Jason McIntyre’s Thursday Night Football Super 6 picks | WEEK 4

Aaron Rodgers has four touchdown passes this season — to four different receivers — but strangely none to his top target, Davante Adams. Still, I’m not going to fall for the Gambler’s Fallacy and say that Adams is necessarily due to score. 

I’ll lean to the field for first touchdown (and for most yards in the third quarter; there are just too many variables for me to hone in on a single player this early in the season), and Rodgers to have a solid first half passing against an Eagles secondary missing CB Ronald Darby (hamstring).

As mentioned above, Green Bay’s defense, coupled with the Packers’ own slow offensive start to the season and Philly’s first-quarter struggles, should mean single-digit scoring in the opening frame. And that same recipe should spell a quick first drive to start the second half.

Wentz will struggle vs the NFL’s No. 3 pass defense, and he’s down his top deep target, DeSean Jackson, who caught two TDs of 50+ yards in the opener, but will miss a 2nd straight game (abdomen).

The Packers have struggled offensively in the second half under new head Matt LaFleur, so the backdoor will be open for a late Eagles cover. I’m expecting the Pack to come away with the win, but Green Bay by fewer than 6 points seems like a very comfortable pick, given the spread.