Three Cuts: Austin Riley raises Braves’ ceiling, belongs in starting lineup

Austin Riley requires no further introduction.

The 22-year-old prospect arrived in Atlanta as perhaps minor-league baseball’s hottest hitter — slugging 13 home runs in 18 games before getting his call to The Show — and, despite learning a new position on the fly and battling the nerves that inevitably come with playing at the highest level for the first time, he didn’t slow down.

Riley became the first Atlanta player to collect at least eight hits in his first four games. After going hitless in his first start at third base on Sunday, he’s now hitting 121 percent above league average after smacking two homers and coming up an inch shy of a third. He’s flashed the 70-grade raw power and an advanced approach. As Braves catcher Brian McCann put it, “He’s the real deal.”

Or Freddie Freeman: “It’s special what he’s doing.”

Or if Riley’s teammates are too close to the action and only going off recent information, here’s a Hall of Fame third baseman who has worked with the former 41st overall draft pick throughout his minor-league climb.

“The swing was always going to be there. He’s always had light-tower power,” Chipper Jones said this week. “I’ve used Bob Horner as far as a Braves comp, but I think Troy Glaus. His ceiling is 40 homers. I think he’ll hit 40 homers in the big leagues at some point. I think he’ll be a better defender than Troy Glaus. … I think (Riley) is going to be a little bit more of a complete hitter. I think 40 homers and a respectable third base is where he’s at.”

The consensus opinion: Austin Riley immediately made the Atlanta Braves better.

Atlanta is making an offense-for-defense switch with Riley on the major-league roster. With three-time Gold Glove winner Ender Inciarte, who claimed the most outs above average in the Statcast era entering this season, on the injured list with lower back tightness, Riley is manning left field and Ronald Acuña Jr. is in center. The Inciarte-Acuña combination is unquestionably better defensively. (Acuña’s defensive numbers are strange: Statcast tabs him with -3 outs above average, but he has six defensive runs saved on the season.) It’s too early to examine Riley’s defensive performance, particularly with the Braves (wisely) sending in defensive replacements in the late innings, but he’s yet to look out of place in left field and he went “back to his roots” to spell Josh Donaldson at third base on Sunday.

“When you are 22 years, or 21 in my case, you will do anything to get your foot in the door. Anything,” Jones said. “He’s got his foot in the door by proving at the Triple-A level that, ‘Hey, I can play left field and I can not be a detriment to the team. And I’m gonna knock in way more runs than I let in.’”

That’s held true so far.

Riley extends manager Brian Snitker’s lineup and makes the defending NL East champs more dangerous. The team is averaging 6.4 runs per game with him in the lineup, all coming against right-handed starters. With Inciarte slashing .257/.320/.370 since the start of last season — and he’s hitting 35 percent below league average in 2019 — Riley raises both the floor and ceiling of Atlanta’s offense. If he’s anywhere near this player at 22 years old, he raises the ceiling of the team overall.

Atlanta’s front office faces an interesting dilemma this week. Inciarte is scheduled to return from the 10-day injured list on May 25. The team could resort to a few rehab games in the minors, but he should be available soon. Riley took Inciarte’s spot on the 25-man roster. If Riley is here to stay — he’s proven he should be — how does the team clear space for its Gold Glove outfielder?

Charlie Culberson and Matt Joyce have hit extremely well in difficult reserve roles. Johan Camargo, who does have minor-league options, is struggling but provides more positional versatility than Inciarte. Could the team cut into its bullpen given the development of multi-inning options like Sean Newcomb, Touki Toussaint, Luke Jackson and Josh Tomlin? If and when Inciarte does return, what is his role? Starting center fielder? That’s a tough sell given his replacement-level production to date and Atlanta’s 1.018 outfield OPS through Riley’s first five games. Riley is not in the majors to sit the bench. Inciarte could fit nicely into a fourth outfielder/defensive replacement/pinch-running role, but will he be content with that decision and where would that leave opportunities for Camargo, Culberson and Joyce? Josh Donaldson owns a .383 on-base percentage with 19 extra-base hits in 44 games. He’s not going anywhere; besides, the whole point of this exercise is to get Donaldson and Riley in the same lineup.

(My best guess at a short-term solution to keep Riley in the starting lineup: Barring an injury sending another player to the injured list, the team utilizes one of Camargo’s options to get his bat going again in Triple-A, positions Inciarte as a part-time starting outfielder and full-time defensive replacement and gives Culberson more playing time in the utility role.)

Austin Riley is not going to hit like this forever. Still, he’s demonstrably upgraded Atlanta’s roster, helped propel the team to its best stretch of the season and, at the very least, looks like he will hit for enough power to stay above league average. That’s a step forward for the Braves.

Dale Zanine