World Cup Group Scenarios: What does each team need to advance?
AL KHOR, Qatar — We are edging closer to the end of the group stage, which wraps Tuesday. So which teams are in position to advance, and what needs to happen for them to get there?
Here are the group-by-group scenarios for each team in the tournament.
The Netherlands qualifies with a win or a tie against Qatar.
Ecuador qualifies with a win or a tie against Senegal.
Senegal qualifies with a win against Ecuador and is eliminated with any other result.
Qatar cannot advance after two defeats.
England qualifies with a win or a tie against Wales and could potentially survive even with a loss, thanks to its strong goal differential of +4.
Iran qualifies with a win against the United States and is eliminated with a defeat. Iran qualifies with a tie, unless Wales beats England, and Iran finishes behind both those countries on goal differential.
The USA qualifies with a win. Any other result, it is eliminated.
Wales must beat England to stand any chance of qualifying, and even then would be dependent on the other result in the group and a goal differential tiebreaker.
Saudi Arabia qualifies with a win against Poland. Argentina is out with a loss against Mexico.
A Mexico loss would leave it either last or joint last on points going into the final game. A Mexico win would put it top or joint top of the group on points going into the final game, unless Saudi Arabia wins.
Poland would be either top of the group with a win, or tied on points at the top. It’s worst outcome would be a loss, combined with a Mexico win.
France qualifies with a win against Denmark. Australia is out with a loss against Tunisia.
A Tunisia loss would leave it either last or joint last on points going into the final game. A Tunisia win would put it top or joint top of the group on points going into the final game, unless France wins.
Denmark would be either top of the group with a win, or tied on points at the top. It’s worst outcome would be a loss, combined with a Tunisia win.
Spain qualifies with a win against Germany if Japan wins or ties Costa Rica. Realistically, with already a huge positive goal difference, Spain is likely to qualify with a win regardless of other results. Japan qualifies with a win and a Spain win or tie against Geramny.
Germany is out with a loss, unless Costa Rica beats Japan. A tie for Germany would leave its fate out of its own control.
Costa Rica realistically needs to win its remaining two games to have a chance, with a -7 goal differential.
Belgium qualifies with a win against Morocco. Canada is out with a loss against Croatia.
A Croatia loss would leave it either last or joint last on points going into the final game. A Croatia win would put it top or joint top of the group on points going into the final game, unless Belgium wins.
Morocco would be either top of the group with a win, or tied on points at the top. Its worst outcome would be a loss, combined with a Croatia win.
Brazil qualifies with a win against Switzerland if Serbia wins or ties Cameroon. Switzerland qualifies with a win against Brazil if Cameroon wins or ties Serbia.
Serbia is out with a loss unless Brazil wins. Cameroon is out with a loss unless Switzerland wins.
Portugal qualifies with a win against Uruguay. Ghana is out with a loss against South Korea.
A South Korea loss would leave it either last or joint last on points going into the final game. A South Korea win would put it top or joint top of the group on points going into the final game, unless Belgium wins.
Uruguay would be either top of the group with a win, or tied on points at the top. Its worst outcome would be a loss, combined with a South Korea win.
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Martin Rogers is a columnist for FOX Sports and the author of the FOX Sports Insider newsletter. Follow him on Twitter @MRogersFOX and subscribe to the daily newsletter.
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