Can Kyler Murray – a la Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson – win MVP in his sophomore season?

4 years ago

Uh oh.

Have Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson started a new trend?

No, not that kind of trend.

An NFL trend.

Over the past two seasons, Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes and Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson have revolutionized the quarterback position in the NFL.

During the 2018-19 season – his second year in the NFL but only his first year as a starter – Mahomes took the league by storm. He threw a whopping 50 touchdowns, tied for second most in a single season in NFL history, and his 5,097 passing yards put him in elite company, earning him a spot next to Peyton Manning as the only players in NFL history to throw for 50+ touchdowns and 5,000+ yards in a single season.

That year, Mahomes led the Chiefs to the AFC Championship and was named First-Team All-Pro, NFL Offensive Player of the Year, a Pro Bowler, and most impressively, NFL MVP, all at age 23.

The following year, it was Jackson’s time.

In his second year – also his first full season as a starter – Jackson threw for 3,127 yards and a league-leading 36 touchdowns, and broke Michael Vick’s single-season quarterback rushing record by collecting 1,206 yards on the ground to go along with 7 rushing touchdowns.

Jackson was named First-Team All-Pro, a Pro Bowler and – most impressively – joined his own elite company, positioning himself next to Tom Brady as the second unanimous MVP in NFL history and becoming the second-youngest MVP in NFL history behind Jim Brown – Jackson was a younger 23 than Mahomes.

So, back to the original topic – what second year quarterback has the potential to follow in the footsteps of Mahomes and Jackson in 2020?

The favorite seems to be Arizona Cardinals quarterback and last year’s No. 1 pick Kyler Murray.

In fact, former NFL player and NFL analyst Bucky Brooks went as far as to guarantee Murray will win MVP for this upcoming season:

I know it’s a bit early to make predictions for the upcoming season, but that’s how confident I am that Kyler Murray will win the league’s highest individual honor this year … That bold statement might take some by surprise, but I’m calling my shot early and jumping on the Murray bandwagon before the Arizona Cardinals go on a worst-to-first run that makes the young QB1 the league’s next great quarterback.

In his rookie season, Murray was nothing short of electric. He was named NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, passing for 3,722 yards and 20 touchdowns, and rushing for 544 yards and 4 touchdowns, becoming the second rookie quarterback in NFL history to pass for over 3,500 yards and rush for over 500 yards. The other is Cam Newton.

And even though the Cardinals finished the 2019-20 season at 5-10-1, it was rarely because of Murray.

The Arizona defense gave up 402.0 yards per game last season, worst in the NFL. It gave up 281.9 passing yards per game – second most in the NFL – and 120.1 rushing yards per game – ranking 24th in the league.

Still, despite their underachieving defense, six of the Cardinals’ 10 losses came by 10 points or less, including a 6-point loss at Baltimore and a 3-point loss at home against San Francisco.

In short, Murray and the offense kept the Cardinals in a number of games.

Arizona coach Kliff Kingsbury, also a rookie last season, believes Murray is going to make substantial leaps in his sophomore season, mainly due to the fact that Murray will be more comfortable with his teammates and the system.

“More than anything it’s being around his teammates and doing all those things off the field that you wanna see. The face of your franchise, the leadership, the work ethic, the study habits and all those things you really learn after year one that you have to do to be an elite player. I think the biggest steps he’s gonna take outside of that is his decision-making … Everything was happening for him really fast at times last year. Second year in the system, very familiar with his O-line, his running backs, his receivers, I just feel like some of those negative plays taken early in the season are gonna be erased and it’s really gonna help us an offense.”

It certainly won’t hurt that during the offseason, Murray acquired a new teammate, a guy that happens to be one of the best receivers in the NFL over the past 7 seasons.

The Houston Texans sent superstar wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins and fourth round pick to the Cardinals for David Johnson, a second round pick and a fourth round pick.

In five of his seven NFL seasons, Hopkins has put up over 1,000 receiving yards, including 1,165 in 2019 and 1,572 in 2018. He is a 4-time Pro Bowler and 3-time First-Team All-Pro selection.

Think Murray’s excited to have Hopkins on one side and the legendary Larry Fitzgerald on the other this upcoming season?

NFL Network analyst and former NFL general manager Charley Casserly said that Hopkins is “a perfect guy for [the Cardinals] system.”

“It’s not a vertical system. The ball isn’t going downfield. The ball gets into the receiver’s hands quick and then it’s run after the catch … The other thing is he’s going to help them in the red zone. Him and [Fitzgerald] in the red zone gives [Murray] two [big] receivers.”

The Cardinals have not had a 1,000-yard receiver in the past two years. Last season, Fitzgerald totaled 804 receiving yards, and second-year receiver Christian Kirk tallied 709 receiving yards.

Now, with the addition of Hopkins, former Cardinals quarterback Carson Palmer is even higher on Murray’s chances to have a breakout season given he now has one of the greatest weapons in the game, along with a veteran Fitzgerald.

“Kyler can get through [options one and two] and then use what God gave him with his feet and his speed and his quickness, and just look for DeAndre. Even though DeAndre might be covered, you can throw him a high ball, you can throw him a back-shoulder ball, you can lead him downfield and let him go run underneath it … I just thought that addition was the perfect addition as opposed to bringing in a pure speed guy or a prolific route-runner.”

On top of acquiring Hopkins, the Cardinals also drafted Clemson superstar defender Isaiah Simmons with the eighth pick.

Simmons was a unanimous All-American and ACC Defensive Player of the Year in 2019, and pundits think he will make a major impact on the defensive side of the ball for Arizona, helping the Cardinals eclipse their five wins from last season and have a chance at making the playoffs.

So, if the Murray and Hopkins make the potent offensive duo that many think they will, Simmons can boost the Arizona defense, and the Cardinals can earn a few more wins, can Murray vault himself into the MVP talks?

Skip Bayless thinks so, just based on Murray’s success from last season and the improvements that the Cardinals made in the offseason, highlighted by Hopkins and Simmons.

“What Kyler did last year was extraordinary … Kyler beat the Falcons, he won at the Giants, he beat the Browns at home, and then he won late in the year at Seattle. Beyond that, and more importantly, he nearly beat the Ravens [in Baltimore] and he gave the 49ers all they wanted twice last year … Trust me, the 49ers are like, ‘Uh-oh, here he comes.’ Now he has DeAndre Hopkins. Now the defense has Isaiah Simmons … If they win 12 games, Kyler is gonna be right in the thick of the MVP race and I, for one, would not be shocked if he wins it.”

FOX Bet currently gives Murray the ninth best odds to win the 2020 NFL MVP, and Sports Illustrated’s Frankie Taddeo doesn’t think Murray is that far off, based on the addition of Hopkins, the Cardinals receiving corp as a whole, and Kingsbury’s pass-heavy offensive schemes.

“…[Arizona] adds arguably the best wideout in the NFL, not named Michael Thomas, in Hopkins. Over the past five seasons, Hopkins has averaged 101 receptions, 1,318 receiving yards and nine touchdowns … Hopkins will immediately help the Cardinals stretch the field, threatening the back end of opposing defenses while easily increasing the overall passing of Murray beyond the 4,000 passing yard mark with the aging but extremely reliable Larry Fitzgerald in the slot. Christian Kirk has shown flashes of potential and with a mix of young wideouts in Andy Isabella and Hakeem Butler, the potential is limitless.”

Still, there are some who have doubts regarding Murray’s ability to ascend to MVP in his second year similar to Mahomes and Jackson, even those that are fans of Murray, such as former NFL quarterback and current NFL analyst Chris Simms.

“I love Kyler Murray and I think he’s gonna have a huge year this year. I just don’t know if I think Arizona, being in that division, and still in the early stages of turning around their football team under the vision of Kliff Kingsbury, is gonna be good enough or competitive enough to warrant an MVP. You gotta be on a really good team to be in the MVP conversation.”

Last season, Jackson and the Ravens amassed 14 wins, and the year before, Mahomes and the Chiefs won 12 games.

In fact, no NFL MVP’s team has won less than 10 games in a season since 1997, when Barry Sanders’ Detroit Lions finished the season 9-7 and Sanders shared the MVP award with Green Bay’s Brett Favre, a team that won 13 games. In addition, only twice in NFL history has a player won MVP and his team has not qualified for the postseason: O.J. Simpson in 1973 with the Buffalo Bills and Johnny Unitas in 1967 with the Baltimore Colts.

In short, winning matters, which Shannon Sharpe points out.

“What did Lamar Jackson do last year? His team was 14-2. In the previous year, Patrick Mahomes’ team was [12-4] … I do believe [Murray] is going to be better but Mahomes is not going anywhere, or Lamar Jackson … It’s still a stat award, but your team has to have a lot of success.”

If Murray wants to have any chance at the award, not only will he have to dominate individually, his Cardinals team will have to challenge for the NFC West Division title with reigning NFC Champion San Francisco, the 2018-19 NFC Champion Los Angeles Rams, and Russell Wilson‘s Seattle Seahawks, back-to-back NFC Champions in 2013-13 and 2014-15.

Seems like a tall task for a second year QB.

We’ll see if the 5’10” Murray is up to the challenge.

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