NFL odds Week 10: Back the Eagles and 49ers, fade the Bills and more

Now that the NFL is officially in the second half of the season, it’s about to get serious.

As we plow through the season’s third quarter, here’s another shout out to my New York Jets for besting the Buffalo Bills in a hard-fought victory. I would have them on my slate this week, but alas, they find themselves with a bye week.

No worries, though, as I have you covered with my best bets for Week 10 (with odds via FOX Bet).

Let’s dive in!

Time for Packers to bench Aaron Rodgers for Jordan Love?

Colin Cowherd explains why it is time to play Love and figure out how he plays.

Chargers at 49ers (8:20 p.m. ET Sunday, NBC)

On the surface, if you are getting a touchdown with a great QB like Justin Herbert, you have to take it. But tread cautiously.

Amazingly, the Chargers have trailed by 10 points or more at the end of the first quarter in four straight games. That’s a coach who struggles in preparation and needs his QB always to bail him out. That’s a tall order against an increasingly healthy 49ers team coming off the bye.

Also, Herbert may once again be down his top two receivers in Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. Austin Ekeler can get them the win against Atlanta, but good luck finding room to operate against this 49ers team.

PICK: 49ers (-7 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 7 points

Are 8-0 Eagles a legitimate Super Bowl contender?

Colin Cowherd breaks down why he is not convinced with Philly as a Super Bowl contender.

Commanders at Eagles (8:15 p.m. ET Monday, ESPN)

The undefeated Eagles have yet to trail in the second half this season and probably won’t again in this one. The earlier meeting was very one-sided, as the Eagles scored 24 points in the second quarter and cruised to a 24-8 win.

But that was with Carson Wentz under center; now they’ll face Taylor Heinicke. Washington’s defense may be bolstered by the return of Chase Young to one of the most underrated defensive fronts in the NFL.

The Eagles at home on Monday Night Football and a double-digit spread, what could go wrong? While double-digit favorites are 10-20 against the spread this season, Philly is too much to handle for Washington.

Look for Hurts & Co. to put it on early and often and pull away late in the fourth quarter.

PICK: Eagles (-10.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 10.5 points

Herd Hierarchy: Bills drop, Bengals climb up in Colin’s Top 10 of Week 10

Colin Cowherd reveals his Top 10 teams heading into Week 10.

Vikings at Bills (1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX and FOX Sports App)

Fascinating matchup of the 7-1 Vikings – who are an NFL-best 6-0 in one-score games – and the Bills, who are reeling from a loss to the Jets as 11.5-point favorites.

This line was -9.5 for the Bills before the loss to New York and the injury to Josh Allen’s throwing elbow. The line has since dipped down significantly.

Buffalo struggled offensively last week, and Allen has thrown four interceptions in the last five quarters. He was battered against the Jets, who sacked him five times despite only blitzing twice. Buffalo’s interior offensive line has struggled, which means Za’Darius Smith, who is having a monster year (tied for second in the NFL in sacks, tied for first in tackles for loss) could wreak havoc in the backfield.

I don’t have much faith in this Minnesota offense outdoors (see Philly, Miami or Washington), but the Bills have trouble closing out good teams because of their inability to run.

If the Vikings can protect Cousins against the relentless Bills pass rush, it will be because of offensive tackle Christian Darrisaw, who has not allowed a sack in 328 pass-blocking snaps.

At +5.5, you might not be getting the best number here, but it’s worth the risk if Allen is out.

PICK: Vikings (+5.5 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 5.5 points (or win outright)

Lions at Bears (1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX and FOX Sports App)

The Bears seem to have found their offensive rhythm, scoring 29+ points in each of the last three games. They’ve only won one (Patriots), but the formula that could lead to more wins is: Justin Fields scramble, run, Fields designed run. The Bears have rushed for over 200 yards in four straight games, and there’s no reason to think the Lions will put up much resistance on the road.

But this is a different position for the Bears. They’re now favored, and the money is coming in on them. I really like the Bears at -2.5, but not as much at -3.

However, the temperatures are expected to be in the 30s Sunday, and under no circumstance can I back Jared Goff outdoors in cold weather. In his career – which included no cold weather games last year – he has zero touchdowns, five interceptions and a 47% completion rate when the temperature is under 30 degrees.

This will be a close one, but look for the Bears to pull away late, thanks to some Goff turnovers.

PICK: Bears (-2.5 at FOX Bet at time of pick) to win by more than 2.5 points

Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on every show on the network. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. He had a gambling podcast for FOX, “Coming Up Winners,” in 2018 and 2019. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010.

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