Juan Soto trade possibilities: How all 29 MLB teams stack up
By Jake Mintz
FOX Sports MLB Writer
Unless you’ve been unplugging at a yoga retreat or hiking the Appalachian Trail for the past two weeks, you know that Juan Soto is very much on the trade block. Since the precocious 23-year-old megastar reportedly declined a $440 million offer from the Nationals, rumors both legitimate and reckless have popped up about his future.
Everyone wants to know: Where is Soto going? I don’t know, you don’t know, Soto doesn’t know, Ken Rosenthal doesn’t know, and the Nationals don’t know. Only time will reveal the truth. Until then, all we have is speculation.
Good thing speculation is rad as hell.
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But first, we must ask: What will it take to get Soto?
1. Prospects
Listen, the 2022 Washington Nationals might be a rubbish ballclub, but they’re not total dummies. This is not a trade for a bullpen arm or a bench bat; Soto is one of the five best players in the world, he’s still only 23, and he has the potential to alter a franchise. It’s going to take more than an IOU and a bag of jelly beans to trade for him. And because it doesn’t look like the Nats will be good in the near future, they probably want either prospects or really young major-leaguers under team control for a while.
2. Wins
There’s no point putting a V8 engine into a car with no wheels. Juan Soto is a free agent after the 2024 season. If your organization can’t build a competitive team around him in that window, stay seated. This discussion is not for you.
3. Money
This one is a bit more complicated. Whoever trades for Soto will likely be responsible for the remainder of his $17 million salary this year and his salary for the next two years before he hits free agency. Arbitration will dampen Soto’s salary below his true market value, but he’s still in line to get about $23 million next year and close to $28 million the following year.
There are teams in contention for Soto — Tampa *cough* Cleveland *cough* — that have been reluctant to drop that much coin on a single player. Just something to keep in mind.
Then there’s the extension component. A team could trade for Soto with no intent to extend him, but if a big-market club makes the deal, a potential extension would probably become a factor immediately.
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Ben Verlander looks at everything you need to know about a potential Juan Soto trade.
OK, enough jibber-jabber. Here are the 29 MLB teams, tiered and ranked by how likely it is that Soto ends up with them.
No way in a gazillion light-years
29. Oakland: The A’s are probably the team least likely to get Soto. They suck this year, will probably suck next year, have a middling farm system and never spend any money. They have one player on their current roster (Elvis Andrus) making more than $6 million per year.
28. Cincinnati: Similar to Oakland, this team isn’t winning, won’t win anytime soon and doesn’t have a strong farm system. Oh, and this ownership group just cut tons of payroll.
27. Kansas City: This farm system is underratedly meh right now, so a potential Soto package would probably have to include Bobby Witt Jr., and there’s no way the Royals trade Bobby Witt Jr.
26. Detroit: This team has been more disappointing than a rained-out wedding. If the Tigers had lived up to the hype in ‘22, this could have been a more realistic landing spot, but Soto alone cannot save this team, especially considering Detroit would probably need to part with Riley Greene and Tarik Skubal.
25. Anaheim: At this point, the Angels just bum me out. There’s not nearly enough in the minors for them to trade for Soto, and there aren’t enough wins on the ledger to make it worth it even if they had a stacked system.
The NL West is weird
24. Colorado: Who even knows what the Rockies are doing? They could probably scrap together a decent package for Soto (Ezekial Tovar and Zac Veen are underrated), but, like, why? Oh god, I just remembered they signed Kris Bryant.
23. Arizona: The D-Backs have an interesting, young group of position players who are matriculating or have already reached the big leagues (Alek Thomas, Corbin Carroll, Jordan Lawlar, Druw Jones), so they have enough hors d’oeuvres for the party. But this roster needs to add pitching before it’s ready to compete. A year or two from now, maybe Arizona would be a factor.
The long shots with eyes on the future
22. Miami: This is exactly the type of all-in, wild, live-for-today, don’t-worry-about-tomorrow move that former owner Jeffrey Loria would have been all about. But alas, he sold the team back in 2017, and the new ownership group has been much less flashy.
21. Pittsburgh: The Pirates’ farm system is one of baseball’s best, but a Soto deal would likely have to include one of Pittsburgh’s top three young guns (Oneil Cruz, 2021 No. 1 pick Henry Davis or the recently drafted Termarr Johnson). That steep price probably doesn’t jive with Pittsburgh’s contention calendar (2024 looks more realistic than 2023).
20. Baltimore: This organization is similar to Pittsburgh but a year ahead of schedule, considering the O’s have been a pleasant surprise this season. The Orioles’ system is so loaded with elite hitting prospects that they might be able to get a deal done without involving Adley Rutschman. Does Soto move the needle enough? Maybe, but a deal of this magnitude would be a notable zag for GM Mike Elias & Co.
Contenders without prospects
19. Houston: Any deal would need to include rookie sensation Jeremy Peña, who’s already tearing it up in the bigs. The system beyond that is thin, and “offense” isn’t exactly a weakness for Houston right now.
18. Philadelphia: The Phillies have a pair of young, exciting, recently drafted high school pitchers in their system (Mick Abel, Andrew Painter), but it’s likely the Nats would want the assuredness that comes with an elite position-player prospect. Also, the Phillies have $80 bajillion guaranteed to Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos over the next few seasons.
17. Milwaukee: Jackson Chourio, a wiry, electric center fielder in the Brewers’ system, is only 18 and has dropped jaws with his performance in low-A. But unless the Nats really, really think he’s the realest of all the deals, Milwaukee doesn’t have the pieces to get it done.
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16. Atlanta: The idea of Ronald Acuña Jr. and Soto together in the corners for a half-decade is exciting enough to make a senator twerk, but the Braves’ farm system is extremely bare after the Matt Olson trade (they don’t have a single top-100 prospect, per FanGraphs). Also, I’m skeptical the Nats would move Soto in-division
15. Chicago (AL): The underwhelming Sox could use an offensive boost, but they have a bottom-three farm system in baseball. It would take a group of young big-leaguers such as Luis Robert and Michael Kopech and Eloy Jimenez, and even then, the Nats would likely say no.
14. Minnesota: The Twins kind of rejuvenated their system with the José Berrios trade last year, but they still don’t have any no-doubt future All-Stars scampering about their minor-league system. Maybe they pull something off with the players they drafted, like, last week, but you’d imagine the Nats could find a better trade partner than the Twins.
AL East teams with jusssssst enough prospects
13. Toronto: To pull off a Soto coup, Toronto would have to part with top prospect Gabriel Moreno and practically every other player of value in the system after dealing Austin Martin and Simeon Woods-Richardson for Berríos last year. Maybe the Blue Jays entice the Nats with Bo Bichette (still only 24) and take on Patrick Corbin‘s contract, too? Eh, I’m pretty sure Washington can find a better package from a more desperate team.
12. Boston: It has taken a few years to rebuild the farm after former GM Dave Dombrowski dealt everyone and their brother away to build the 2018 title team (heck yes, flags fly forever). Good drafting, developing and the talent influx from the Mookie Betts trade have revitalized this farm enough that you could squint and build a deal (Marcelo Mayer and one of Triston Casas or Nick Yorke as headliners). But the Sox are tailspinning their way out of contention and might be sellers themselves soon.
Rich teams not winning this year
11. Chicago (NL): The Cubs’ signing Seiya Suzuki indicated that they plan to win within the next few years, even if 2022 has been rough. Remember when the Cubs traded all the beloved, famous guys who won the World Series? As sad as that was, it revitalized their farm system, giving them the ammunition to go and get Soto. The Cubs are a sneaky dark horse here.
10. Texas: Last offseason, the Rangers dropped a half-billion dollars on Corey Seager and Marcus Semien, so we know they’re trying to win sooner rather than later. The system is middle of the pack, so while Texas probably has enough to get a deal done, this organization can’t match the teams ahead of it on this list.
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