NFL odds Week 10: How to bet Browns-Dolphins, pick

The Cleveland Browns head to Florida to square off against the Miami Dolphins in Week 10.

The Browns are coming off a bye week, while the Dolphins defeated the Chicago Bears, 35-32, in their Week 9 matchup.

Here’s everything you need from a betting perspective on the Browns-Dolphins game, from the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and expert pick (odds via FOX Bet):

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Browns at Dolphins (1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)

Point spread: Dolphins -4 (Dolphins favored to win by more than 4 points, otherwise Browns cover)
Moneyline: Dolphins -213 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $14.69 total); Browns +160 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $26 total)
Total scoring Over/Under: 48.5 points scored by both teams combined

Cleveland Browns

CLE

Miami Dolphins

MIA

Pick via FOX Sports Betting Expert Warren Sharp:

After a start to the season which saw them put up at least 26 points in four of their first five games and average 27 PPG (sixth-highest scoring team), the Browns put up just 15 vs. the Patriots fifth-ranked defense and 20 vs. the Ravens 15th-ranked defense.

Their cold streak was broken, scoring 32 vs. the familiar defense of the divisional rival Bengals in Week 8, prior to their bye.

The downturn in production was predictable, given the injuries and the fact that the team played four below-average defenses in their first five games.

But after playing defenses ranking:

5th New England
8th Cincinnati
15th Baltimore

The last three weeks, the Browns get to face No. 27 Miami this week.

One of the biggest problems with this Dolphins defense of late has been their inability to get pressure. So they blitz. More and more.

Weeks 1-4, they blitzed at a 32% rate and got pressure at a 33% rate. Both ranked slightly above average.

But from Week 5 onward, the pressure hasn’t been there. They’ve dropped to a below-average 29% pressure rate. And to try and increase pressure, they’re now blitzing at a 40% rate, which is third-most in the NFL.

And getting pressure on these blitzes is going to be massive for Miami because look at their splits on early-down blitzes this year:

When getting pressure: -0.34 EPA/att (18th)
When not getting pressure: +0.20 EPA/att (30th)

And for Brissett, look at his splits when he’s blitzed:

Blitz led to pressure: -0.56 EPA/att, 32% success, 6.9 YPA (34 att)
Blitz didn’t get pressure: +0.40 EPA/att, 55% success, 8.9 YPA (44 att)

The splits have grown even more massive. Since Week 6 when he’s blitzed:

Blitz led to pressure: -1.45 EPA/att, 20% success, 5.2 YPA (15 att)
Blitz didn’t get pressure: +0.94 EPA/att, 60% success, 13.5 YPA (15 att)

If Miami blitzes a lot and doesn’t get pressure, which is what is happening more to them lately than any other team in the NFL (86 such dropbacks this year, highest in the NFL), it’s going to be a problem against Brissett.

The Dolphins also rarely use 2-high safety looks. No team plays it less than Miami.

Well, that’s a very good thing for Jacoby Brissett. Because he has big splits vs. 2-high, and in fact, since Week 3, he’s the most sensitive QB to 2-high.

First, look at his season-long splits:

2-high: -0.11 EPA/att, 39% success, 6.8 YPA on 75 dropbacks
Single-high: +0.17 EPA/att, 52% success, 8.1 YPA on 196 dropbacks

And since Week 7:

2-high: -0.13 EPA/att, 29% success, 7.4 YPA on 14 dropbacks
Single-high: +0.46 EPA/att, 59% success, 12.6 YPA on 41 dropbacks

We should expect a decrease in rush efficiency from Nick Chubb, like we saw vs. the Bengals solid run defense, as Miami has been extremely solid vs. the run. But even vs. the seventh-best run defense of the Bengals, Chubb, despite gaining only 4.4 YPC, still topped 100 yards and put up two rushing TDs.

The difference between the Bengals and the Dolphins is the Dolphins rank sixth in yards before contact to opposing running backs, whereas the Bengals were 17th.

While the Browns rushing attack may see a decrease in efficiency, I think the passing attack may more than compensate thanks to Brissett’s stats vs. single-high safeties and ability to deliver when blitzed but not pressured.

Additionally, the Browns like to throw the ball to their RBs, and the Dolphins defense ranks dead last in EPA/att allowed to opposing RB targets (+0.27/att) and allow a league-high 7.1 YPA.

Betting suggestion: Cleveland Browns team total Over 23 points

PICK: Over 23 points Cleveland Browns team total

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