Analysis: Hong Kong prioritized opening to China over the rest of the world. Now it’s stuck in Covid limbo

But one city, arguably Asia’s biggest financial center, is absent from the list: Hong Kong.Hong Kong closed its borders to non-residents in early 2020 at the start of the pandemic. The semi-autonomous Chinese territory recently reopened to foreign visitors, although it still has some of the harshest quarantine rules in the world.The long closure has impacted businesses and frustrated residents. Yet the government has stood firm — repeatedly emphasizing that its priority is reopening its border with mainland China, not with the rest of the world.”We have made it very clear that our focus will be opening the border with the mainland. Hong Kong people need to go to the mainland,” said the city’s leader, Carrie Lam, at a news conference on Tuesday. “Of course, international travel is important, international business is important to us — but by comparison, the mainland is more important.”Lam’s comments illustrate just how closely Hong Kong’s government has tied its Covid strategy with China — not surprising for a Chinese territory but a further sign of Hong Kong’s deteriorating reputation as an international hub.In the face of intense criticism, the government has repeatedly defended its course of action. On Tuesday, Lam pointed to economic expansion in the first quarter to argue the city had not suffered badly from the tight restrictions.And, Chan claimed, the majority of Hong Kongers are happy with things as they are. “It’s just numbers,” he said. The people who want to open up international travel — expats, people with families abroad — “unfortunately, that’s a minority. Their priorities are different from those who are locally based.”The broader general public is “so used to zero cases, they’re happy,” he added. “They’re willing to give up leisure travel for public health.”But pandemic fatigue has long set in, and there’s no telling when the government’s bet on China will pay off. On Sunday, a member of the Executive Council told local media the city might not be able to open its China border until February. Chan refuted that estimate, but didn’t provide much hope for an earlier opening either. “It’s a moving target,” he said. “There’s no plan of a specific date or anything at all.”Last month, the border cracked open somewhat — but only one way, allowing some Chinese residents to enter Hong Kong without quarantine, not vice versa. The city is now effectively stuck in limbo, backed into a corner by its own policies with no easy path out. If Hong Kong reopens to international travel, it almost certainly will see a spike in infections — and lose all chance of reopening with China.But if it continues on its current path, there’s no telling when China will feel confident enough to reopen the border, or what criteria Hong Kong needs to meet — leaving the city at the whim of the central government, simply waiting to be allowed in. And it means clinging onto the zero-Covid strategy, “which is looking increasingly untenable in a world where Covid has become basically endemic,” Thomas said.”Hong Kong doesn’t have any real power to decide upon,” he added. “Neither option is ideal.”