MLB playoff odds: Best Game 1 bets for the division round

By Edward Egros
FOX Sports MLB Betting Analyst

We’re on to the MLB division series round as we’re down to the final eight teams and from a betting perspective, I have you covered.

I will guide you through these playoffs by giving you daily study materials. That homework consists of previewing each game with some bets I like for the daily slate. 

That is the school bell, which can only mean one thing: 

Class is back in session!

Here is my favorite bet for Tuesday’s opening games, with odds via FOX Bet (all times ET). 

Philadelphia Phillies (Ranger Suárez) vs. Atlanta Braves (Max Fried), 1:07 p.m. (FOX)

Sept. 22 turned out to be a preview of this matchup. Ranger Suárez went six innings allowing no earned runs with four strikeouts, Max Fried pitched five innings with one earned run and eight strikeouts.

Atlanta had many more groundouts and line-drive outs because they had trouble handling Suarez’s sinkers, changeups and cutters. 

For Phillies’ batters, it was actually the middle of the order that did the only damage, with J.T. Realmuto and Matt Vierling pouncing on curveballs that stayed too high in the zone.

In fact, the Phillies rank seventh in ability to his curveballs, an important pitch for Fried. It should be another tough day for hitters on both sides, so I’d rather play it safe and my lean is on the Braves on the moneyline.

PICK: Braves moneyline (-200 at FOX Bet, bet $10 to win $15 total) to win Game 1

Seattle Mariners (Logan Gilbert) vs. Houston Astros (Justin Verlander), 3:37 p.m. (TBS)

Congratulations to the Seattle Mariners for making their first postseason run in more than two decades last a little longer! Your first reward is facing this year’s likely American League Cy Young winner in Justin Verlander!

The concerns anyone may have with a 39-year-old pitcher coming off Tommy John surgery is how long they can last during a 162-game season and three-week postseason. Add to that a calf injury in August and the concerns may have become worries. 

In four starts since returning from his break, Verlander has averaged more than a dozen strikeouts per nine innings, issued just three walks and finished with an ERA of 1.17.

There’s a reason why the Astros are the heaviest favorites to win their series (-227 on FOX Bet, bet $10 to win $14.41 total) so I really like laying the runs with Houston.

PICK: Astros (-1.5 runs at FOX Bet) to win Game 1 by more than 1.5 runs 

Cleveland Guardians (Cal Quantrill) vs. New York Yankees (Gerrit Cole), 7:37 p.m. (TBS)

My model likes the Yankees to win the World Series more than most other projections because of their hitting. 

Expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) is not only a long phrase that, when said out loud, is sure to ruin any party. But it’s also a great statistic that uses exit velocity and launch angle to determine how much offense a hitter “should” produce.

Aaron Judge is predictably the league leader, but the Bronx Bombers have a combined five sluggers who crack the top 80. Add to that potentially getting Matt Carpenter back (broken foot), who can still do damage against four-seam fastballs, and the Yankees have taken one step forward to recreating Murderers’ Row. 

New York also has the luxury of utilizing Gerrit Cole with a fastball velocity in the 93rd percentile and a whiff rate in the 92nd percentile. Lay the runs with the Yankees.

PICK: Yankees (-1.5 runs at FOX Bet) to win Game 1 by more than 1.5 runs 

San Diego Padres (Mike Clevinger) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (TBD), 9:37 p.m. (FS1)

How different are things in San Diego after making the biggest splash at the trade deadline? After acquiring Juan Soto, Josh Bell and others, the Padres rank 10th in wRC+ (an offensive metric showing how well hitters create runs) and 16th in expected fielding independent pitching (a statistic that isolates the pitcher’s responsibility).

While the Mets were better in both areas, it didn’t matter in a three-game series played in New York. Because the Padres were the only ballclub to need a rubber match to win their wild-card series, it may take them a while to regroup when facing the Dodgers, who owned the regular-season series (15-4, outscoring Padres 109-47). 

Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts and company seemed to handle any opposing pitching well, no matter what they were trying to accomplish. 

Still, Soto and others may be enjoying some positive regression after a mediocre stretch in August. I’m leaning the Dodgers moneyline.

PICK: Dodgers moneyline (-227 at FOX Bet, bet $10 to win $14.41 total) to win Game 1 

Edward Egros is a sports analytics broadcaster/writer, a sports betting analyst, a data scientist and an adjunct professor of statistics at Pepperdine University. These passions have led him to become a cold brew aficionado. Edward previously worked in local television, notably at the Fox affiliate in Dallas covering the Rangers, Cowboys and high school football.  Follow him on Twitter @EdWithSports. 

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