College football odds: Can Lincoln Riley bring USC a title in Year 1?

College football season kicks off in a little more than a month, but fans and bettors are already putting money down on teams they like to win it all.

When it comes to national championship futures, the USC Trojans‘ odds to add some hardware to their trophy case currently sit at +3000 at FOX Bet. Those are the sixth-best odds behind Alabama (+200), Ohio State (+350), Georgia (+350), Clemson (+1200) and tied with Texas A&M (+3000). Gamblers who think the Trojans will “Fight On” and win the natty can bet $10 right now to pocket $310 if USC hoists the final trophy. 

But do the Trojans have a realistic shot at the title?

Perhaps some extra motivation for bettors and certainly the Trojans is that Los Angeles is the site of the next College Football Playoff (CFP) National Championship Game. First-year head coach Lincoln Riley could lead the Trojans to a season that lands them a spot in the title game in their home city. The Los Angeles Rams did exactly that last season in the NFL, so there could be another parade looming for football fans in Southern California. 

But don’t scatter the ticker tape just yet.

What do the odds say about Riley’s chances of getting his team to the Promised Land in his first year at SC? More importantly, is betting on Riley to win it all next season at +3000 worth the wager? 

Let’s dive into the odds.

Every head coach in the game was a first-year at some point in his career. So to determine if the chips are as stacked against Riley as the odds suggest, we first looked at how a few other great head coaches fared in the first years with their teams.

Let’s start with Nick Saban. Yes, it feels like Saban has been coaching since before the beginning of time, but his first year coaching Alabama was actually the 2007 season. Per FOX Sports Research, his straight-up (SU) record was 7-6 that year. Record books, though, have Saban at 2-6 in 2007 because five wins were vacated after the NCAA uncovered violations.

Dabo Swinney is another championship-winning head coach whose recent success Riley would love to emulate at SC. In Sweeney’s first year coaching Clemson, he took over for Tommy Bowden after he resigned midseason. Swinney then led the Tigers to a 4-3 SU record the rest of the way.

Back down in the SEC is Kirby Smart, who took the reins in Athens as head coach in 2016 and went 8-5 straight up.

While Saban, Swinney and Smart all eventually won championships, they were all just barely above .500 during their first head coaching seasons with their current teams. 

Not bad but also not good enough to get you into the CFP Championship Game.

But what about teams whose chances are on the longer end of the oddsboard? From a historical betting perspective, have any teams listed at +3000 odds or longer really stood a chance?

Well, since 2001, there have been a few squads that ended up winning the title after having some long preseason odds. 

In 2010, Auburn won it all after entering the year at +5000. That season gamblers who wagered on quarterback Cam Newton and his Tigers ended up walking away with a nice payout.

FOX Sports Research also found that both the 2014 Ohio State and 2003 LSU teams entered those seasons sitting at +4000 to win the national championship. So backers of the Buckeyes and the Bayou Bengals in those years ended up counting their lucky stars along with their cold, hard cash.

LSU actually defied the odds again in 2019. The Tigers captured college football’s biggest trophy after starting the season at +2500.

Based on this, +3000 doesn’t look so bad after all. What say you, Lincoln Riley?

How are gamblers wagering on USC’s title odds? For that, we turned to FOX Bet senior sports trader Dylan Brossman.

“Gamblers have laid the third-most money on USC to win the national championship, behind only Ohio State and Alabama,” Brossman stated.

The public could be high on the Trojans because of Riley’s success coaching up quarterbacks.

“Pro Football Focus ranks USC QB Caleb Williams as the No. 2 quarterback in the country, thanks, in part, to the addition of Coach Lincoln Riley,” Brossman explained. “Riley’s previous quarterbacks — Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, Jalen Hurts and Spencer Rattler — have all put up impressive numbers, so there’s no reason to believe this trend won’t continue with the talented transfer.”

Brossman also explained that the Trojans’ real competition comes around the season’s halfway point.

“USC’s first major test doesn’t come until mid-October when they head to Utah to face the defending Pac-12 champ,” Brossman said. “If USC can get past Utah, the team’s last game of the regular season against Notre Dame could have serious playoff implications.”

Riley’s straight-up record was 12-2 back in his first year as the Sooners‘ head coach. With that track record in mind, putting a few dollars on Riley and the Trojans to go over their projected total of 9.5 wins might be a bet worth considering.

Are you ready to back Riley and SC to defy the odds and finish the season as the last squad standing? Head over to FOX Bet to get in on the action now!

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