Heisman Forecast: History shows missing time could derail Tua Tagovailoa’s Heisman hopes

Twenty. Six. Years.

That’s how long it’s been since Florida State’s Charlie Ward in 1993 was the last player — and the fifth ever — to miss a game and still go on to win a Heisman Trophy.

Alabama‘s Tua Tagovailoa is going to test that, as the preseason favorite and one of the players on a very short list who can actually win this season’s awards, will be out for at least this week’s game vs. Arkansas after ankle surgery. Whether his absence stretches beyond that could all but remove him from the conversation, but with a week off before the Crimson Tide face No. 2 LSU on Nov. 9, it would be stunning to not see Tagovailoa back at the helm of Nick Saban’s offense by then.

But consider this: along with with the lack of a winner who has missed time since Ward, no one has finished in the top three in the voting without playing an entire season since Oregon’s LaMichael James came in behind Auburn’s Cam Newton and Stanford’s Andrew Luck in 2010.

That’s the history that Tagovailoa is dealing with. His presence as the poster boy of a national title contender, and one with more household name status than almost any player in the nation, make this a compelling case.

His absence may well open he door for other contenders, but who is in line to take advantage? Before we look at the players who can build their own profiles, here’s a look at this voter’s top three heading into Week 9.

1. Joe Burrow, LSU QB
2. Jalen Hurts, Oklahoma QB
3. Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama QB

Butch Dill Butch Dill-USA TODAY Sports