AFC North guide: Expectations, predictions on Ravens, Bengals, Browns, Steelers
By Bucky Brooks
FOX Sports NFL Analyst
The Bengals are out to prove that last season was no fluke. And while Cincinnati is certainly capable of making another Super Bowl run, that doesn’t necessarily mean that Joe Burrow & Co. will win the AFC North. There’s a hard-nosed squad in Baltimore standing in the way. Let’s dive into my predictions for this gritty, evenly matched division.
John Harbaugh’s squad is a gritty unit that nearly overcame a slew of injuries to secure a playoff berth in 2021. With the expected return of a talented cast of all-stars (Lamar Jackson, Marlon Humphrey, Marcus Peters and Ronnie Stanley) to the starting lineup, the Ravens could re-emerge as title contenders without tweaking their winning formula (running game + defense + special teams = wins).
Strength: The Ravens’ multi-faceted running game creates problems for opponents with the hodgepodge of gap scheme runs, option plays and designed quarterback running plays that offensive coordinator Greg Roman throws at opponents. Lamar Jackson spearheads the attack as a dynamic, dual-threat playmaker with speed to burn and Houdini-like moves on the perimeter. With a deep stable of running backs, including JK Dobbins, Kenyan Drake, Mike Davis and Justice Hill, the Ravens’ running game beats down opponents with a flurry of body blows over four quarters.
Weakness: Can Jackson make enough throws to win games in the playoffs? That is the million-dollar question the Ravens must address to climb to the top of the AFC as a title contender. It all depends on if No. 8 can make enough plays in the passing game to keep opponents from crowding the box to slow down the team’s vaunted rushing attack.
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Breakout Player: It is hard to suggest a Ravens wideout is a breakout candidate, but former first-round pick Rashod Bateman should thrive as a featured playmaker in the passing game. Although tight end Mark Andrews is undoubtedly the No. 1 option in the passing game, Bateman should feast on one-on-one coverage with all eyes on No. 89 and the Ravens’ running game.
Win-loss prediction: 12-5
Do not mistake the Bengals for a Cinderella story. Zac Taylor’s team is loaded with five-star playmakers with the individual and collective talent to overwhelm opponents from snap to buzzer. Joe Burrow leads the charge as an ultra-cool competitor with the swagger and composure to direct a fast-break offense that lights up scoreboards around the league.
With an upgraded offensive line expected to keep him upright and protected in the pocket, the MVP candidate could help the Bengals’ offense become more explosive this season. If the opportunistic defense continues to come up with key stops and timely turnovers, the Bengals could make another run at the Super Bowl.
Strength: The Bengals’ fast-break offense lights up scoreboards around the league due to the playmakers’ ability to get buckets against any coverage. Few defenses have enough speed and talent to contain a group of wideouts that can score from anywhere on the field on an assortment of quick passes and deep balls that make defensive coordinators shake in their boots. With Joe Mixon adding balance and punch to the offense, Taylor has assembled an unstoppable offensive juggernaut that will keep the Bengals in title contention.
Weaknesses: It is hard to predict how long it will take an offensive line with four new starters to develop the chemistry and connectivity needed to control the line of scrimmage against elite opponents. Taylor needs his new quintet of Jonah Williams, Cordell Volson, Ted Karras, Alex Cappa and La’el Collins to quickly find their rhythm as Burrow’s bodyguards. That will enable the franchise player to crush opponents’ spirits with his spectacular play. If the frontline finds its way early in the season, there is no reason why the Bengals cannot win back-to-back division titles in a loaded AFC North with premier teams from top to bottom.
Breakout Player: Former first-round pick Hayden Hurst should see plenty of balls head in his direction as Burrow’s safety valve in the passing game. With opponents intent on taking away Ja’Marr Chase, Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins, the big-bodied tight end should have plenty of room to work underneath umbrella coverages.
Win-loss prediction: 11-6
The Deshaun Watson suspension likely crushes the Browns’ chances of making a serious playoff push despite a roster that looks Super Bowl-caliber on paper. While Jacoby Brissett has notched plenty of wins as a starter, it is hard to count on a long-term sub to lead even the most talented team into the playoffs. Sure, Kevin Stefanski can rely on the Browns’ punishing running game to carry the load, but Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt will need the veteran quarterback to make enough throws to loosen the box. Without a passing game balancing out their dominant ground-and-pound attack, the Browns could struggle to score points against top defenses.
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Strengths: The Browns can win a lot of games with a dominant running game and a disruptive defense. The combined talents of Chubb and Hunt will enable the Browns to shorten the game behind a “three yards and a cloud of dust” approach, but Myles Garrett & Co. will need to hold their own as a suffocating defensive unit to keep games close into the fourth quarter. If the Browns excel at complementary football, they can make life miserable for opponents ill-equipped to deal with their physicality and toughness at the line of scrimmage.
Weaknesses: Stefanski will dig deep into his playbook to come up with a plan that helps Brissett play solid football as a starter. The veteran signal-caller has been an effective game manager when surrounded by elite talent, but the Browns’ wideouts will need to step up their respective games to help No. 7 play well. How well the group performs will ultimately impact Brissett and the production of an offense that needs a high-end quarterback to compete with the heavyweights in the division.
Breakout Player: Amari Cooper is unquestionably the Browns’ WR1, but Donovan Peoples-Jones could emerge as the complementary pass-catcher on the backside. The 6-foot-2, 204-pounder has the size and speed to generate big plays on vertical routes along the boundary. Moreover, Peoples-Jones is a 50-50 ball specialist with the strong hands and leaping ability to overpower smaller defenders on the perimeter.
Win-loss prediction: 8-9
It is the end of an era in Pittsburgh, with Ben Roethlisberger hanging up the cleats after an illustrious career. With Big Ben no longer available to set the example as a two-time Super Bowl winner, the Steelers will need to organically develop new leaders while also building an offense around a new quarterback. While breaking in a new QB1 could lead the Steelers to return to an old-school approach that has served them well in the past, the play of the new quarterback will ultimately determine how well the team fares in a competitive division.
Strength: Mike Tomlin has found a way to consistently lead his teams to the winner’s circle despite facing long odds at times throughout his tenure. This season, the wise old coach will need to pull out all of his defensive wizardry to help his star-studded defense carry a team that could struggle to score points.
T.J. Watt, Minkah Fitzpatrick and Cam Heyward will need to play like five-star defenders to help the defense play at the level that will be required to overcome the offensive deficiencies that could make it hard for the Steelers to put points on the board. If the defense can take the ball away and set the offense up on short fields, the Steelers could find a way to scratch out more wins than most can envision for a one-dimensional squad that seemingly lacks offensive firepower.
Weakness: For all of the attention that was paid to the Steelers’ quarterback battle between Mitchell Trubisky and rookie Kenny Pickett, it is the performance of the offensive line that will determine the offense’s success in 2021. The underachieving unit struggled throughout the preseason with a number of blocking woes that could make life miserable for Najee Harris & Co. in the backfield. If Tomlin is unable to fix the disappointing frontline, the Steelers will have a hard time winning enough games to stay in the playoff hunt.
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Breakout Player: After fully recovering from a series of injuries that have prevented him from following up a spectacular rookie campaign with solid play in subsequent seasons, LB Devin Bush could re-emerge as the difference maker that prompted the Steelers to take him 10th overall in the 2019 draft. If the dynamic defender rediscovers his game, the Steelers’ defense could single-handedly carry the team to a few wins this season.
Win-loss prediction: 7-10
Bucky Brooks is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He regularly appears on “Speak For Yourself” and also breaks down the game for NFL Network and as a cohost of the “Moving the Sticks” podcast. Follow him on Twitter @BuckyBrooks.
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