Is this the year Timberwolves move up in the NBA lottery?
Maybe this will be the year the Minnesota Timberwolves hit the lottery.
We’ve recounted the Wolves’ lack of success in the NBA draft lottery before, but it’s worth repeating: Minnesota has been involved in the lottery 22 times previously and have never moved up in draft order. Neh-ver.
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The Wolves have moved down 12 times – including last year, falling from the 10th spot to 11th – and have held pat on 10 occasions. (Side note: The Wolves had and kept the No. 1 overall selection — hence couldn’t move up — once, in 2015).
We’ll find out Thursday at 7:30 p.m. (that’s the start time of the lottery, the actual picks will come a bit later, of course) if the Wolves can move up in this year’s NBA draft.
History is either not on their side (glass half-empty) or the odds have to finally be with them (glass half-full).
Minnesota finished with the third-worst record in the NBA. The good news is the Wolves will have the same chance at the No. 1 overall pick as the two teams ahead of them, Golden State and Cleveland — 14.0%. The bad news is that the NBA changed the lottery odds last year and under previous rules Minnesota would have had a 15.6% chance to land the top pick from the third slot.
The worst the Wolves can drop is to the No. 7 overall pick, but there’s just a 7.0% chance of that occurring. The best odds are for Minnesota to get the No. 6 pick (26.0%). The Wolves have a 13.4% chance to get the No. 2 overall pick, 12.7% for No. 3, 12.0% for No. 4 and 14.8% chance for No. 5.
So, yes, the odds are Minnesota will not have a top-three pick (40.1% combined chance), but, hey, maybe things will finally work out for the Wolves.
For what it’s worth, there is no consensus No. 1 pick this year but guards Anthony Edwards and LaMelo Ball and center James Wiseman are widely mentioned as top-three picks in various mock drafts.