College football odds Week 13: Notre Dame-USC Over, other early best bets

Here we are, folks. We finally made it to the last week of the college football regular season.

After 13 weeks of ball, I’m still excited to see which teams get out there and give it their all.

So for the final time for this regular season, let’s dive into my early best bets (all odds via FOX Bet).

No. 18 Notre Dame at No. 7 USC (7:30 p.m. ET Saturday, ABC)

I’m 36 years old. I’ve watched football since I was five and have been playing competitively at a high level since I showed up at Oregon a month after my 18th birthday. I retired from football in 2016, and since then, I still consume the sport as a fan and watch college and NFL game film.

I have never seen a team like USC.

The Trojans are two wins away from a playoff appearance with an offense that ranks second in points per drive and a defense that’s 104th in limiting points per offensive drive. USC’s defensive line is seventh in havoc rate and has forced 24 turnovers this season — that’s good for a team turnover margin rate of plus 21! It’s nearly impossible to have a defensive line that good with a defense who can force that many turnovers and still be 104th in defensive points per drive. SC has won two games by three points each on the road against ranked teams while forcing four turnovers in each game. There’s no way to explain this success.

Every fiber in my body continues to want to fade USC, but that has been bad business. The Trojans continue to win and cover, just as they did Saturday night. So the better play is the Over on Saturday when they host the Irish.

Notre Dame’s offense is hit or miss, but against SC, every offense is a hit. Utah scored 43, Arizona 41, Cal’s 95th-ranked offense scored 35 and UCLA — despite four turnovers on Saturday — still scored 45 points. USC has not played a defense like Notre Dame’s in quite a while, but I’m not sure that it matters if Notre Dame is good on defense or not.

USC will score. The Trojans always end up scoring. But is Notre Dame fast enough on defense to keep up? So points will be scored on Saturday. Take the points.

PICK: Over 62 points scored by both teams combined at FOX Bet

No. 12 Oregon at No. 23 Oregon State (3:30 p.m. ET Saturday, ABC)

The game formerly known as the Civil War is going to be a low-scoring affair, and that’s an uncommon occurrence in this matchup.

Oregon State’s defense is legit, and the Beavers deserve more national respect. They rank 30th in points per drive and 21st in passing success rate. They struggle stopping the run, but that hasn’t hurt them much this season. They just don’t allow points.

Oregon’s offense is outstanding, but quarterback Bo Nix is hurting. He gutted through the Ducks win on Saturday, scoring just enough to beat Utah. Without Nix being full speed, the Ducks’ offense is just less explosive and Oregon State’s defense will be able to slow them down.

On the flip side, Oregon State’s offense is run-based; it focuses on gaining yards via the ground. They use play action pass, screens and other “easier” options to move the ball through the air. Oregon’s defense is built to stop this offense, as we just saw against Utah. I’d even make the case that the Beavers’ offense is just Utah-light but with a worse quarterback.

I feel confident Oregon can slow down the Beavers. With both teams trying to run the ball, this clock will run. I will take the Under.

PICK: Under 57 points scored by both teams combined at FOX Bet

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