Analysis: Boris Johnson breathes a sigh of relief on Partygate scandal. But another crisis will be along soon

On Thursday, it was announced that the British Prime Minister would not receive any further fines from the Metropolitan Police over the “Partygate” scandal that has dogged Johnson for months. Despite being the first UK premier in history found to have broken the law in office, and people working in Downing Street receiving hundreds of police fines for breaching Covid regulations that Johnson himself made, the end of this police investigation significantly reduces the risk of another smoking gun the PM’s enemies can use to get rid of him. Johnson, however, is still a long way from being out of the woods when it comes to Partygate. Next week, senior civil servant Sue Gray will publish her report into the scandal, which is likely to be highly critical of Johnson. Once that report is published, a Parliamentary Committee will then be able start an investigation into Johnson in which it will ultimately rule on whether or not Johnson deliberately misled parliament when he denied any rule-breaking had taken place in No 10. Any minster who knowingly misleads parliament would be expected to resign from their post. As hard as it may be to believe, Johnson could ride out both of these events. Even harder to believe, it’s not even the biggest problem he faces in the coming months. First, without the Scottish referendum, a significant part of the the chaos is eliminated. Second, as one Labour official put it, “we’ve been through some of the most turbulent years in recent history with the Conservatives in power. Clearly they are the agents of chaos.” Labour officials stressed to CNN that there would be no formal pact with anyone ahead of the election, but did concede that it would be prudent to focus campaigning and resources on the seats they are more likely to take from the Conservatives. They also stressed that they want Johnson to fight the next election. “He is just so toxic, and despite the damage he does to his party he keeps hanging on,” says one opposition source. All of this leaves British politics, in the medium term, in a strange place. Johnson doesn’t want to go anywhere. Those in his party who want him gone have no smoking gun. The opposition wants him to stay firmly in place. In the face of all the turbulence, all the anger directed at the government, the sense that something huge is about to happen, the fate of Boris Johnson remains stuck in the same state of limbo it’s been for much of this year. And without something inconceivably dramatic happening before the next election, it’s entirely plausible it will remain that way for the next two years. Which, arguably, is not a great thing for the people of a country living through its worst cost-of-living crisis in decades.