College football odds: Best over/under futures bets for every Power 5

The dog days of summer are quickly coming to an end, and bettors are excited about getting the chance to cash in on some college football action. 

And when it comes to the College Football Playoff (CFP), other than last year’s outlier Cincinnati team, the four-team tournament has been dominated by blue blood, Power 5 programs. Essentially, all roads to the natty go through the SEC, Big Ten, ACC, Pac-12 or Big 12. And if we’re being brutally honest, the path to the title really goes through the SEC.

Ahead of the season, fans and gamblers love to speculate about how many games each team will win. Between the NFL Draft, the transfer portal and unfortunate injuries, no team’s roster looks identical from one year to the next. So deciding where to budget your bucks on every squad’s projected win total in the wake of all that movement can be challenging. That’s where our very own FOX Sports analyst Geoff Schwartz steps in to save the day.

Geoff — former Oregon Duck and NFL lineman — breaks down his best over/under win totals for every Power 5 conference. Can the Florida Gators be competitive in the SEC and win more than 6.5 games? Will the Buckeyes exceed 10.5 victories for a near-perfect regular season? How about the Sooners? With Lincoln Riley at USC and a new regime in place, is the under Oklahoma’s destiny?

Let’s dive into the over/under bets our expert thinks are worth the sprinkle ahead of this exciting college football season (all odds via FOX Bet).

SEC

Texas A&M — Over 8.5 wins: -200 at FOX Bet (bet $10 to win $15 total)

The A&M schedule sets up for the Aggies to win at least nine games. They should beat three of their four non-conference opponents with ease. In Week 3, A&M faces Miami at home. The Hurricanes have a brand-new coaching staff and will still be figuring things out that early in the season, so A&M should be favored by at least a touchdown.

The Aggies’ SEC West schedule is always tough, but they catch a break with their SEC East cross-conference matchups. They do not play Georgia, Kentucky or Tennessee — the top three SEC East teams last year.

I’m taking Texas A&M to exceed the projected win total.

Florida — Over 6.5 wins: -175 at FOX Bet (bet $10 win $15.71 total)

Florida’s 2021 season was a tale of two halves. The Gators started the season 4-2, including a two-point loss to the Tide where they controlled the line of scrimmage. Unfortunately for former Florida coach Dan Mullen, they limped to the finish line, getting dominated by Georgia and South Carolina and barely beating Samford on the way to a 6-7 finish. Mullen was replaced by former Louisiana coach Billy Napier, and things are looking up for the Gators in 2022.

According to Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings, Florida finished the 2021 season ranked 23rd on offense, 39th on defense and 30th overall. 

Overall, here’s what will help Florida hit the over: new coaching, better discipline all over the field and better turnover luck. If the Gators do all of that, that team will have more wins than losses.

Big Ten

Michigan — Under 9.5 wins: +100 at FOX Bet (bet $10 to win $20 total)

Coach Jim Harbaugh won at least 10 games in 2015 and in 2016. He also got to 10 wins in 2018 and then again last season. Harbaugh and his yo-yo record will be back this season. Look for Michigan to win nine games. 

Michigan’s offense exploded last season behind the Joe Moore Award-winning offensive line and Broyles Award-winning offensive coordinator Josh Gattis. But that unit will look different going into the upcoming season. Two offensive line starters are gone, and Gattis has moved to Miami to run the Canes’ offense. Michigan’s offense will take a step back without those pieces. However, they do return wide receiver Ronnie Bell — the team’s best option for explosive plays at the wide receiver position. But that won’t be enough.

On the bright side, Big Blue does catch a break with its schedule, as UM only has four road games. Michigan’s non-conference schedule is all cupcakes, so the squad should start 3-0. If they can avoid a home upset against Michigan State or Penn State, wagering on this under could spell trouble. But a loss to Ohio State and then losses in two of the three games between the Penn State, Michigan State and Iowa matchups should help this under cash.

Ohio State — Over 10.5 wins: -200 at FOX Bet (bet $10 to win $15 total)

The margin of error for an over wager of 10.5 wins is slim. Ohio State can only afford to lose a single game for this bet to hit. But, the Buckeyes won 10 regular season games last year, in what some would consider a down season. 

OSU’s offense looked sluggish at times last season, but the unit also scored a million points. Defensively, they appeared out of sorts against Oregon and Michigan, but I see them improving on that front. A new defensive scheme that should create more looks and variety will help the Buckeyes’ defense get after the passer and not allow so many yards. 

On offense, they are guided by Heisman hopeful C.J. Stroud, who threw for 44 touchdowns and 4,435 yards last season while completing nearly 72% of his passes. Ohio State has tough road games at Michigan State and Penn State, but they get Notre Dame, Michigan and Wisconsin at home. Playing those tough opponents at home instead of on the road will work in the Buckeyes’ favor.

Ohio State will win 11 games this season, thus cashing this ticket.

Pac-12

USC — Under 9.5 wins: +130 at FOX Bet (bet $10 to win $23 total)

USC will score a ton of points this season, but its opponents will also score a ton of points this season. If I could bet the over for every one of the team’s games this season, I would do that now.

Being an OL guy, the biggest question that comes to my mind is can USC block and tackle well enough to win 10 games? I’m not sure, which scares me. And how quickly can all the transfers gel, learn new schemes and play with confidence? I’m not sure about that either.

USC’s schedule isn’t tough, especially since the Trojans don’t have to play conference rivals Oregon or Washington. But they do travel to Oregon State and Utah, two teams that humiliated them on their home turf in the Coliseum by rushing for a combined 502 yards. 

Lincoln Riley getting 10 wins in his first season as head coach is too ambitious. Give me the plus-money with the under.

Utah — Over 8.5 wins: -118 at FOX Bet (bet $10 to win $18.47 total)

This one surprised me as we’ve seen Utah win at least nine games over their last three full seasons (throw out the COVID-19 year for every single discussion about this sport). 

Entering the 2022 season, Utah’s offense is the healthiest it has been in years. The team returns quarterback Cam Rising and running back Tavion Thomas. Rising will be in the Heisman conversation, even if only for a few whispers. And Thomas rushed for 1,109 yards on 204 carries last year, so expect him to have an impact again. The Utes did replace their two best linemen, but their scheme should allow them to continue rolling on offense.

Defensively, while the Utes must replace their two middle linebackers, this team returns almost everyone else from a top-tier unit. 

If Utah stays healthy, they will win 10 games or more this season.

ACC

Wake Forest — Over 8.5 wins: +100 at FOX Bet (bet $10 to win $20 total)

The Deacons were able to win 11 games last season because of their offense, which finished fifth in points per scoring opportunity. They averaged 41 points per game using their slow-mesh style which is extremely frustrating for teams to defend. Wake returns its quarterback, four offensive linemen and a bunch of skill position players. 

The Deacons’ defense was not good last season, but they won in spite of that. Purdue finished 25th on defense last season, but a change at coordinator — the addition of Purdue’s former defensive play caller — should help. Wake’s schedule features VMI, Vandy and Liberty, and all three of those games should be wins. 

Wake Forest will be favored in home games against Duke, Syracuse, North Carolina, Army and Boston College. The Demon Deacons will win at least nine games.

Pittsburgh — Over 7.5 wins: -167 at FOX Bet (bet $10 to win $15.99 total)

This number surprised me. It feels like an overreaction to some roster movement. 

Yes, Kenny Pickett is gone, but he’s being replaced by USC transfer Kedon Slovis. In a functional offense with a strong offensive line, Slovis will be fine. Pittsburgh returns its entire offensive line, and while they do lose Jordan Addison, I don’t think losing one dynamic receiver will make or break the season. 

The Panthers return six All-ACC defensive starters from a unit that finished seventh in sack rate and 29th overall. 

Pitt has enough talent and a favorable enough schedule to win eight games. 

Big 12

Oklahoma — Over 8.5 wins: -167 at FOX Bet (bet $10 to win $15.99 total)

I do not understand this number. This win-total projection must reflect oddsmakers’ uncertainty about the prowess of new head coach Brent Venables. Because this number isn’t based on Oklahoma’s talent or schedule.

The Sooners open with five games where they will be heavily favored, including a Week 3 matchup at Nebraska. Then they get Texas and Kansas before a bye week. At worst, they will be 5-2 after seven games. Then after playing Iowa State, West Virginia and Texas Tech — assuming they go into that stretch at 5-2 — the Sooners should have eight wins. After that, OU will need to beat either Baylor or Oklahoma State to get to nine Ws on the season.

I can see Oklahoma at 7-0 before the bye week. That’s why for me, this is an easy over. 

Iowa State — Under 6.5 wins: -110 at FOX Bet (bet $10 to win $19.09)

I understand the love head coach Matt Campbell has gotten for his work at Iowa State. 

The Cyclones won 11 combined games in the four seasons before Campbell arrived. In his first season, he only had three wins. Since then, Campbell’s squad has won at least seven games a year. However, Iowa State massively underachieved last season, which worries me because that energy might carry over into this year. 

Iowa State’s defense fared a tad better than the offense last season. The D was somewhat well-rounded; the unit was good against the run, pass and decent on third downs. The concern for this roster is that it lost 63% of production from last season, and they’ve only recruited four blue-chip prospects in the last four recruiting cycles. 

The Cyclones have to replace a ton of production while playing a schedule that features heavyweights in Baylor, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Texas. They will not be the favorite in many conference games this season. 

The under just makes sense here.

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