How the public, sharps are betting Cowboys-Packers, Washington-Oregon

As NFL Week 10 odds bear down on us, here’s the $20,000 question – or perhaps the $20 question for the throngs of recreational bettors: Will Josh Allen play this week?

On Thursday morning, it’s a pretty open-ended question. But the speculators are, well, speculating. Allen’s elbow issue is having a huge impact on odds for the Bills’ Sunday showdown on FOX against the visiting Minnesota Vikings.

Following are insights on that contest and several more betting nuggets on NFL Week 10 odds and college football Week 11 odds.

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Allen was injured on the Bills’ final play against the New York Jets. It was a strip-sack that cemented Buffalo’s surprising 20-17 loss as a 10.5-point road favorite.

On Wednesday, Allen didn’t practice, and Bills coach Sean McDermott declared the QB day-to-day. That led to even more downward movement on a line that’s been tumbling all week.

On Sunday night, the consensus opening number for Vikings-Bills was Buffalo -8.5. At WynnBet, Buffalo opened at -7.5 (-105). By Monday night, the Bills were down to -6.5; by Tuesday, the line was down to -5.

In the wake of Wednesday’s news on Allen, Buffalo is now a mere 3.5-point favorite at WynnBet for Sunday’s 1 p.m. ET kickoff.

“We have seen a flood of Vikings bets as the news on Josh Allen continues to be obscure at best,” WynnBet trader John Manica said. “I really have no idea if he is going to be available Sunday. The way the number has been going down, my best guess is that we will not see him as the starter. The Bills are still a talented team and face a fortunate 7-1 Vikings team that, as I have said before, does not historically perform well against outdoor winning teams.

“We saw some small Bills resistance at -5 and -3.5. But if Josh Allen is ruled completely out, we will quickly be at the key number of 3 and will certainly need the Allen-less Bills on Sunday.”

The Bills are 6-2 straight up (SU) and 4-3-1 against the spread (ATS), while the Vikes are 7-1 SU/3-4-1 ATS.

On the Sharp Side

Not surprisingly, professional bettors were on the Vikings-Bills line right out of the gate. A few sportsbooks, including The SuperBook, opened Buffalo -9, which was impossible for one sharp bettor to overlook.

“I took Minnesota +9 when it opened, for obvious reasons,” he said.

If you’ve got the bankroll to make it worthwhile, that bettor said a middle position “no doubt” is worth consideration. For those unfamiliar with middling, a brief explainer: A bettor who got in at Vikings +9 could come back in on Bills -3.5 – or, who knows, perhaps even -3 – and scoop up both bets. There’s a 5.5-point window and possibly 6 if Allen gets ruled out.

If Buffalo wins by, say, a touchdown, both tickets cash.

Moving along, in the NFL’s first regular-season game in Germany, the sharp bettor hasn’t yet fired but again likes the underdog. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 3-point favorites against the Seattle Seahawks in Munich.

“I’ll most likely be playing Seattle +3,” he said. “The Seahawks are a real team and play on both sides of the ball.”

It’s Never Under Til It’s Over

Before going any further, we’ve got to get the Thursday Night Football nugget in here since it won’t be of any use a few hours from now. The Carolina Panthers are 2.5-point home underdogs to the Atlanta Falcons, but the bigger story is the total.

“There are supposed to be high winds for this clash between the Falcons and Panthers,” WynnBet’s Manica said. “We took some respected bets earlier in the week on Over 43 and 43.5, but heavy backing came in on Under 44. It did not stop at any level until we went to the bottom of the market at 42.

“This division clash lacks elite quarterback play, and this game could be played close to the vest in poor conditions, as the division remains wide open.”

Indeed. Every team in the NFC South is below .500, with the Falcons tied for first at 4-5 SU (6-3 ATS), and the Panthers in the basement at 2-7 SU (3-6 ATS).

Is the Pack Ever Coming Back?

When the 2022-23 season began, pretty much no one would’ve projected that NFL Week 10 odds would see the Dallas Cowboys favored at Lambeau Field against the Packers.

But favored the Cowboys are, in another big Sunday matchup on FOX, with a 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff. Dallas is 6-2 SU and ATS, with Dak Prescott again healthy, while Green Bay is 3-6 SU and ATS. The Packers have lost five in a row SU (1-4 ATS).

The SuperBook opened Dallas -3.5 and quickly got bet to -4 and -4.5. Now the line is Cowboys -5.

DraftKings opened Dallas -4.5 and sped to -5, then returned to -4.5 late Wednesday night. Early bettors at DraftKings don’t think this is the week that Aaron Rodgers turns things around. The Cowboys are drawing 78% of early point-spread tickets and 69% of early point-spread money.

College Football Rocks on FOX

On Saturday night, No. 6 Oregon aims to stay in the College Football Playoff conversation when it hosts No. 25 Washington. The Ducks are 8-1 SU and, at 7-2 ATS, are now among the best spread-covering teams in the nation. That’s a big turnaround from getting waxed against Georgia 49-3 in Week 1.

The Huskies (7-2 SU, 4-5 ATS) would love nothing more than to ruin their border rival’s CFP hopes. As of Thursday morning, there’s not much to this game yet at The SuperBook, where Oregon is a healthy 13.5-point favorite and the total is 73.

“There’s sharp action on Over 72,” SuperBook risk manager and oddsmaker Neil Fitzroy said. “There’s no interest in that game yet.”

But that’s sure to change when kickoff arrives at 7 p.m. ET, wrapping up a college football tripleheader on FOX.

Over at DraftKings, early point-spread ticket count is almost 4-1, and early spread money is just beyond 3-1 on the host Ducks.

This week, the Big Noon on FOX matchup pits Indiana (3-6 SU and ATS) against No. 2 Ohio State (9-0 SU, 4-4-1 ATS). Not surprisingly, the spread is monstrous, with the Buckeyes laying a whopping 40 points at DraftKings.

That’s too much to swallow for early bettors, who are taking the big underdog. Early point-spread tickets and money are both in the 3-1 range on the Hoosiers at DraftKings.

Horned Frogs and Longhorns

The TCU–Texas clash is arguably the biggest game on the college football Week 11 odds board. Texas Christian (9-0 SU, 7-1-1 ATS) is currently No. 4 in the CFP rankings and is the best spread-covering team in the nation. However, Texas (6-3 SU and ATS) is favored to foul up the Horned Frogs’ season.

“We’re currently at Texas -7 and 65,” The SuperBook’s Fitzroy said of the spread and total. “Both the public and a couple of respected bettors are on the Horned Frogs at +7.5. The public is still interested in TCU at +7. TCU is getting 83% of spread tickets.”

This key contest kicks off at 7:30 p.m. ET Saturday.

Sunday Night Showdown

Going back to the NFL, WynnBet has the San Francisco 49ers as 7-point home favorites against the Los Angeles Chargers. The Niners (4-4 SU and ATS) are coming off the bye week and hope they’ve gotten things together after a solid Week 8 road win over the defending Super Bowl champion Rams.

The Chargers (5-3 SU and ATS) snuck past the Falcons on the road last week without injured wideouts Mike Williams (ankle) and Keenan Allen (hamstring). Williams isn’t expected back this week, while Allen is questionable.

“The bets on the side have not really come in yet, but there has been action on the total,” Manica said. “The Under has taken several respected bets, moving the number from 47.5 at open to where we currently are at 45.5. Two main weapons, one for each side, still remain questionable in Keenan Allen and [the 49ers’] Deebo Samuel. The availability of these two could see the total go back up if they are able to play, but early indications are showing that they will not be on the field Sunday.”

The New Orleans Saints–Pittsburgh Steelers tilt, a 1 p.m. ET contest on FOX, probably doesn’t fire the imagination much. But it’s drawn early interest at WynnBet.

“We saw action on both the side and total this week,” Manica said. “The total started at 41.5 and was bet down to 40.5 with no real resistance. Each team generally finds itself offensively challenged, having dealt with less-than-standard quarterback play and relying heavily on the run game. The Steelers have a distinct rest advantage, as the schedule-makers were not kind to the Saints in this spot.”

New Orleans (3-6 SU and ATS) played in the Week 10 Monday night game, losing to the Ravens, and now has to travel to Pittsburgh (2-6 SU, 3-4-1 ATS), which is coming off its bye.

“The Steelers took several bets from +2.5 down to where we currently are at +1.5. No real interest has been shown on the Saints’ side,” Manica said.

I Like Big Bets and I Cannot Lie

Right out of the gate with this week’s Thursday nighter in the NFL, a Caesars Sports customer in Arizona is firing large:

· $130,000 on Panthers +3.5 (-130)
· $110,000 on Falcons-Panthers Under 43.5

Should both bets hit, the customer will win $200,000.

Meanwhile, earlier in the week, a Nevada bettor wagered $100,000 on the Miami Dolphins +3000 (30-1) to win the Super Bowl.

The potential payout: $3 million.

And it certainly moved the needle at Caesars, where the Dolphins are now +2200.

Neither my bets nor yours are likely to do much needle-moving this week. Nor will they potentially win millions of dollars. But here’s hoping they land us a few nice dinners. #ChilisMoney. Enjoy the football this weekend.

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.