Bills breakouts, Dolphins receiving options, Jets depth: AFC East mailbag

By Henry McKenna
FOX Sports AFC East Writer

The AFC East is kicking off the season with fanfare.

Not only are the Buffalo Bills set to play in the Thursday season opener against the Los Angeles Rams, but the Miami Dolphins and New England Patriots will open their season against each other. The Bills, a Super Bowl favorite, have a chance to test their mettle against the defending Super Bowl champion. The Patriots and Dolphins, who seem poised to square off for the No. 2 spot in the AFC East, will get an immediate opportunity to size themselves — and each other — up.

The season is so, so, so close. In the meantime, let’s work through your questions in the weekly mailbag. Please feel free to participate next week by tweeting at @McKennAnalysis.

From @KevinRDuffy: There’s been a lot of hype around Gabe Davis, but what do you think about Dawson Knox emerging as the top complementary option to Diggs? He’s 25, showed a major jump from Year 2 to 3, and has an elite athletic profile. Could he become one of the top TEs in the league?

The simple answer is, yes. He absolutely could. Knox finished last season with 49 catches, 587 yards and nine touchdowns. It was impressive — not elite. But with Cole Beasley (82 catches, 693 yards, 1 TD) and Emmanuel Sanders (42 catches, 626 yards, 4 TDs) no longer in the offense, the Bills have plenty of room for his numbers to grow.

“I don’t feel like I’ve hit the pinnacle of my game. I feel like I’ve just started to scratch the surface. So ready to take another step,” Knox said during training camp.

What needs to happen to get him there?

The first thing already took place. The Bills had to ensure Knox was the true No. 1 tight end. And they did that when they decided to release O.J. Howard, a 2022 free-agency acquisition. Backup tight end Tommy Sweeney is having a nice camp. But Knox is clearly the guy. His uncontested spot in the starting lineup should keep him in line for an uptick in the target share.

He also needs to take more ownership of the middle of the field. Travis Kelce got 73 targets between the numbers from the line of scrimmage to the 10-yard line in 2021, per PFF. George Kittle saw 50 targets in that area. Darren Waller got 29. 

Knox got just 17. The best tight ends take ownership of the short and intermediate parts of the field. That should be the easiest place for a tight end to generate production and Knox just isn’t doing it yet. 

Will Beasley’s departure help Knox see more targets there? We’ll see.

Josh Allen crowned as ‘best QB in the NFL’ by Bills’ Jordan Poyer

Josh Allen and the Bills are confident heading into the NFL season which prompts Marcellus Wiley and Emmanuel Acho to ponder if Allen is the best QB in the NFL.

From FourJ16: How much faith do you have in the Patriots linebacker group this year? Do you think [Jahlani] Tavai will get significant playing time?

Keep an eye on linebacker Mack Wilson. He might end up being the team’s biggest breakout player in 2022. He’s working on third downs, but has the speed and run-defending abilities to shine on all three downs. And if that works out, Bill Belichick will look extremely shrewd for swapping Chase Winovich for Wilson in a one-for-one trade this offseason.

Ja’Whaun Bentley is the alpha in the middle of the defense this year. He should play a ton. Past those two, we will see some work from Raekwon McMillan on early downs and Tavai on third-down. How much? I’m honestly not sure yet. New England is especially mysterious this offseason, with so much change on both sides of the ball.

From @SammyJ617: With the Jets leading the league in having cut players [making] other teams’ rosters, is that more reflective of the depth of the jets roster or the front office making poor decisions for their initial 53?

It’s an interesting question.

The Jets had six players land on other teams via waiver claims, the most in the NFL. 

So did New York fail to account for that external demand and lose players they wanted to keep? Or were the Jets so deep that they could afford to lose players who will serve in–depth roles elsewhere?

I’d bet it is a mix of the two. The Jets have selected 14 players in the top five rounds over the last two years. That’s a lot of young talent. And they lost some of that talent, including safety Jason Pinnock. But by bringing in so many new players in recent draft classes, some older players have been forced out. Ultimately, I think cutting Pinnock was a mistake. But otherwise, they probably just have too many depth players in that 40-53 range. Ultimately, they had to flush a few out of their system. That can happen for rebuilding teams.

From @icyphoenix36: Can the Jets actually make the leap this season?

I’ve put these two Jet-related questions together because I want to clarify something. The fact that teams want their bottom-of-the-roster talent does not mean that New York has an elite roster. It just means they have a lot of promising young players. Later in the season, New York is going to be an extremely pesky opponent. Early in the season, however, New York is going to struggle. The Jets are simply too young and too unsettled at the quarterback position. Zach Wilson was one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL in his rookie season, both in counting stats and in advanced statistics. He has a long way to go.

From @gooch_steven: Has Mehki Becton had his surgery, and if so, how did it go?

Becton underwent surgery with Dr. Neal ElAttrache in Los Angeles to repair an avulsion fracture of his right knee cap. 

Jets general manager Joe Douglas provided an update on the tackle’s recovery.

“He had a very successful procedure,” Douglas said on Wednesday. “Obviously he’s going to miss the season. We’re going to miss him, but the docs feel good about the procedure, feel good about his long-term ability to play football, which was great news, so right now he’s currently still out in L.A. training with the doctor’s rehab staff. He’ll come back here eventually to be with the team. We’re going to be excited to get him back.”

From @HurwitzSports: Will Lynn Bowden actually contribute to the Patriots or will he just be another Malcolm Perry?

Bowden signed with the Patriots practice squad this week. He is a utility player, one who was a versatile threat in college and could play running back, receiver and returner in the NFL.

Will he contribute in 2022? It will be tough. New England has a deep receiving corps that includes Jakobi Meyers, DeVante Parker, Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne. Rookie wideout Tyquan Thornton is expected to return from a collarbone injury by midseason.

So if Bowden wants to make an impact at receiver, he might want to look to 2023 when the roster looks leaner at the position. Only Thornton, Parker and Bourne have contracts that extend through next year.

Of course, Bowden can also play running back. So perhaps New England is interested in developing him into a third-down back. But even if there’s a clearer path to the field (with Ty Montgomery dealing with an injury and Pierre Strong looking overwhelmed in his rookie year), Bowden will need time to learn the offense. Again, he may have to look to 2023.

From @fwtomko: Safety Jevon Holland will be Defensive Player of the Year.

I’ll take your word for it. (But, of course, safeties almost never win the DPOY award.)

Holland had a terrific training camp. He is absolutely a player to watch in an already dangerous Miami secondary that includes Xavien Howard, Brandon Jones, Byron Jones (PUP) and Nik Needham. Holland, a 2021 second-round pick, might be a nightmare for quarterbacks in 2022. He was among the best players at his position as a rookie and earned the honors as a team captain for this season.

From @CamSGarrity: Joshuah Bledsoe looked solid all camp, how confident are you that he could be the heir apparent to Devin McCourty, who may be in his final few seasons?

Speaking of safeties who are generating buzz, Bledsoe had a great training camp, too. He was a sixth-round pick in 2021 and spent the season on injured reserve. The comparison to McCourty is faulty, however. Bledsoe compares best to current Patriot Adrian Phillips and former Patriot Patrick Chung. They are a blend between a linebacker and a defensive back.

From @bchapz: I know everyone is excited about Tyreek Hill in the Dolphins offense and helping Tua Tagovailoa, but how does the presence of Tyreek help Jaylen Waddle take a big leap in Year 2? He already had an impressive rookie year and now has a #1 WR joining the offense.

How are we measuring that big leap? If we’re talking about development on game film, then absolutely, I think Waddle will see a massive uptick. But in production? That’s a hazier picture. Waddle posted outstanding numbers in Year 1: 104 catches, 1,015 yards and six touchdowns. He might not do much better in 2022.

Let’s just think of Waddle’s production in projected receptions. In 2021, Mike McDaniel’s offense in San Francisco completed 343 passes over 17 games with Jimmy Garoppolo and Trey Lance. It’s not crazy to think quarterback Tua Tagovailoa will complete a similar number (up from 263 in 13 games last season). So if Hill catches 100, that leaves about 240 for the rest of the offense, including Waddle, tight end Mike Gesicki, receiver Cedrick Wilson and running backs Chase Edmonds and Raheem Mostert. That’s a lot of mouths to feed in an offense that may not pass the ball as much as we think.

Waddle was dealing with an injury for most of training camp, and so his hype and momentum seemed to slow during the offseason. Hill will make life easier for the second-year receiver, but it might not spell huge production for Waddle — unless the McDaniel Dolphins throw substantially more often than the McDaniel 49ers did. 

Will Zach Wilson start week 1?

I would guess there’s an 80% chance that Jets quarterback Joe Flacco starts in Week 1 against the Baltimore Ravens.

POLL: If Bill Belichick was coaching this Dolphins roster, we’d expect him to win a Super Bowl, right?

I’ll end with something that’s been on my mind, and my Twitter poll stoked enough conversation for me to address the idea in this mailbag. This Dolphins roster is so talented that if Belichick was their coach, they probably would be a Super Bowl favorite. It’s a crazy hypothetical, but an interesting one. It’s a reminder: Miami’s depth chart is elite. The only question is whether their new coach, McDaniel, can optimize their production. If he does, the Dolphins will compete with the Patriots — and maybe even the Bills — this coming season.

Prior to joining FOX Sports as the AFC East reporter, Henry McKenna spent seven years covering the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Follow him on Twitter at @McKennAnalysis.