As the West winds down its ‘war on terror,’ jihadists are filling the vacuum, UN warns

A Jihadi terror attacks have declined in Europe and North America — but the UN experts expect this is temporary because terrorist violence has been “artificially suppressed by limitations in travelling, meeting, fundraising and identifying viable targets” during the Covid-19 pandemic. At the same time, they believe the risk of online radicalization increased during the lockdowns. “One of the things that we highlight in the report that’s just come out is the possibility that the relaxation of lockdowns might mean that some pre-planned attacks can then take place,” Edmund Fitton-Brown, coordinator of the UN monitoring team told CNN.The report makes for sobering reading at a time when the United States and its allies — exhausted by the pandemic and keen to focus on economic recovery and standing up to China and Russia, have all but called an end to the 20-year ‘war on terror.’ As one leading analyst recently put it: “We might be done with jihadis, but they are not done with us.”Africa as the new epicenter of global jihadThe report warns that Africa is now “the region most affected by terrorism” — with al Qaeda and ISIS-aligned groups inflicting higher casualties there than anywhere else. In many areas, these groups are gaining support, threatening more territory, getting better weapons and raising more money.The UN monitors single out Somalia — which is beset by turmoil and getting less international military support than previously. They warn that Al-Shabaab may fill the vacuum as “strategic support” to Somali government forces declines. The threat the group poses further afield is underlined by a recent US indictment against The human toll of these insurgencies is stunning. In June, the In a CNN interview this week, Taliban spokesperson Suhail Shaheen said the group had made a commitment “not to allow any individual or group or entity to use … Afghanistan against the United States, its allies and other countries” and said terrorists will have “no place” in an Afghanistan under Taliban rule.But Fitton-Brown says the Taliban “have not broken their relationship with al Qaeda. They haven’t taken any steps against al Qaeda that they could not easily reverse and quickly reverse.” The Taliban’s offensive across Afghanistan “doesn’t give the international community much confidence that they are moving towards a real commitment to a stable negotiated and ultimately peaceful settlement in Afghanistan,” he says.There’s also concern that ISIS has a solid foothold in Afghanistan, with one member state reporting it currently has between 500 and 1,500 fighters. Despite being weakened in parts of eastern Afghanistan, the UN experts warn that ISIS’s regional affiliate “has moved into other provinces” and “strengthened its positions in and around Kabul, where it conducts most of its attacks.”Absent leadershipAs for the leadership of these terror groups, it’s a time of transition and uncertainty. The UN report notes that Amir Muhammad al-Mawla, who took over as leader of ISIS more than 18 months ago, “remains reluctant to communicate directly with supporters.” It says ISIS’ “command and control over its provinces has loosened,” referring to its international affiliates.With al Qaeda leader Ayman al Zawahiri “assessed by Member States to be alive but unwell,” the UN report says it is uncertain where the group’s likely next leader would be based. Member States report that al Zawahiri’s “probable successor” is the veteran Egyptian terrorist Saif al Adel, who “is currently located in the Islamic Republic of Iran.” The UN monitors say that were he to get the top job, it’s unclear that Adel would go to Afghanistan. They add that “some Member States point to his history of living and operating in Africa and assess that he might choose to base himself there.” Concern over the next generationTwo decades on from 9/11, the ability of al Qaeda and ISIS to threaten the West is currently lower than it has been. But the UN report shows that the danger posed by international jihadi groups has metastasized, and that they are entrenched in under-governed areas just as Western powers are preoccupied with other issues. “It’s important not to take our eye off counterterrorism and particularly important not to stop improving international counterterrorism cooperation,” says Fitton-Brown.Well over a generation ago, the international jihadi movement was energized by the withdrawal of Soviet forces from Afghanistan. It is now celebrating the end of the United States’ military presence — and likely anticipating a new influx of recruits to propel the next generation of jihad — in Afghanistan and far beyond.