College football odds: Arch Manning’s gambling impact on Texas football

By Sam Panayotovich
FOX Sports Betting Analyst

When five-star quarterback recruit Arch Manning committed to play football for the Texas Longhorns in late June, you could almost hear the celebrations and jubilations from Austin.

Manning’s decision didn’t change the betting odds for the upcoming season – Alabama, Ohio State and Georgia are still the heavy hitters to win the 2023 CFP National Championship – but it will certainly help swing the pendulum over the next decade and restore order to a storied Longhorn program.

And while Manning won’t take a regular-season snap in burnt orange for at least 14 more months, the recruiting domino effect will be fascinating to follow.

As my FOX Sports teammate Joel Klatt stated last month, “Steve Sarkisian may have won the most coveted prize we may have ever seen in recruiting. It’s not just because that guy chose Texas, it’s that the Manning family chose Texas.”

To break down Manning’s impact from a gambling perspective, I rounded up nine Las Vegas betting buddies to get their thoughts on Arch Manning’s commitment to Sarkisian and what it means for the Longhorns’ future. 

These are their stories.

“I’m on vacation, mi amigo,” said WynnBET vice president of trading Alan Berg.

Welp. Luckily, Berg’s lieutenant Motoi Pearson was ready to rock. 

“Arch has found him a nice home at Texas,” the WynnBET senior trader told FOX Sports. “[Sarkisian] is finding some talented offensive pieces to surround any quarterback. And any legit quarterback has to be worth at least a touchdown if he wants to be like Peyton.

“Do I think he possesses that type of talent? Yes. But only time will tell.”

Pearson’s insinuation that Manning could be worth seven points to the betting line one day is very strong. Recent Heisman Trophy winners Joe Burrow, Kyler Murray, Baker Mayfield and Lamar Jackson were all worth around a touchdown, if not more.

Bryce Young’s value is up there, too, but it’s tougher to quantify his true value because Alabama is an offensive juggernaut, and Nick Saban would just drop another blue-chip prospect under center if Young went down.

Either way, Texas is undoubtedly dreaming about Manning reaching his potential. More importantly, you don’t just get Manning when you successfully convince a player of that caliber to commit. You open the door to a new slew of offensive weapons that will crave an opportunity to play with the next Eli or Peyton.

“[Manning’s signing] speaks to the quality of recruits they’re bringing in and the program being on the right track,” Circa Sports sportsbook director Matt Metcalf said. “I would be surprised if Sarkisian doesn’t have success there, as he’s a great offensive guy, and it shouldn’t be difficult to get the pieces there. 

“I’ve been waiting for the return of Texas to elite status, and I believe they have a shot at getting there again with Manning.”

Metcalf’s pal John Murray is paying close attention to recruiting, too.

“We see the reports about them crushing it on the recruiting trail, so we are definitely keeping a close eye on it,” the Westgate SuperBook executive director said. “But Texas is almost always a trendy team, and they’ve been letting people down for years playing in the Big 12. It’s about to get a lot tougher for them when they move to the SEC [in 2025]. We won’t make significant adjustments until they show us something on the field.”

“Texas is a big-time program that has played like a Mountain West program for the last several years,” US Bookmaking director of operations Robert Walker added. “The Horns have been average in every sense of the word, so it’s fascinating to see them land a player like Arch Manning.

“However, I still feel like Texas will underachieve somehow. Expectations are always high in Longhorn Land, and now they’re through the roof. And I’m not the biggest Steve Sarkisian fan either because nobody leaves Washington or Washington State and doesn’t feel my wrath.”

“Texas gonna Texas,” former Las Vegas oddsmaker Aaron Kessler cracked.

Other bookmakers remain curious about Manning’s true potential. It’s one thing to watch him tear up seven-on-seven drills and dominate inferior high school-level competition. It’s another to be taking snaps in the vaunted SEC, which is lining up to (be) the Longhorns’ home for the majority of Arch’s career.

“I don’t have enough tape of what he’s done so far, but if he is as good as advertised, Texas will certainly be poised to compete from day one against the SEC heavyweights,” PlayUp USA head of wagering Rex Beyers said. “Manning has already helped several other four and five-star recruits who might have been on the fence to commit to Texas. Sometimes that is more important than what Arch himself is worth to the program.”

“He was the first freshman to start on the varsity at his high school on the varsity squad in 40 years,” Rampart Casino sportsbook director Duane Colucci said. “There are tons of YouTube and Twitter videos showing him ball out, but others believe he would only be a three-star prospect if he weren’t named Manning. Both Eli and Peyton were successful, so there’s no reason Arch won’t be, but he still has a long way to go.”

Then there’s the resident curmudgeon, who always reminds me that it’s important to stay in the moment and keep the horse in front of the cart. 

“It’s a non-factor until he’s under center for a team we line,” Circa Sports assistant sportsbook manager Jeff Davis said. “Until then, it’s about as relevant as Charlie Woods [Tiger’s 13-year-old son] to win a golf tournament.” 

Despite Davis’ disdain in the present, Manning will soon be competing with either Hudson Card or Quinn Ewers for QB1 status on Sarkisian’s depth chart. And we’ll eventually learn Manning’s value to the betting line and whether Texas can rise up and challenge college football’s heavyweights.

Call me a sucker, but I can’t wait to see how Arch Manning’s collegiate career unfolds, and I’m hoping the Texas Longhorns return to prominence.

Some of my fondest betting memories are riding the Texas and “Over” train during Vince Young and the Horns’ historic 13-0 season back in 2005. Texas finished 12-1 against the spread (ATS) and 12-1 to the “Over” en route to a national championship game victory over USC.

It’ll be a little while before the Longhorns are legit contenders for another title. Heading into the upcoming season, most American sportsbooks are dealing them at 50-1 or higher behind the likes of Texas A&M, USC, Oklahoma, Notre Dame and Michigan. 

But that doesn’t mean the Longhorn faithful aren’t dreaming of another confetti party with Arch Manning at center stage. 

Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He’ll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.