Analysis: Nordic countries wonder if they are next on Putin’s list

Nations that were neutral have provided arms for Ukrainians; governments that had for years missed their NATO defense spending obligations have made spectacular U-turns; and countries that had deep economic ties to Russia have gone further in breaking the link than anyone had seriously envisaged little over a month ago.The West’s almost unprecedented unity on sanctions, political and military action has left many in Europe, despite the horrors of Putin’s war, optimistic that the continent will emerge from this better equipped to deal with security threats. Nowhere is this truer than in the three Nordic nations that sit on the Scandinavian Peninsula: Norway, Sweden and Finland.  The fate of these three countries has been brought into sharp focus by the crisis in Ukraine due to their unique relationship with each other, the rest of Europe and Russia.  “For years, Finland and Sweden had been taking action to mitigate the fact they were not in NATO by strengthening ties with the US, UK and the rest of the transatlantic community,” says Håkon Lunde Saxi, an associate professor at the Norwegian Defence University College.  He says that things like NORDEFCO and Nordic nations cooperating more closely on security make the region less vulnerable in a way that, in some respects, transcends membership of EU and NATO.  “The most powerful message of the past few weeks has been the unity,” Saxi said. “First, Denmark and Sweden sent lethal equipment to Ukraine, then Finland and Norway followed suit. The urgency of the situation is ensuring that this kind of cooperation is accelerating, which makes protecting ourselves against any opponent more possible,” he added.  It must be hard for Putin and his accomplices to fathom, but their barbaric war in Ukraine has galvanized parts of Europe that had once bent over backwards to accommodate Russia into previously unthinkable action.  Whenever the horror ends, he might wake up to a very different Europe that is almost unrecognizable to the one he’d been able to bully with gas and rhetoric. And some of the most vocal opponents might be waiting right on his doorstep.