Judge, Ohtani and then who? Predicting all the AL MVP vote-getters

By Jordan Shusterman
FOX Sports MLB Writer

It’s one of the greatest MVP debates baseball has ever seen. 

There’s Aaron Judge on the brink of home run history, carrying the Yankees to an AL East title with an offensive season for the ages. And then there’s Shohei Ohtani, constantly making history of his own since no precedents even exist for him to replicate or chase. It’s a tremendously fun, if challenging, discussion, and I do not envy those who must vote for which of these incredible players is deserving of the award.

But it’s worth noting that once one determines whether they prefer Ohtani or Judge, the work doesn’t necessarily end there. Each year, the voting bloc — 30 in total, made up of two BBWAA members from each AL market — are instructed to rank 10 players on their AL MVP ballots. We all know Judge and Ohtani, in some order, will occupy the top two spots on every ballot. 

Beyond that, there are a handful of names we can reasonably expect to occupy the third through seventh spots on most ballots. After that? There’s no shortage of guys you could argue for, and each voter values players differently. We of course focus on the names at the top, but the 10 spots on the ballot allow for a much broader group of players to be included in the MVP discussion.

To that end, I looked at the past 20 years of AL MVP voting to get a sense of how many players typically appear on the AL MVP ballots. This means getting just one vote from one writer, even if it’s a 10th-place vote. For example, last season, Mike Zunino, Mitch Haniger, Austin Meadows and Kyle Tucker each received a 10th-place vote. That counts! They tied for 20th in AL MVP voting, and no one can take that away from them!

The most names we’ve seen on a ballot in the past two decades is 33 (2015 and 2006), and the fewest is 20 (2014 and 2010). On average, about 25 players appear each year. As such, I’m going to expand the never-ending Judge/Ohtani debate and try to predict the 25 players who’ll appear on the 2022 AL MVP ballot — or rather, the 23 beyond Judge and Ohtani. 

Put another way: These are the players I believe will receive at least one top-10 AL MVP vote. 

(Players listed alphabetically within each category.)

Duh (2): Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani

Don’t get me wrong: The debate over which of these sensational seasons deserves MVP fascinates me, too. But that’s not why we’re here. We know Judge (No. 1) and Ohtani (No. 2) will be atop every ballot. 

Let’s move on to the rest of the contenders.

Should be on every ballot (6): Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Xander Bogaerts, Andres Gimenez, Jose Ramirez, Mike Trout

This is the group of stars who will likely be duking it out for third-place and, thus, should be expected to appear somewhere on every voter’s ballot, barring some very strange decisions. Ramirez and Gimenez have powered Cleveland to an AL Central title; Ramirez is an MVP discussion mainstay, while Gimenez has quietly delivered one of the biggest breakouts of any player in baseball this season. 

In Houston, Altuve continues to shine as the face of the Astros‘ dynasty, while Alvarez has established himself as arguably the most dominant all-around hitter in the league. The Red Sox‘s last-place campaign has been a slog, but it certainly hasn’t been Bogaerts’ fault; he’s currently fifth in the AL in fWAR. 

And then there’s Trout, who has unfortunately missed time again due to injury but has still looked every bit as GOAT-like when on the field and has played enough games to warrant a healthy number of mid-ballot MVP votes. 

Should be on most ballots (5): Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa, Rafael Devers, Yandy Diaz, Kyle Tucker

You could argue for any of these guys as no-brainers who belong in the previous category, but I could also see them being left off some ballots, and so we have this tier of players awfully likely to get a bunch of votes. Bregman and Tucker have been tremendous but are the victims of having two other bona fide MVP candidates in their lineup. 

Their former teammate Correa has been excellent in his first year with the Twins, but Minnesota has been so disappointing that he hasn’t had many high-profile moments along the way. Devers hasn’t been quite as good as his infield mate Bogaerts, but his power numbers are awfully difficult to deny. 

Finally, Diaz might not be as much of a household name as the other guys, but I’d have him in my ninth or 10th spot on the ballot for his elite on-base skills and consistency for a Rays team that desperately needed him as the injuries piled up. Some voters might not be able to overlook the single-digit dinger total, but I’m not sure the Rays make the postseason without Diaz.

The starters (4): Dylan Cease, Alek Manoah, Framber Valdez, Justin Verlander

In the past 20 years of AL MVP voting, an average of three starting pitchers have appeared on the ballot each season; there have never been fewer than two or more than four. The obvious step here is to look at the AL Cy Young race, an intriguing debate of its own, especially this season, when many of the top contenders are teammates: Houston’s Justin Verlander and Framber Valdez, Toronto’s Kevin Gausman and Alek Manoah, and Cleveland’s Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie. And don’t forget about Dylan Cease and Shane McClanahan, who have been their teams’ clear aces all season. 

Each of these Cy Young candidates has a compelling case to appear on an MVP ballot, but it’s tough to say who’s most likely, especially with history telling us we shouldn’t expect more than four. I’ll go with Cease and Verlander, who seem like the safest bets as the current Cy Young favorites. I also think Valdez’s historic quality start streak will be enough to sway some voters. And I lean Manoah over Gausman for his significant advantage in ERA and workload.

The reliever (1): Emmanuel Clase

On average, only one or two relievers have appeared on AL MVP ballots this century, so we should be considering only a handful of names as legitimate possibilities here, if any. This year, Clase has been the gold standard among AL relievers, leading in both old-school saves (39) and new-school fWAR (2.1). 

You could maybe make a case for Toronto closer Jordan Romano or Mariners fireballer Andrés Muñoz for a 10th-place vote, but Clase feels like the obvious pick here, so there’s no need to overcomplicate this. If any AL reliever is getting down-ballot votes, it should be him.

The rookies (2): Julio Rodriguez, Adley Rutschman

I wouldn’t be shocked if Steven Kwan snags a vote or two as one of the faces of the AL Central champs, but his offensive production clocks in a tad below that of his fellow rookies. Plus, his team will have two guaranteed representatives on the ballot.  

As things stand now, Rodriguez and Rutschman feel like stronger cases after having arguably the biggest impacts on their respective teams’ seasons. That said, if Luis Arraez gets a down-ballot vote or two, so should Kwan!

The Blue Jays (2): Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

In addition to Gausman and Manoah, the Blue Jays have several guys you could argue are down-ballot candidates. Unlike last year, when Vlad Jr. and Marcus Semien had huge seasons that were obviously deserving MVP consideration, this year’s Jays lineup has seen much more balanced production. 

Vlad Jr. hasn’t been quite as spectacular as last year, but he’s still having an excellent season, and Bichette’s bonkers second half could propel him onto some ballots. Alejandro Kirk has been one of the best hitting catchers in baseball. George Springer has been injured some but generally great when he has played. 

And let’s not sleep on Matt Chapman or Teoscar Hernandez, who have each received MVP votes in the past! There are plenty to choose from, but the two I feel best about appearing on at least one ballot are Guerrero and Bichette.

The Rangers (1): Corey Seager

Another team with a staggering number of down-ballot candidates is Texas. Nathaniel Lowe has quietly developed into one of the better first basemen in the league; his 143 wRC+ ranks in the top 10 among AL hitters. Adolis Garcia is one of just two players in MLB with 25 HRs and 25 steals, and he’s tied with Alvarez for fourth in the AL in RBIs, with 96. Marcus Semien — who might get to 25/25 — rebounded from an awful first month to have another 5-plus WAR season. Seager stayed healthy and hit 30-plus dingers as a shortstop. 

And yet … the Rangers might lose 90-plus games, so none of these guys has been in the spotlight much at all. I think one of them will end up getting a vote or two, but it’s tough to guess who it will be. Lowe might be the most deserving, but for the purposes of this exercise, I’ll go with the safe option and say Seager, the most famous of the bunch, ends up on the ballot.

Other great seasons that could be rewarded with a vote (2): Jose Abreu, Anthony Rizzo

There are many names worth mentioning here: Sean Murphy as one of the best catchers in baseball, even on a lousy Oakland team. Taylor Ward‘s breakout in Anaheim. Anthony Santander‘s switch-hitting power surge for Baltimore, especially lately. Eugenio Suarez’s dynamite dingers and immaculate vibes for the Mariners. Arraez’s challenging for a batting title in Minnesota. Randy Arozarena‘s power-speed combo for the Rays.

But seeing as I’ve got only two spots left for this exercise, I’d give the nod to Rizzo and Abreu as the likeliest to appear down-ballot. Beyond Judge, Rizzo has been by far the most consistent offensive performer for the AL East champs — well, him or Matt Carpenter, whose unbelievable 47 games with the Yankees perhaps deserve consideration for this list as well! (I’m only half-joking.)

As for Abreu, while the White Sox’s season went completely sideways, the 35-year-old slugger was as reliable as ever. His over–the-fence power was certainly down, but he was tremendously productive at the plate; if his .376 OBP holds, it’d be his highest mark since his Rookie of the Year campaign in 2014. Plus, he has gotten MVP votes in six of his eight big-league seasons, so he’s always a safe bet. 

And there you have it: my 25 AL MVP vote-getters! We’ll find out in November how I did, and if someone I didn’t mention ends up on a ballot, I’ll love it.

Jordan Shusterman is half of @CespedesBBQ and a baseball writer for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @j_shusterman_.