from a betting perspective on the Eagles-Cardinals game, from the point spread, moneyline, total over/under and expert pick (odds via FOX Bet):
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Eagles @ Cardinals (4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX)
Point spread: Eagles -5.5 (Eagles favored to win by more than 5.5 points, otherwise Cardinals cover)
Moneyline: Eagles -278 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $13.60 total); Cardinals +205 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $30.50 total)
Total scoring over/under: 49.5 points scored by both teams combined
The Eagles are 1-6-1 against the spread (ATS) in their past eight games against the Cardinals.
The Eagles are 4-1 straight up (SU) in their past five road games.
The Eagles have hit the Under in the Over/Under (O/U) in five of their past seven games against NFC West Division teams.
The Cardinals are 5-0 ATS in their past five home games against the Eagles.
The Cardinals are 3-7 ATS in their past 10 games
The Cardinals have hit the Under in the O/U in six of their past nine games.
Pick via FOX Sports Betting Analyst Warren Sharp:
Jalen Hurts has one of the highest average time-to-throw numbers in the league. He averages 2.97 seconds per attempt, which is fifth highest in the NFL.
However, there is a uniqueness to his game that differs from most QBs that also have high time-to-throw.
Leaders in time-to-throw include Justin Fields, Daniel Jones, Marcus Mariota, Lamar Jackson and Jacoby Brissett.
Most of these QBs also have a well below-average rate of passes thrown in under 2 seconds and passes thrown in under 2.5 seconds. But Hurts does not.
57% of his overall attempts are thrown in under 2.5 seconds.
That ranks 12th highest.
Those other QBs are down in the 30% to low-40% range for percentage of attempts thrown in under 2.5 seconds.
Hurts throws timely on most of his attempts, but some of his attempts simply take forever to be released as he’s scrambling and creating, either due to pressure or to work deeper down the field as he buys time.
When Hurts throws in less than 2.5 seconds, only 4% of his attempts are off-target (second best in the NFL) and 10.5% of his attempts gain 20-plus yards (fourth best in the NFL).
The problem for the Cardinals defense is they’ve been better when QBs get rid of the ball quickly.
If QBs throw the ball in less than 2.5 seconds, this pass defense allows +0.13 EPA/att (No. 21) and 6.7 YPA (No. 22).
But if QBs throw the ball 3-plus seconds into their dropback or longer, the Cardinals are the NFL’s worst defense by a mile.
They allow +0.70 EPA/att (No. 32). The No. 31 team is +0.42, and the league average is +0.05.
And they allow 11.9 YPA, which also ranks No. 32.
To be fair, Arizona has played Patrick Mahomes, Derek Carr, Matthew Stafford and Baker Mayfield, so it’s not as if they’re allowing insane yardage to terrible QBs (Mayfield aside and current form Stafford noted).
But, notably, they are significantly worse when a QB can extend a dropback as their coverage in the secondary breaks down.
The Eagles are facing the NFL’s No. 5 worst pass defense in the Arizona Cardinals. Arizona’s defense as a whole ranks No. 31 in early down success.
While the Eagles offense has been highly adaptable to different environments, the Cardinals offense can’t even thrive in the most benign setting.
This passing attack ranks No. 25 despite playing the third-easiest schedule of pass defenses.
They rely almost entirely on the pass, being the No. 5 most pass-heavy offense, but cannot execute consistently.
And they haven’t even played a pass defense so far this season which ranks even league average at 16-17. Let alone having to face the Eagles No. 2 ranked passing offense, which will occur on Sunday.
Arizona Cardinals third down conversion rate is abysmal in 2022. I discussed this a lot this summer and how absurd it was in 2021.
It was the No. 1 third down conversion rate above expectation, given their average distance to go on third down.
I predicted regression, and it’s hit hard.
Kliff Kingsbury’s offense has the NFL’s No. 32 third-down conversion rate over expectation this year.
And that’s despite playing the No. 22 most challenging schedule of third down defenses.
In the first half of games, it’s even worse.
The Cardinals are facing an average to-go distance of 7.6 yards, which ranks league average.
But they are converting just 22% of third downs, which ranks No. 31 in the NFL.
This is a huge reason why the Cardinals first-half drives average:
No. 3 most punts per drive (55%)
No. 3 fewest scoring drives (18%)
No. 1 fewest points per drive (0.73)
But what is also wild is even when the Cardinals do make it down into the red zone, they’re scoring touchdowns on just 25% of their first-half red zone drives, which ranks third worst in the NFL.
Arizona is still the only team in the NFL without any points scored in the first quarter this season.
At one point, the Cardinals were incredible at home. From 2013-2017, they covered at a 54% rate at home, which was 10th best in the NFL.
But under Kliff Kingsbury since 2019, the Cardinals are 9-17 ATS (35%) at home, the No. 2 worst in the NFL.
And since 2021, they rank dead last at a 20% cover rate in Arizona.
I think the Eagles can jump out early.
PICK: Eagles -3 first half
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